This is a pretty good, but depressing, write up for why this roster is serious flawed. TBH I find it's a bit poorly-written in parts, but the overall analysis and main takeaways are pretty much spot-on IMO.
The Kentucky Trolley Problem
Some excepts:
The more objective numbers back me up, or so I think. Last year, against Power Five competition, Kentucky's offense averaged (!) 38% from 3, 53% from 2, and 22.6 free throw attempts a night - all in the 86th-percentile or higher nationally. Through three games this year, these numbers sit at 25% from 3, 53% from 2, and 20 FTAs a night. Two of those are noticeable downgrades from a season ago despite playing more transition-heavy on average.
...
Kentucky worked last year because you could pair Carr or Almonor with Amari Williams, an unusual back-to-the-basket big who could serve as a fulcrum point for UK's offense without having to shoot. He wasn't much for quality rim protection, but at no point did he constrict UK's spacing simply by being on the court. For this to work, [Kam] Williams either has to find something he hasn't found in protecting the boards or Dioubate has to be so overwhelmingly physical that UK plays a version of bully-ball Mark Pope has never coached before.
When Dioubate and any center have shared the floor together against UK's three quality opponents, the offerings have been unkind. UK has been outscored by 22 points in 73 possessions despite outshooting opponents 61%-49% from two. These lineups take 61% (!) of their shots as jumpers despite UK shooting 31% from 3 and 33% from the midrange. Why? Well, you tell me where the driving lanes would be here.
...
Last year, our friend Isaac Trotter found a common theme amongst disappointing offenses: their point guard and center were either outright non-shooters or poor shooters. While Kentucky likely will not meet the metrics of Isaac's list by pure volume - Lowe did make 41 threes last year - the team stats for high-usage point guards who shoot 30% or worse from three aren't terribly encouraging. Lowe is certainly a better passer and playmaker for others than Butler, but Butler's archetype fit the Kentucky/Pope system much more fluidly.
...
Obviously, we haven't seen an optimal lineup yet this year, but UK's three best shooters on the roster are Collin Chandler, Kam Williams, and Trent Noah. Noah barely plays, so for a higher sample size, you can sub in Denzel Aberdeen. The Butler, Robinson, Almonor, and Brea quartet had a combined career 3PT% of 37.7%, but more importantly, they averaged 16.7 three-point attempts as a collective per game.
Chandler, Williams, Noah, and Aberdeen do combine to hit just over 36% of their threes. The problem: it's at a career rate of 9.8 three-point attempts per game. If you prefer per-100 rates, last year's four-pack of shooters averaged 10.5 3PAs per 100 in their individual career's. This year's four-pack: 8.4. The problem is that they only play together 25% of the time, and when Aberdeen - the lone shot creator out of this group - is off the court, it simply doesn't look good.
Scary to say this, but this may be as good as it's going to get. There's no magic bullet on the Kentucky roster to save a lack of perimeter gravity and a downward trend in shooting, unless Jelavic turns into a mix of Carr and Almonor on his own. Even with leaving room for that, it won't fix that Lowe is not only a poor shooter, he's Kentucky's worst perimeter defender on the roster.
The Kentucky Trolley Problem
Some excepts:
The more objective numbers back me up, or so I think. Last year, against Power Five competition, Kentucky's offense averaged (!) 38% from 3, 53% from 2, and 22.6 free throw attempts a night - all in the 86th-percentile or higher nationally. Through three games this year, these numbers sit at 25% from 3, 53% from 2, and 20 FTAs a night. Two of those are noticeable downgrades from a season ago despite playing more transition-heavy on average.
...
Kentucky worked last year because you could pair Carr or Almonor with Amari Williams, an unusual back-to-the-basket big who could serve as a fulcrum point for UK's offense without having to shoot. He wasn't much for quality rim protection, but at no point did he constrict UK's spacing simply by being on the court. For this to work, [Kam] Williams either has to find something he hasn't found in protecting the boards or Dioubate has to be so overwhelmingly physical that UK plays a version of bully-ball Mark Pope has never coached before.
When Dioubate and any center have shared the floor together against UK's three quality opponents, the offerings have been unkind. UK has been outscored by 22 points in 73 possessions despite outshooting opponents 61%-49% from two. These lineups take 61% (!) of their shots as jumpers despite UK shooting 31% from 3 and 33% from the midrange. Why? Well, you tell me where the driving lanes would be here.
...
Last year, our friend Isaac Trotter found a common theme amongst disappointing offenses: their point guard and center were either outright non-shooters or poor shooters. While Kentucky likely will not meet the metrics of Isaac's list by pure volume - Lowe did make 41 threes last year - the team stats for high-usage point guards who shoot 30% or worse from three aren't terribly encouraging. Lowe is certainly a better passer and playmaker for others than Butler, but Butler's archetype fit the Kentucky/Pope system much more fluidly.
...
Obviously, we haven't seen an optimal lineup yet this year, but UK's three best shooters on the roster are Collin Chandler, Kam Williams, and Trent Noah. Noah barely plays, so for a higher sample size, you can sub in Denzel Aberdeen. The Butler, Robinson, Almonor, and Brea quartet had a combined career 3PT% of 37.7%, but more importantly, they averaged 16.7 three-point attempts as a collective per game.
Chandler, Williams, Noah, and Aberdeen do combine to hit just over 36% of their threes. The problem: it's at a career rate of 9.8 three-point attempts per game. If you prefer per-100 rates, last year's four-pack of shooters averaged 10.5 3PAs per 100 in their individual career's. This year's four-pack: 8.4. The problem is that they only play together 25% of the time, and when Aberdeen - the lone shot creator out of this group - is off the court, it simply doesn't look good.
Scary to say this, but this may be as good as it's going to get. There's no magic bullet on the Kentucky roster to save a lack of perimeter gravity and a downward trend in shooting, unless Jelavic turns into a mix of Carr and Almonor on his own. Even with leaving room for that, it won't fix that Lowe is not only a poor shooter, he's Kentucky's worst perimeter defender on the roster.
