Eventually, Duke in their easy conference will be number one in the rankings. They will be the number one overall seed. All of ESPN will predict them to win the championship and they will get the easiest bracket, but there is good news. They don't have the team to win it all.
What we all know . . .
- Thread starter rnfoster
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I'll be rooting for our toughest conference rivals (Bama/Auburn/UT/UF) to stay alive in the tourney until Duke is out. I don't want them getting a cakewalk and I'm perfectly fine if it's one of our conference rivals that has to take them out.
I'm not convinced that Scheyer can coach them out of a jam. I don't think they are an elite team. I expect a lackluster tournament from them and Scheyer's seat warms up.
I agree. If Jamal Shead hadn’t got hurt, they wouldn’t have beaten Houston last year. Then they let NC State beat them for the second time in two weeks.
Their team is talented, but young. And their conference schedule isn’t doing them any favors in terms of preparing them for the tournament. I predict a sweet 16 or elite 8 finish for them, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see them go down to a highly motivated 9-seed, nor would I be shocked to see them reach the FF. But a title team? I don’t see it.
Well, let's face it: We benefitted from having an "easy" conference for decades. I won't throw shade at Duke just because the ACC is down right now and the SEC is a murder's row. There's too many other valid reasons to pick on those bastards.
Duke is good. Flagg is the real deal. (Did you know he was only 17 when the year started? AMAZING) But as we all saw too many times with Cal, a team full of freshmen in a pressure packed tourney game tend to lose composure. I’d take Auburn over them 7 or 8 times out of 10 in that scenario.
I think unless Auburn wins the SEC with something like a 16-2 record, Duke will get the number 1 overall seed. They'll definitely get a 1 seed. And they have the talent to win it all. But the question is will playing almost no quality teams since December hurt their chances in March... We'll see. This is a question UK fans used to ask about our own team when the SEC sucked!
Auburn will have the revenge factor in their favor too if they meet up in the NCAAT.
Despite how much is often made of it in these kind of discussions, playing in a strong conference has historically had a weak to non-existent correlation to winning championships in the tournament. It just doesn’t matter much if you have a good team, and I begrudgingly have to admit that Duke has a good team this year. They gave us all we wanted in Atlanta despite being a much younger team early in the season, are to this point the only ones to beat Auburn, and they have the metrics to say that none of that was a fluke.
Now, none of that says they’re a lock to win the whole thing. The odds always favor the field even when you’re talking about a good team in the tournament and upsets happen. All I’m saying is that the talk of them being a media created paper tiger isn’t supported by how they’ve played so far, and it won’t be because of the ACC as a whole being down if they fall short in March.
Now, none of that says they’re a lock to win the whole thing. The odds always favor the field even when you’re talking about a good team in the tournament and upsets happen. All I’m saying is that the talk of them being a media created paper tiger isn’t supported by how they’ve played so far, and it won’t be because of the ACC as a whole being down if they fall short in March.
I don't think they have enough to go along with Flagg to be a contender plus they don't have a bench that contributes much of anything.
I think people are letting their anti-Duke/Cooper Flagg hype bias get in the way of objectively evaluating them this year. Yes, the ACC is a bad conference this year, but this Duke team is legit. They're currently the third highest ranked Kenpom team of the last 25 years, behind Duke's 2001 title team and our 2015 team.
Always tough to win when it's 5 vs 8.
I think the lack of experience as well as playing in a soft conference will hurt them. Using the CCC "talent above all else" philosophy as a way to win titles was proven NOT to work. Cal won one, But that was it, the EXCEPTION to the rule. And I do believe it was because it was a different era, rather than anything else. It could work then, but not now. That title team in 12' had the benefit of a tough league and schedule, and if it weren't for the fact they lost the SEC tournament, even THEY might've fallen in the NCAA tournament. Having a tough schedule and conference is an important factor in even the BEST teams season, as it goes along.
The CCC philosophy of acquiring raw talent wont even win you that many more regular season games now, rather than as it did before.
Adapt, improvise, overcome.
Good words to live by.
The CCC philosophy of acquiring raw talent wont even win you that many more regular season games now, rather than as it did before.
Adapt, improvise, overcome.
Good words to live by.
Same. I know it’s fun to poke at UT for never making a final 4….
But reality is, come tournament time it’s all about:
1) our own success
2) the other programs with multiple national titles not winning another one
With Uconn taking a dive and UNC not being in the conversation it's wide open and Duke and Kentucky have a decent chance with them being ahead due to the easy conference and media bias they will receive. Our schedule is brutal and February will be 500 ball for us while they win out with only a few games to challenge them. It's hard to worked up yet since we have another month before March and then it's Mark Popes time to get us over the hump.
That’s sort of true, BUT there weren’t always about 25 teams that COULD win it all back in the day. There were maybe 6-8. Duke is toast come March. The Illinois game should prove this in a couple weeks. Duke may win but I’d say they’ll get help to win that particular game. Illinois is not Pittsburgh, Boston College, or UNC.
Maybe you are correct...but I never remember the SEC being as bad as the ACC right now. It is awful. Duke hasn't played a single ranked team since they beat Auburn 10 games ago. And they play one ranked team the rest of the year....Illionos. That is pretty damn bad.
I'm not getting the vibe anyone thinks they aren't good or aren't at least a minimal threat to win it. What I'm seeing is, they'll get an inflated seed in the tournament to help them get the best chance possible to win it, undeservedly.
Itll look better when they knock off some higher seeds, but getting lower seeds means you're theoretically traveling further. So there is plenty to not like.
Yeah I’m saying there could be some rare cases where playing in this brutal SEC could help a team with seeding I.e. catch some teams with tired legs and broken bodies and snag an unexpected win or two to move up. Losses don’t hurt you that much. By and large though I agree with your point for sure
Of course, but then maybe they loose to a bad seen in the tournament, which would be hilarious.
They 1000 percent have the team to win it, they are loaded. The only question with them is coaching
Duke could win it all as they have the talent to do so. Will they? Doubtful.
There's just so much parity n the sport now and makes for more interesting ncaa (since uconn isn't a juggernaut for 3rd year n a row).
There's just so much parity n the sport now and makes for more interesting ncaa (since uconn isn't a juggernaut for 3rd year n a row).
It will be interesting to see how the NCAA can position them to avoid SEC teams early on.
But they might not be able to. Chances are almost every team in the field is going to have to go through (potentially) an SEC team or two just to get an elite 8.
Duke or any team can't control how strong or weak their conference is. I remember years we rarely had to break a sweat in the SEC. The SEC has actually been much weaker conference in basketball compared to ACC until maybe last two to three years. Duke may have a weaker schedule than us this year, and we beat them in Atlanta, but I sure as heck do not want them in our bracket come March. Their freshmen will NOT be freshmen in March and Flagg will NOT be 17. They are good and I bet Vegas will have them high on the betting chart to cut the nets down. Vegas is usually pretty accurate. I would think Duke will beat Illinois with very little sweat. This will continue to boost our resume with our Duke win. Worrying about Duke is a waste of our time. Our thoughts and energy better be in Nashville on Saturday. Vandy will be a challenge, they are a decent ball club.
I seriously doubt Duke beats Illinois without breaking much of a sweat. I figure the zebras will screw Illinois. That might not be enough.
If you really want to get pissed off, watch the friendly Duke whistle at Wake Forest Saturday. This will be part of protecting Duke’s #1 seed. Smell it coming a mile away.
This is all true. For comparisons sake....
Per Ken-Pom, in 2015 the 2nd best SEC team was Arkansas (29th), Florida 3rd (34th) Georgia 4th (35th)
Per Ken-Pom, in 2025 the 2nd best ACC team is Louisville (24th), Clemson 3rd (27th) UNC 4th (32nd)
Now with that said, the 2025 ACC has some all-time bad teams (Miami, BC) that are no better than an average mid-major team.
Miss St and Missouri in 2015 were at that level though, coming in at #159 and #192 in Ken-Pom.
I can't recall, but were people saying the terrible SEC schedule in 2015 would hurt UK come tournament time?? I don't believe that was the case.