The 3-point thread got me thinking about overtime.
Though the methods for deciding tied matches have changed a lot over time*, overtime became a permanent way to decide them in 1957. While highly variable from 1957 to 2025, the percentage of overtime matches has been generally growing. During the continuous use of overtime, the percentage of overtime matches has never been higher than in this past season at 10.8%.
(The only thing that has me scratching my head is the drop off in 2016 and 2017. There were a few rule changes in 2016 that may, or may not, have led to the drop off (5 second rule, one of three calls for going OB), but it is not obvious to me that they do. If anyone has an opinion here, just shout it out.)
Too Much Is Never Enough
We have already discussed the individual overtime leaders, Illinois heavy John Lockhart (7-0 career OT record) for win % and Iowa 165 Ryan Morningstar (6-3) for volume, but who are the team leaders?
There is obviously a volume story here. The more years you go and the more wrestlers you send, the more OT matches you will have. So let's look at that first (minimum 75 OT matches).
- No surprise that the two most dominant teams in history, Oklahoma State and Iowa, also dominate the list of OT matches and OT wins.
- More surprising is that with such a high use rate Iowa also has the highest win rate at 61.8%.
- At the other end of the spectrum is NC State. They really need to get it done in regulation as their OT win % is an anemic 40.7%
But that analysis misses a few things. Just because you win a lot of OT matches does not mean you want to go to OT. Most teams have a lower winning percentage in OT than in regulation.
- Oklahoma State REALLLLLY wants to avoid overtime. Their regulation win % is 16.4% higher than their overtime win %.
- Purdue, on the other hand, wants to lure you into the deep water where they have a significantly better chance of winning (+9.8%)
- Central Michigan has probably optimized things. They get to overtime more frequently than anyone else AND they increase their win % once they are there by 6.7%.
