What would a good coach at NU look like?

[Kat burglar]

Serious question.

Given the admissions constraint, what would a "good coach" do differently?

Is it just wins and losses? If so, what would a "good coach"s" record look like.

Of course 30-0 would be a "good coach" but that is not happening.

Winning record in Big Ten?

regular NIT and NCAA teams?

What constitutes a good coach?

 

[Kat burglar]

Personally, I think a "good coach" would:

Have teams that rank between 35-70 in Kenpom 70% of the time
Win 50% of conference games 70% of the time
Make the NIT or NCAA 50% of time.
Have a Kenpom Adjusted Efficiency Margin between 10 and 15 70% of the time.

That would put us consistently in the middle of the Big Ten. One more conference win would have put us a tie for 9th.

We are not there yet. Would a different coach get us there? Maybe.

Could we get there going forward. Maybe

Are we close? Probably

 

[Sec_112]

Good questions. Good answers. I'll answer later. I have brackets to work on!!

I think Burglar's answers are more in the department of what our expectations are. How do we realistically define a successful coach at NU? That's a good part of the equation.

My first thoughts about the profile of a good NU coach lean more toward what a better coaching candidate looks like.

 

[IdahoAlum]

A “good coach” at Northwestern is somebody who can outcoach luck. He or she wins more close games than a coach would normally win based solely on random odds. He or she coaches with an identity or vision in mind, and recruits accordingly. In fact, he or she is so well known for that identity that players who fit the mold actively seek out that coach and want to play for him or her. His or her players are exceptional fundamentally, year after year. His or her players show growth and development every year in the program. He or she is constantly in the top three of voting for coach of the year honors, no matter where their team finishes, because they are so respected by their peers. Finally, former players tell tall tales about how tough their coach was back in the day, but also talk about how much they respect him or her, and they demonstrate that respect by sending more players NU’s way.

 

[torque-cat]

A “good coach” at Northwestern is somebody who can outcoach luck. He or she wins more close games than a coach would normally win based solely on random odds. He or she coaches with an identity or vision in mind, and recruits accordingly. In fact, he or she is so well known for that identity that players who fit the mold actively seek out that coach and want to play for him or her. His or her players are exceptional fundamentally, year after year. His or her players show growth and development every year in the program. He or she is constantly in the top three of voting for coach of the year honors, no matter where their team finishes, because they are so respected by their peers. Finally, former players tell tall tales about how tough their coach was back in the day, but also talk about how much they respect him or her, and they demonstrate that respect by sending more players NU’s way.

Sounds like you are describing Fitz.

 

[IdahoAlum]

Sounds like you are describing Fitz.

Hadn’t thought of that, but yeah he does fit the mold.

 

[7th Cir. Cat]

Who would be our Fitz? Hardy? Baldwin? It's a tough comp because Fitz was an All-American and is on the shortlist of best college linebackers in the last 50 years. We just don't have anyone like that (other than Esch and he's moved on from the sport) Let's see how much B-Mac likes coaching . . .

 

[Sec_112]

Burgler, I appreciate that you're putting facts behind your ideas. I think the first two facts lead to the third idea, "Make the NIT and NCAA 50% of the time."

My concern about the 50% expectation is that there will be a period of time before this program is an 50% NIT/NCAA team. It will be an INCREDIBLY rare coach who can reach these goals this within five years - especially considering it's never been done.

Whoever is about to point to the '08-'12 Carmody teams as an example, please don't. There's an obvious exception in those years. So yes, it's never been done.

I'd also add a restriction to Burgler's list: No KenPom lower than 80 only once every 5 years.

However, all these measurements so far have the 20-20 vision of results. We've already signed the guy and now we're going to measure if he's good. That's kind of easy. At some point, it becomes pretty obvious that a coach is in trouble.

We're eight years into Collins and it's pretty obvious to say - at best - he's not on stable ground.

I want to know what a good coach looks like BEFORE the results. What does a better coaching candidate look like?

a) Proven head coaching experience
b) Strong experience as a head or assistant coach in a P5 conference
c) Someone besides me out here has been pushing this idea and I think it's a good point. A coach who builds his foundation on defense and rebounding. If you can count on that from every team you have, that makes up for some of the recruiting problem.
d) A lead recruiter
e) I assume that head coaching experience will be at a mid major. There needs to be a competitive record against P5 teams.
f) Is the coach married to some system or have we seen a deomstrated history of an ability to adjust?

 

[Sec_112]

Who would be our Fitz? Hardy? Baldwin? It's a tough comp because Fitz was an All-American and is on the shortlist of best college linebackers in the last 50 years. We just don't have anyone like that (other than Esch and he's moved on from the sport) Let's see how much B-Mac likes coaching . . .

I've always thought Baldwin is sooooooo much a better option than Hardy. He has a good strong resume at several good programs.

But that record so far at Milwaukee? I hate to say it, but I'll pass.

And I've never understood what people see in Hardy. He's a nice guys and all, but look at his record.

I think Fitz is a rarity. I know NU guys like their guys, but we need to get beyond this.

 

[GatoLouco]

I appreciate @Kat burglar 's effort to put some numbers into the process. I'm not going to go as deep, but I believe that:
1) Our record should be embarrassing at most 1 out of 10 years, not more than that. Carmody was almost there on the one
2) Our final standings in the B1G should average to no lower than 9th. That should allow us to make the tournament once every 4 years or so. While being respectable.

I did not give much thought to the above numbers, quick math in my head. Could be off.

In any case what I'd like to see is a coach that builds an identity, a way of operating that is sustainable and works in the NU environment.

Brad Stevens took a team in the Horizon League to national recognition. By looking beyond stats and looking for character in recruits. Butler has since been cranking out top coaches and preaching "the Butler Way.

Wisconsin has long been the school with the highest academic standards in the other than Evanston B1G conference. Gets old, stays old. Does not seem like from Bennett to Gard that has changed much.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

A “good coach” at Northwestern is somebody who can outcoach luck. He or she wins more close games than a coach would normally win based solely on random odds. He or she coaches with an identity or vision in mind, and recruits accordingly. In fact, he or she is so well known for that identity that players who fit the mold actively seek out that coach and want to play for him or her. His or her players are exceptional fundamentally, year after year. His or her players show growth and development every year in the program. He or she is constantly in the top three of voting for coach of the year honors, no matter where their team finishes, because they are so respected by their peers. Finally, former players tell tall tales about how tough their coach was back in the day, but also talk about how much they respect him or her, and they demonstrate that respect by sending more players NU’s way.

John Wooden is no longer with us.