UFF is here to bring you some maths. Do you like maths? UFF likes maths.
I apologize for not getting WrestleSim predictions out before the tournament. I had some important modeling to complete, yes I know, how could it be more important than the NCAA wrestling tournament??? Also, there wasn’t really a need for WrestleSim to estimate the champion. I ran 1,000 realizations and PSU was at 100%. Then I ran 10,000 realizations and PSU was at 100%. Then I stopped and drank some beer.
I compared the actual results with the pre-tournament simulations and then calculated the percentile performance of the teams simulated. From high to low the results are shown below (over performers at top, under at bottom):
Stanford >99.9%
OkSt 99.5
Iowa 99.1
Nebraska 92.7
PSU 90.1
NCST 44.6
OhSt 24.5 (B10COY!)
ISU 10.3
Lehigh 6.8
VT 6.4 (Up and coming!)
Cornell <0.1 (Better call legal, FAST!)
Stanford had an incredible tournament mathematically and otherwise. Oklahoma State, Iowa, Nebraska, and PSU all had great tournaments. Numbers can sometimes fib a little bit, or at least it is important to understand context. For example, because Iowa’s projected total was fairly meager at 59.24, a couple of points can make a big difference. Being on the receiving end of 2 points for a medical forfeit boosted them from 91.8 to 99.1 percentile. On the other hand, they lost some points (most likely) from the medical forfeit of Ferrari. Call that a wash.
IT IS MUCH HARDER TO EXCEED YOUR POINT TOTAL SIGNIFICANTLY WHEN YOU ARE AT THE TOP.
Before you go anointing David Taylor (who I like) as the new Dalai Lama (Gunga Ga Lunga), some context is in order. Oklahoma State had a great tournament - UFF was impressed by Vega. I had seen Jax destroy some good people so I wasn’t surprised by his result. BUT, Oklahoma State had some VERY good fortune that usually doesn’t all happen to one team.
Penn State bonus points finished 12th in the team race. Penn State’s performance is equivalent to having 12-13 wrestlers. The talk of Oklahoma State surpassing PSU is crazy!!! It isn’t like there are unlimited points. Your point gains must come from someone else’s losses. UFF’s expectation is the gap will once again be 50 points when the dust settles in 2027. Make your futures bets now and give the winnings to the PSWC.
UFF
PS Penn State's bonus points were 99.6% compared to expectation
PSS The Ferrari's accounted for 33% of all medical forfeits in the tournament.
I apologize for not getting WrestleSim predictions out before the tournament. I had some important modeling to complete, yes I know, how could it be more important than the NCAA wrestling tournament??? Also, there wasn’t really a need for WrestleSim to estimate the champion. I ran 1,000 realizations and PSU was at 100%. Then I ran 10,000 realizations and PSU was at 100%. Then I stopped and drank some beer.
I compared the actual results with the pre-tournament simulations and then calculated the percentile performance of the teams simulated. From high to low the results are shown below (over performers at top, under at bottom):
Stanford >99.9%
OkSt 99.5
Iowa 99.1
Nebraska 92.7
PSU 90.1
NCST 44.6
OhSt 24.5 (B10COY!)
ISU 10.3
Lehigh 6.8
VT 6.4 (Up and coming!)
Cornell <0.1 (Better call legal, FAST!)
Stanford had an incredible tournament mathematically and otherwise. Oklahoma State, Iowa, Nebraska, and PSU all had great tournaments. Numbers can sometimes fib a little bit, or at least it is important to understand context. For example, because Iowa’s projected total was fairly meager at 59.24, a couple of points can make a big difference. Being on the receiving end of 2 points for a medical forfeit boosted them from 91.8 to 99.1 percentile. On the other hand, they lost some points (most likely) from the medical forfeit of Ferrari. Call that a wash.
IT IS MUCH HARDER TO EXCEED YOUR POINT TOTAL SIGNIFICANTLY WHEN YOU ARE AT THE TOP.
Before you go anointing David Taylor (who I like) as the new Dalai Lama (Gunga Ga Lunga), some context is in order. Oklahoma State had a great tournament - UFF was impressed by Vega. I had seen Jax destroy some good people so I wasn’t surprised by his result. BUT, Oklahoma State had some VERY good fortune that usually doesn’t all happen to one team.
- Doucet (#7) gained about +7 points over expectations because of injuries and the way his bracket worked out. He beat 26, 10, 20, 18, and 4 (FFT) while losing to 2 and 3.
- Merrill (#7) benefitted from the Elam injury and a likely 7th place finish to gain +12 points over expectation.
- Ryder (#22) benefitted from a MFF in the blood round to gain +6.5 points over expectation.
Penn State bonus points finished 12th in the team race. Penn State’s performance is equivalent to having 12-13 wrestlers. The talk of Oklahoma State surpassing PSU is crazy!!! It isn’t like there are unlimited points. Your point gains must come from someone else’s losses. UFF’s expectation is the gap will once again be 50 points when the dust settles in 2027. Make your futures bets now and give the winnings to the PSWC.
UFF
PS Penn State's bonus points were 99.6% compared to expectation
PSS The Ferrari's accounted for 33% of all medical forfeits in the tournament.
