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The Road to a #1 seed

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DiehardDukeFan4Life

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I’m watching the replay of the BC/GT game and they were just talking about who Joe Lunardi has as his 1 seeds and as of yesterday he had Duke as the third overall 1 seed.
 
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BeerPoisoning

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DiehardDukeFan4Life said:
I’m watxhibg the replay of the BC/GT game and they were just talking about who Joe Lunardi has as his 1 seeds and as of yesterday he had Duke as the third overall 1 seed.
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Not to discredit your post but that virtually means nothing. The UNC game and ACCT happeninings will shape our seeding.
 
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Testkid

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dukiejay said:
If Duke goes 2-0 this week with wins over Wake and at UNC (no small feat), would everybody agree that we’re a lock for a #1 seed, regardless of what happens in the ACCT?

Also, win out (meaning ACCT, too) and we’re the #1 overall seed, right?
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Agree 100%. To me its important to get the 1 in the east. I think dc will be very duke friendly with alot of duke fans. I dont want to play a regional final against uk in Louisville
 
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DukeRulesBasketball

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Testkid said:
Agree 100%. To me its important to get the 1 in the east. I think dc will be very duke friendly with alot of duke fans. I dont want to play a regional final against uk in Louisville
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uk is still a one seed in the midwest. Duke is still a one in the south. I don’t want Duke to play in the south at all because of them having to go to Louisville to go to the final four because uk fans will still pack the yum center to root against us like they did when Duke had to play IU in Lexington in 2002. Also , when Villanova had to play Kansas in Louisville to go the final four in 2016, uk fans showed up at the yum center to root against Kansas.
 
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chov1125

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BeerPoisoning said:
Not to discredit your post but that virtually means nothing. The UNC game and ACCT happeninings will shape our seeding.
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I wouldn’t say nothing. We no longer have to earn a 1 seed, we just have to keep it. I think it is quite relevant because 2 teams we are in contention with (UNC and Virginia) are going to be in our way from here on out. Of course the UNC game and ACCT tournament will ultimately determine it, but assuming we match 1/2 here on out, we should get a 1 seed. What if Virginia loses tonight? What if UNC beats us but loses immediately in the ACCT and we either win the tournament or get to the final. We don’t need to have a better resume here on in, we just need to match them.

I’m assuming Lunardi has Virginia as the second #1 seed. If we match Virginia on in and they don’t beat us head to head in ACCT I don’t see any way the committee gives them a 1 and us a 2.
 
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HuffyJB

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The 2-2 (thus far) mark without Zion has cost Duke a little bit - no ACC regular season title (meaning an ACCT trophy requires a win over both UNC and UVA), and has moved them from #1 in the East. I think the only way Duke gets that back is to win out, ACCT included. Otherwise, UVA will get that spot despite Duke having swept them, as they remain UVA's only losses. It looks more likely that the South or Midwest is the destination if Duke does enough down the stretch to hang on to that #1 - the biggest thing being a win Saturday.
 
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Shatterthesky22

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Just looking at the 7 teams who could nab a 1 seed here's how Duke stacks up overall

1. UVA 26-2 SoS 19, Strength of Record 1
2. Zags 29-2 SoS 77, SoR 6
3. Duke 25-4 SoS 11, SoR 2
4. UNC 24-5 SoS 4, SoR 3
5. Tennessee 26-3 SoS 59, SoR 5
6. Michigan 26-4 SoS 21, SoR 4
7. UK 24-5 SoS 20, SoR 8

Just looking here, I would say the only two "locks" for 1 's are UVA and Gonzaga, if we go 2-0 but lose in our 1st round ACC game, that puts us at 27-5 overall, and gives 2 of the four below us ample opportunity to build stronger cases and certainly recency bias would come into play, as we would finish a pretty bad 4-3 since Zion went down. I say we need to win both this week, and at least make it to the title game to secure a 1.
 
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HeLooks2MuchLikeDave

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There are a bunch of different ways to end up with a #1 seed. But every single scenario would require 1 loss or less the rest of the way. It literally does not matter who we lose to though.

In my opinion, Duke, UVA, and UNC are the 3 best teams in the country and should be seeded 1, 2, and 3.
 
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Occy64

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Nov 4, 2018
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DukeRulesBasketball said:
uk is still a one seed in the midwest. Duke is still a one in the south. I don’t want Duke to play in the south at all because of them having to go to Louisville to go to the final four because uk fans will still pack the yum center to root against us like they did when Duke had to play IU in Lexington in 2002. Also , when Villanova had to play Kansas in Louisville to go the final four in 2016, uk fans showed up at the yum center to root against Kansas.
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I doubt uk sniffs the regionals. Don’t forget, they have the single worst big game coach in college basketball.
A Fl State/Cuse/insert name will send them home before the sweet 16.
 
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Jakarii

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Prob depends on who has more Quad one wins since they both blew each other out. Unless one losses in the next three games of the conference tournament where they will meet in the semifinals

pisgah101 said:
It’s bull crap if UK gets a 1 over Tennessee
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LouisiAaron

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As long as Zion is playing it really doesn't matter the region or seed. We have went into Virginia and beat them by double digits. That's the best win of anyone this season. This team loves to play road games. So playing in Louisville doesn't matter. As long as we play hard we will have the better chance to win every game from here on out
 
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DiehardDukeFan4Life

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chov1125 said:
I wouldn’t say nothing. We no longer have to earn a 1 seed, we just have to keep it. I think it is quite relevant because 2 teams we are in contention with (UNC and Virginia) are going to be in our way from here on out. Of course the UNC game and ACCT tournament will ultimately determine it, but assuming we match 1/2 here on out, we should get a 1 seed. What if Virginia loses tonight? What if UNC beats us but loses immediately in the ACCT and we either win the tournament or get to the final. We don’t need to have a better resume here on in, we just need to match them.

I’m assuming Lunardi has Virginia as the second #1 seed. If we match Virginia on in and they don’t beat us head to head in ACCT I don’t see any way the committee gives them a 1 and us a 2.
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If I’m remembering correctly when I saw them talking about Joe Lunardi’s 1 seeds he had Gonzaga as his overall 1 seed then Virginia as his second 1 seed with us as his third 1 seed and I think Tennessee was his fourth 1 seed but I’m not completely sure about that one
 
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chov1125

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DiehardDukeFan4Life said:
If I’m remembering correctly when I saw them talking about Joe Lunardi’s 1 seeds he had Gonzaga as his overall 1 seed then Virginia as his second 1 seed with us as his third 1 seed and I think Tennessee was his fourth 1 seed but I’m not completely sure about that one
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Joe is very good at nailing the seeds as a whole, ie if he says Duke will be a 1 seed they will likely be a 1 seed. The regions are the toughest to predict. With that said it’s easy to say this team is the top 1 seed this team is second so on and so forth. And there is still a lot outstanding. But say Duke and Virginia both win out and don’t see each other in the ACCT and neither team wins the tournament. And the committee only wants one of Duke or Virginia to be a 1 seed. I can’t see how it would be Virginia I just can’t. When you have 2 conference teams with arguably similar resumes (I still prefer ours) and 1 team swept the head to head battle, that team gets the nod IMO.
 
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dukiejay

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chov1125 said:
Joe is very good at nailing the seeds as a whole, ie if he says Duke will be a 1 seed they will likely be a 1 seed. The regions are the toughest to predict. With that said it’s easy to say this team is the top 1 seed this team is second so on and so forth. And there is still a lot outstanding. But say Duke and Virginia both win out and don’t see each other in the ACCT and neither team wins the tournament. And the committee only wants one of Duke or Virginia to be a 1 seed. I can’t see how it would be Virginia I just can’t. When you have 2 conference teams with arguably similar resumes (I still prefer ours) and 1 team swept the head to head battle, that team gets the nod IMO.
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If UVA wins tonight and then again this weekend, I can’t see a scenario that doesn’t have them as a #1 seed. If you look at their ACC schedule, it’s not that much different than Duke’s. They’ve simply been outstanding vs. everyone not named Duke. To play 31 games and have just two losses all season is an auto 1-seed, IMO.

That’s also why I maintain if Duke beats Wake and wins on the road at UNC there would be three #1 locks in us, UVA and Gonzaga. Could the Zags fall off the 1-line with a slip-up in their conference tourney? Possibly, but I think it’s doubtful.

Let me use this scenario....let’s say Duke, Gonzaga and UVA are both perfect this week. I contend all three are locks on the top line. Then, let’s say, by chance, UNC wins the ACCT with wins over both Duke and UVA (again, this is for argument’s sake) and neither Tennessee or UK win the SEC. Does UNC suddenly become the fourth #1 seed? We know they would have the SOS, they’d be ACC champions and let’s face it, like us, their name benefits them. Could three ACC teams be top liners come Selection Sunday?

(Obviously, it would have to play out almost exactly as I stated it above for the conversation to even happen.)
 
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FearTheBeard_rivals208808

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dukiejay said:
Too early to call right now. They'll likely meet up again the SEC tournament to make the committee's choice easier.
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Did the SEC move their champ game to Saturday? I feel like KY fans use to complain that the SECT champ game didn’t matter bc it ended right before the selection show. I could be confusing it with one of the other 1,427,396 things KY fans complain about.
 
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dukiejay

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FearTheBeard said:
Did the SEC move their champ game to Saturday? I feel like KY fans use to complain that the SECT champ game didn’t matter bc it ended right before the selection show. I could be confusing it with one of the other 1,427,396 things KY fans complain about.
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Most of the conferences have gone to Saturday for the championship. Is the Big Ten the last remaining power conference to still do Sunday? Their championship game usually ends less than an hour before the selection show.
 
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FearTheBeard_rivals208808

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dukiejay said:
Most of the conferences have gone to Saturday for the championship. Is the Big Ten the last remaining power conference to still do Sunday? Their championship game usually ends less than an hour before the selection show.
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I just checked. B10 is on Sunday and so is the SEC. SEC at noon. B10 at 2:30.
 
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chov1125

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dukiejay said:
If UVA wins tonight and then again this weekend, I can’t see a scenario that doesn’t have them as a #1 seed. If you look at their ACC schedule, it’s not that much different than Duke’s. They’ve simply been outstanding vs. everyone not named Duke. To play 31 games and have just two losses all season is an auto 1-seed, IMO.

That’s also why I maintain if Duke beats Wake and wins on the road at UNC there would be three #1 locks in us, UVA and Gonzaga. Could the Zags fall off the 1-line with a slip-up in their conference tourney? Possibly, but I think it’s doubtful.

Let me use this scenario....let’s say Duke, Gonzaga and UVA are both perfect this week. I contend all three are locks on the top line. Then, let’s say, by chance, UNC wins the ACCT with wins over both Duke and UVA (again, this is for argument’s sake) and neither Tennessee or UK win the SEC. Does UNC suddenly become the fourth #1 seed? We know they would have the SOS, they’d be ACC champions and let’s face it, like us, their name benefits them. Could three ACC teams be top liners come Selection Sunday?

(Obviously, it would have to play out almost exactly as I stated it above for the conversation to even happen.)
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I agree with pretty much all of this. There’s still too much outstanding to play out all these scenarios. In a vacuum I just can’t see Virginia getting a seed ahead of us unless they beat us or we lose again down the stretch. But in all likelihood both teams will get a 1-seed. A week from now and we’ll have a much better idea what the hypotheticals could be.
 
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BeerPoisoning

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dukiejay said:
If UVA wins tonight and then again this weekend, I can’t see a scenario that doesn’t have them as a #1 seed. If you look at their ACC schedule, it’s not that much different than Duke’s. They’ve simply been outstanding vs. everyone not named Duke. To play 31 games and have just two losses all season is an auto 1-seed, IMO.

That’s also why I maintain if Duke beats Wake and wins on the road at UNC there would be three #1 locks in us, UVA and Gonzaga. Could the Zags fall off the 1-line with a slip-up in their conference tourney? Possibly, but I think it’s doubtful.

Let me use this scenario....let’s say Duke, Gonzaga and UVA are both perfect this week. I contend all three are locks on the top line. Then, let’s say, by chance, UNC wins the ACCT with wins over both Duke and UVA (again, this is for argument’s sake) and neither Tennessee or UK win the SEC. Does UNC suddenly become the fourth #1 seed? We know they would have the SOS, they’d be ACC champions and let’s face it, like us, their name benefits them. Could three ACC teams be top liners come Selection Sunday?

(Obviously, it would have to play out almost exactly as I stated it above for the conversation to even happen.)
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If UVA wins tonight and against Louisville, regardless of ACCT, it would be nothing short of pure disrespect to denote them a #2 seed.

I think the cards have to roughly play out as you described for UNC to grab the 4th bid. UT/UK would have to lose the SEC. The early season Michigan loss / Gonzaga win will likely offset. I know they turned around and handled business at Louisville, but that home blow out vs the Cards in January looked bad. The win at Duke is tainted by Zion’s absence and losing to UVA at home hurts a little. But - the ACC is very, very elite this year and one could argue that they’d hoist a cleaner record in the SEC or B1G. It’s all maddening speculation.

I feel weird saying that I want UNC to be a #1 seed, but I don’t want them landing in our bracket. Just as much as I don’t want Virginia to either. I’d rather our #2 be a non-conference opponent that’s not Michigan. I know they’ve fallen off a little but they’re extremely well coached and talented. They were dismantling teams early-season, including a UNC blow out. I just have a gut feeling that they’re dangerous.
 
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dukephysics

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BeerPoisoning said:
I feel weird saying that I want UNC to be a #1 seed, but I don’t want them landing in our bracket. Just as much as I don’t want Virginia to either. I’d rather our #2 be a non-conference opponent that’s not Michigan. I know they’ve fallen off a little but they’re extremely well coached and talented. They were dismantling teams early-season, including a UNC blow out. I just have a gut feeling that they’re dangerous.
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They will not be in our bracket. They put the top teams from the same conference in different brackets. It's part of the seeding process. We will not see UVA or UNC before the final four.
 
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DukeRulesBasketball

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If unc were a two seed, they would never be in our region because we already play them twice a year in the regular season
 
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DukeDenver

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dukiejay said:
If Duke goes 2-0 this week with wins over Wake and at UNC (no small feat), would everybody agree that we’re a lock for a #1 seed, regardless of what happens in the ACCT?

Also, win out (meaning ACCT, too) and we’re the #1 overall seed, right?
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As long as we do not play a true road game at South Carolina in the second round I will be happy.
 
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