The four games that will define UK’s 2016 football season
- Thread starter wildcatman26
- Start date
In order of likelihood to win:
1) Vanderbilt
2) South Carolina
3) Missouri
4) Mississippi State
1) Vanderbilt
2) South Carolina
3) Missouri
4) Mississippi State
Excluding UofL when was the last time we opened on the road? Seems like we played WKU in Nashville one year but other than that I'm drawing a blank. You're right So Miss will be a tough opener.
Lose the opener and a bowl game is out of the picture. The 5 games he mentioned will be ugly, bama, ul, and ut could be downright ugly(see florida against curry ugly) uga and uf will be loses but not as ugly. Just don't see enough defense to win 6 or 7, the front 7 has a lot to prove before I fall back into believing anything more than the usual 5 wins. I am not all that trusting of the exterior oline either, quarterback is still a question, the backs and receivers and tight end are sec level as is the secondary the rest are not or at least have not proven they are. I hope I am wrong but after 40 years of watching the same rerun my skepticism is justified. I believe we have a coach who will eventually figure out the coaching side of things. Go Cats.
I didn't watch USC's game, but saw most of Missouri, I would reverse those 2, Missouri looked bad. I think Vandy might be better, will be if they get any type qb play.
Pike - I am a UK grad ( and a U of L grad). I grew up a Card fan, but I honestly root for the Cats. Some have told me that that is not possible, but it is what it is. I have NO love for Southern Miss. That is for sure...
Article is pretty much spot on.
Southern Miss shouldn't be a threat, but if they are, it will be a VERY long season. The game is in CWS, and it will be their first with a new coach. Last year's Southern Miss team won 9 games against weak teams, and was basically 0-5 against any opponent ranked in the nation's top 60 or 70, including sound defeats against the likes of WKU & Marshall, the legit good Group of 5 teams on their schedule.
The Louisville game is a rivalry, and as we've seen in the past, crazy plays often happen, that can make games closer than they should be. But the better team almost always ends up winning that game, and as of now, it's hard for me not to think that Louisville won't be the better team.
So I think those 4 games are absolutely where the Cats' fate lies. It's hard for me to have much faith in UK beating Mullen, because they never do. But Vandy has had one of the worst offenses in FBS under their current coach, and South Carolina looks like a bit of a train wreck (still can't believe they hired Muschamp), and both are home games and look like wins to me. Mizzou is on the road where UK has not won, but that team had a Vandy-type offense a year ago, and is a complete mystery without Pinkel. To me, this may be the game that decides bowl eligibility.
Southern Miss shouldn't be a threat, but if they are, it will be a VERY long season. The game is in CWS, and it will be their first with a new coach. Last year's Southern Miss team won 9 games against weak teams, and was basically 0-5 against any opponent ranked in the nation's top 60 or 70, including sound defeats against the likes of WKU & Marshall, the legit good Group of 5 teams on their schedule.
The Louisville game is a rivalry, and as we've seen in the past, crazy plays often happen, that can make games closer than they should be. But the better team almost always ends up winning that game, and as of now, it's hard for me not to think that Louisville won't be the better team.
So I think those 4 games are absolutely where the Cats' fate lies. It's hard for me to have much faith in UK beating Mullen, because they never do. But Vandy has had one of the worst offenses in FBS under their current coach, and South Carolina looks like a bit of a train wreck (still can't believe they hired Muschamp), and both are home games and look like wins to me. Mizzou is on the road where UK has not won, but that team had a Vandy-type offense a year ago, and is a complete mystery without Pinkel. To me, this may be the game that decides bowl eligibility.
The biggest question mark in my mind remains the coaching staff. Can Stoops make adjustments during the game and at halftime? Can the assistants? We have new personnel and that is encouraging but the coach MUST produce during game time or we will remain the doormat of the SEC. Facts are facts. The Southern Miss game will determine our season. Lose that one and we have a two or three game win season. No argument about that. Coaches are the key because we have some decent talent. Talent that could win 6 games with the right staff. Maybe the changes will pay off, I pray they do.
Ah, that explains a lot.
A UK grad, I thought you had some intelligent comments at times, it made me wonder what was going on.
The best we have done against those 4 under Stoops is 2-2. 3-1 would be great this year.
We are 1-14 last five years against Vandy, UL and Miss State. Until we start beating those teams consistently, this program is not going anywhere, because we always have three or four SEC powerhouses on the schedule that will 95% of the time be an uphill battle.
Hope you are correct about S Miss. Do you know what talent is returning for them? I know you see a young QB like L Jackson really turning the corner for UL and suspect you anticipate the WR corps and line being much better. If an FSU fan said that UL will not be any better this year than last and pointed to the fact that UL did not beat any of the good teams on its schedule last year, I suspect you would take issue and offer a reasoned explanation for your position. What do you know about S Miss's returning team?
Exactly. Add in USCjr (IMO, UK's "true" SEC peer) and Mizzou. That would be a 4-20 record against those 5 teams over the past 5 years. We can argue (and certainly have argued) "why" UK has that record but it is what it is.
I'm sure Mitch has learned his lesson about "Home and Neutral" and will never again get into the scheduling mess he did with WKU. So the schedule for the foreseeable future is 3 OOC plus SEC and UofL. It appears that FL and TN are both in route to rejoin GA as best in the east. Some years will see AL, AU or LSU as a rotating team from the west. So the year in, year out, the schedule for UK does look like 3 beatable teams, 3 or 4 top caliber SEC teams plus the "others".
From time to time the Cats will upset an elite but sustained success begins and depends on consistently winning against the others, i.e., USCjr, Vandy, MSU, MO and UofL.
Peace
Probably no more than you do. [winking]
They return 13 starters, 7 on offense including their QB. Last year they averaged about 76 PPG and 509 YPG. They were #10 in passing at 334 YPG. QB Mullens was #6 nationally in passing yardage. They were #55 nationally on defense allowing 394 YPG. They unexpectedly lost HC Todd Monken to the pros pretty late in the post season time and replaced him with Alcorn States HC, Jay Hopson, who was a USM assistant under long time USM coach Jeff Bower. I'm sure you know who the new OC is.
After a couple of pretty bad years USM seems to be back on track. They have a solid football tradition and have never shied away from playing SEC opponents. I'm not sure what to expect with the new HC (and how much new staff he brought in) but, based on last year, there is no way you can call it an easy opener. JMO.
Peace
A little off topic, but I played against Jeff Bower in Georgia state championships back in the day. He was a dang good HS qb and those guys from Roswell beat us country boys like a drum.
I think UK will go 1-3 against those teams. They will need to go at least 2-2 to get a shot at a bowl game. In all honesty I am just worried about week one right now as USM will be a challenge. In all honesty a loss to them wouldn't surprise me and would virtually eliminate UK from a bowl game.
Not sure why UL isn't thrown in there. We have just as much a shot at them as we do MSU. Clearly those 5 plus UL have defined UK coaches as far back as I can remember. Except of course Missouri is a recent addition. At least we get Vandy, MSU and USC at home this year. Other than that I'm not so optimistic.
missou has talent on D and what looks like a good young qb. pinkel has proven to be a really good coach and his loss cant be undersold. scar on the other hand lost their best player, cooper. they have a few really good players on D but it remains to be seen if the O can do anything. musch never showed he could do much at uf and i just dont see the same level of talent he had a uf at scar. scar fans think they have assembled the best overall staff in the sec and i just dont see it.
i think we got 55-45 chance to beat mizzou and 60-40 to beat scar. if we score some damn points this year will beat vandy like a drum but if its a baseball score we could lose real easy. ms st we will be an underdog. i dont care who their qb is they will run the ball well and play good D. mullen is a good coach and i dont see them falling off a ton even without prescott.
i think we got 55-45 chance to beat mizzou and 60-40 to beat scar. if we score some damn points this year will beat vandy like a drum but if its a baseball score we could lose real easy. ms st we will be an underdog. i dont care who their qb is they will run the ball well and play good D. mullen is a good coach and i dont see them falling off a ton even without prescott.
"Last yrs So.Miss team won nine games against weak teams"...wow that sounds like somebody familiar...
Good job CC...my thoughts exactly they have people talking Heisman for LJ and being in the playoffs when they are in the same boat as So Miss as teams they beat
Yeah they are high on their staff for sure, but what choice do they have? I know I wouldn't trade our staff for theirs or would I trade one of our position coaches for one of theirs. I am pretty happy with the staff Kirby put together.
I think UK has a good chance and about the same chance to beat USC, Missouri and MSST with the best chance against Missouri, I just thought they looked bad in the spring game, not that USC looked great but Missouri still looked inept on offense. I think MSST will be down quite a bit this season, down so much they might not win an SEC game. I think UK has a better chance to beat Vandy, but they could have the best defense of the 4, Mason is a very good defensive coach and they improved as the season went alone, they just can't score consistently. But right now, I see all of those games being fairly close, Barker's development may change that opinon, and a key penalty or a turnover could decide the games. I think UT, UF and UGA, I hope, are a step ahead of UK right now in the East. UT, because they have an experienced qb coming back, not a great passer, but a tough runner and great leader will very likely win the East, it will be a huge disappointment for them if they don't.
UK will end the streak in Ben Hill Griffin stadium. Folks, there is more talent on UK's team since the 70s. They are becoming deep in quality players. QB will be very good if not outstanding for the foreseeable future. While the defensive line needs more polish, this team is closer than anyone thinks in becoming competitive in the SEC.
Honestly, Caveman, not a whole lot (re S. miss returnees). I watched them last year a few times, and wasn't that impressed. Better than they've been in recent years, but not good enough to beat teams in the top half of FBS. They were capable of moving the ball and scoring a bit, but their defense was basically a sieve against any decent offense. They did win 9 games, and that says something, but CUSA isn't the conference it used to be when teams like Houston, UC, UofL, USF, etc played there. Most of that conference is in the bottom half of FBS football, and that's basically who they beat.
Re: Louisville and who they beat, I get your point, but I think the ACC & SEC teams they beat last year were considerably better than the CUSA & Sun Belt teams that Southern Miss beat. I think you do too.
My point being...if the Cats can't win that first one, then they are almost assuredly no better than they have been, meaning they likely won't win 6 or more. That's all. Maybe I'm underestimating the Golden Eagles, but I doubt it. A lot like the team you opened against last year. I know that turned out being a nail biter, but it shouldn't have been, and it gave us a preview of the forthcoming season as well.
If you were looking to win the SEC East this year this is not the schedule you would want, but if you wanted to play this group of teams in the most optimal fashion to guarantee 6 wins and a bowl invite, this is the schedule you would want. The simple reason is all but one of the most winnable games are at home, only Mizzou is on the road. So while the road schedule looks like a tall mountain to climb, the home schedule looks like one that fans should enjoy.
I'm hopeful that we make enough progress this year so that next year when we play a lot of the East's top teams at home we will have opportunities to beat them and compete for the East.
I'm hopeful that we make enough progress this year so that next year when we play a lot of the East's top teams at home we will have opportunities to beat them and compete for the East.
Now is the time, my friend. I'm weary of "next year" or can we really win. We are not bowing down to anyone. We are attacking and playing to win.
Let me elaborate a bit more on the Golden Eagles 9-5 record last year.
Looking at the final Sagarin rankings, they played 5 teams ranked between 18 and 66, and went 0-5, losing by an average of over two TDs per game, staying within single digits only once, to a 6-7 Nebraska team, losing by 9.
And their 9 wins? Well, they did beat #68 Louisiana Tech. But the highest ranked of the other 8 was Rice, at #138! Here are the other 6 wins and their final Sagarin rankings:
153. UTSA
158. Texas St
163. UTEP
164. Old Dominion
180. North Texas
200. Charlotte
238. Austin Peay
That's absolutely putrid. And some of you want to compare this to Louisville's schedule? Come on, that's ridiculous.
Louisville's "worst" rated opponent was FCS Samford, at #125, which was higher than ALL of USM's wins, except La Tech. All other UofL wins were against Top 100 teams, with 2 being Top 50 (Texas A&M & NC St, neither at home). All 5 of their losses were to top-40 teams, by an average of 8 ppg.
You shouldn't be scared of this USM team. UK is just better, and considerably more talented. Bottom line, like I said, if they can't beat USM, going to be a "very" long season.
we will go 4-0 against them. no concern with "likelihood". This is the year Stoops gets UK over the hump and then I will sit back and be entertained by the same fans bashing Stoops cry that we can't keep him "when the big boys come calling".... This is going to be a fun filled season. imo of course.
Not sure what "point" you are referring to. I was just expanding on my opinion about USM. I don't think they were as good last season as some here think. I quoted your post, but I guess I was speaking to multiple people in this thread, not just you. Sorry if I misled.
Depends on how our o does. If we can force them to throw to keep up we'll be fine. If we are trying to win 21 to 17 then I agree.... that type of qb is a killer.
Think he was referring to the fact that you were demeaning So Miss sehedule when the teams otis beat in your fabulous finish you beat ZERO teams with a winning record that had a combined record of 19-41 and beat them by by a whopping combined score of 39 pts...
There's an obvious difference in the schedules of those two teams. If posters here are going to believe that teams like UK, Virginia, Syracuse, BC, NC St, and Texas A&M are on the same level as those 7 teams I listed above that USM beat that didn't finish the season in Sagarin's top 130, then God help them. Good gosh, I know you want to bash everything Louisville here, as a rival fan, but at least be somewhat realistic.
It is "my" opinion, that UK would have probably beaten USM last year. And if the Cats have improved at all, they should handle them this year, at home, in the opener, while healthy and USM is playing its first game under a new HC.