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Vegas line for Saturday

T

The_Catfather

All-Conference
May 21, 2002
13,811
4,555
92
Cats favored by 11.5. Even though my heart can't handle it, I'd be happy with a 1-point win and a relatively clean bill of health from our guys afterwards.

Info below from Sea of Blue:

Odds: FanDuel Sportsbook has Kentucky favored by 11.5 points with an over/under of 158.5 points. That spread is a bit surprising with Kentucky potentially not having Lamont Butler and/or Andrew Carr, but the Hogs have struggled this season. EvanMiya gives Kentucky an 86.3% of winning, while ESPN is at 81.8%. BartTorvik and KenPom say 86% and 84%, respectively. However, these percentages are likely factoring in Lamont Butler and Andrew Carr, but there’s a real chance neither suits up on Saturday due to injury. In that case, the percentages would likely drop to somewhere in the 65-75% range.

Predictions: The analytics all expect Kentucky to win by double digits. EvanMiya (83-71) and BartTorvik (86-74) have the Cats winning by 12 points. KenPom has them winning by 11 points (84-73) and Haslametrics by 10 (84-74). Personally, I think Kentucky will be bothered some by Arkansas’ athleticism but they eventually pull away and win 83-74.
 
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BlueBomb

BlueBomb

Heisman
Apr 3, 2009
10,681
19,498
103
Mike-D said:
Yeah, that's not how Vegas works.
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Actually, I think it is, but feel free to correct me if I'm wrong, because I'm no gambler.

Vegas employs a gazillion "odds compilers." These individuals set the opening odds for every game. They are paid to take everything into account, including injuries and when a past coach comes back for the first time. They are so good at their job, that Vegas never has to worry about losing over the long haul...as we all know.

Of course, after the initial odds are set by the experts, bettors determine the final odds as they essentially decide if they think the compilers were "educated" enough when establishing the opening line.

I suppose I'm just saying I THINK Vegas would take into account anything that might impact the spread. They are too accurate and successful not to. If I'm wrong about that, no disrespect meant.
 
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F

FirewithFire

Heisman
Jan 16, 2021
4,932
15,920
0
Spread is to big. We have all seen that when Cal wants to ,really, really bad he can get motivated enough to channel old Cal. They will be ready. Add in the Rupp curse of the opposing team hitting threes like layups and that will keep it close.

Can't turn the ball over. Have to rebound. Most importantly we have to find a way to stop Thiero from going downhill to the basket all game long or he will make what Nelson did look like grade school crap.

Will add, I hope we blow them out by fifty. Sixty wouldn't be to much.
 
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B

Blueathletics

All-Conference
Dec 21, 2007
4,955
3,577
0
The_Catfather said:
Cats favored by 11.5. Even though my heart can't handle it, I'd be happy with a 1-point win and a relatively clean bill of health from our guys afterwards.

Info below from Sea of Blue:

Odds: FanDuel Sportsbook has Kentucky favored by 11.5 points with an over/under of 158.5 points. That spread is a bit surprising with Kentucky potentially not having Lamont Butler and/or Andrew Carr, but the Hogs have struggled this season. EvanMiya gives Kentucky an 86.3% of winning, while ESPN is at 81.8%. BartTorvik and KenPom say 86% and 84%, respectively. However, these percentages are likely factoring in Lamont Butler and Andrew Carr, but there’s a real chance neither suits up on Saturday due to injury. In that case, the percentages would likely drop to somewhere in the 65-75% range.

Predictions: The analytics all expect Kentucky to win by double digits. EvanMiya (83-71) and BartTorvik (86-74) have the Cats winning by 12 points. KenPom has them winning by 11 points (84-73) and Haslametrics by 10 (84-74). Personally, I think Kentucky will be bothered some by Arkansas’ athleticism but they eventually pull away and win 83-74.
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Even with Butler and Oweh banged up...?
 
B

Basscat1987

All-Conference
Jan 2, 2021
1,016
2,357
0
UKfanINcoach said:
I'm concerned Wagner, Big Z, and Thiero will be motivated to play hard. Arky will have to shoot the 3 well to have a chance.
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Pope is going to leave Wagner, Richmond, Brazille, Jonas and Thiero open for 3 to start. My hope is that if they are actually hitting their shots early he won’t let us be down 10 at half before he makes the adjustment
 
R

rivercatinfl

All-Conference
Nov 21, 2012
1,702
1,595
97
ArtLaibsGhost said:
Unfortunately I look for Wagner and Thiero to have good nights, I think UK wins a close game.
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Yes! To me Wagner is the guy I expect to go off. He is shooting y the 3 ball decently and has the about drive the ball. Not sure who guards him if Butler is out. Neither Brea or Jackson can match his speed.
We'll see. UK by 5.
 
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C

CatOfDaVille

All-American
Mar 30, 2007
6,173
8,100
0
I'd be concerned if this game was in Fayetteville, but it's not. Pope knows how bad the fanbase wants this game.

That said, I won't be touching this one, but if I did I'd probably take Arkansas and the points.

Cats by 7. We keep a comfortable 8-12 pt lead most of the game, but it tightens up in the last 3 mins when Cal goes to the press.
 
K

kywildcats8

All-Conference
Oct 1, 2019
1,235
1,565
0
CatOfDaVille said:
I'd be concerned if this game was in Fayetteville, but it's not. Pope knows how bad the fanbase wants this game.

That said, I won't be touching this one, but if I did I'd probably take Arkansas and the points.

Cats by 7. We keep a comfortable 8-12 pt lead most of the game, but it tightens up in the last 3 mins when Cal goes to the press.
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Cal doesn't practice the press, never saw him :)
 
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B

BigBlueGuru

All-Conference
Feb 10, 2007
1,715
2,815
103
We better be ready for them to be extremely physical and aggressive on defense, be able to stop the drives to the basket and most importantly rebound and dont turn the ball over.
 
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L

L.O.D.

All-Conference
Feb 4, 2024
986
1,265
57
Seems like Vegas thinks a UK blowout an trying to entice ARK. Bettors
 
A

Aike

Heisman
Mar 17, 2002
75,314
45,922
90
I’ve got it at -7.5. Probably can push that out a little if we are able to play the pace that we want.
 
S

sjk0000

Junior
Jul 13, 2006
561
354
63
FirewithFire said:
Spread is to big. We have all seen that when Cal wants to ,really, really bad he can get motivated enough to channel old Cal. They will be ready. Add in the Rupp curse of the opposing team hitting threes like layups and that will keep it close.

Can't turn the ball over. Have to rebound. Most importantly we have to find a way to stop Thiero from going downhill to the basket all game long or he will make what Nelson did look like grade school crap.

Will add, I hope we blow them out by fifty. Sixty wouldn't be to much.
Click to expand...
The difference is Cal usually has a much better roster. No one on his roster this year is a takeover the game type of player.
 
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B

BGCATFAN2012

All-American
Aug 19, 2020
3,702
5,225
113
Nothing fixes opposing teams 3 point shooting like Rupp. Arkansas will have thier best shooting night of the year tomorrow night and near 70% from 3. With two banked in from 30ft.
 
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U

_ukcat

All-Conference
May 22, 2002
15,038
3,388
0
Ark. will shoot the lights out and play their best game of the year. I feel UK wins but would take Ark. plus the points, figure CATS by 3-5
 
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D

Digger-Cat

All-Conference
Oct 31, 2024
2,317
4,214
0
JFCats22 said:
11.5 seems like a lot. I wouldn’t be shocked if we blew them out by 20 but also wouldn’t be surprised if it’s a 2-4 point game with a minute left.
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If we want our metrics to improve, these are the games where UK has to get the job done.

Houston, who up until recently, hadn't beaten anyone until Kansas crapped the bed, has been at the top in all the metrics, because they absolutely destroy bad teams. The Cats need to throttle Arkansas today. If the metrics say we shoukd win by 12, we need to get em by 20 and not let up.
 
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D

Digger-Cat

All-Conference
Oct 31, 2024
2,317
4,214
0
sjk0000 said:
The difference is Cal usually has a much better roster. No one on his roster this year is a takeover the game type of player.
Click to expand...
Yeah, when Wagner is your go to guard, you're not going anywhere.
Put Oweh on Davis and make Wagner take long shots and he will gladly take long shots.
 
D

Digger-Cat

All-Conference
Oct 31, 2024
2,317
4,214
0
rivercatinfl said:
Yes! To me Wagner is the guy I expect to go off. He is shooting y the 3 ball decently and has the about drive the ball. Not sure who guards him if Butler is out. Neither Brea or Jackson can match his speed.
We'll see. UK by 5.
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Wagner is shooting the 3 ball decently? When? I've seen more cinder blocks come off his hands than anything. He's a guy you back off of, but put a hand up on, but he's no Koby Brea.

We don't have a guy that can guard Wagner? We just shut Ziegler down and he's a far better floor general than Wagner is.
 
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A

ArtLaibsGhost_rivals

All-American
Dec 6, 2020
4,710
8,736
0
I've seen Army play twice. Once the missed everything and got thumped and the second time was the conference game they won. Played poorly in that one as well but other team was worse. If we hit shots and don't get on too much foul trouble we win comfortablty. If the refs call 50 fouls it will be dicey
 
R

rivercatinfl

All-Conference
Nov 21, 2012
1,702
1,595
97
Digger-Cat said:
Wagner is shooting the 3 ball decently? When? I've seen more cinder blocks come off his hands than anything. He's a guy you back off of, but put a hand up on, but he's no Koby Brea.

We don't have a guy that can guard Wagner? We just shut Ziegler down and he's a far better floor general than Wagner is.
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Wagner is shooting the 3 @ 33%. Better than last year.
I'm not saying he won't miss. He does has the ability to drive the ball. We've seen that by teams all year as a problem. He still has trouble finishing. But if he has one of those games, he will be an issue.
 
O

Old Blue Fart

All-Conference
Mar 23, 2014
1,571
4,042
76
The line ha moved 2 full points since it opened at 11.5; down to 9.5
Seems money is coming on on Arkansas to cover spread.
Then again, I was told once from a bookie to watch the money move and make your decision knowing that most of the time the general public is wrong.
Just saying,
 
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