When the offense works and when it doesn't

[TheC]

Watching NU on offense is a bit Jekyll and Hyde. Sometimes they look completely dysfunctional and sometimes it's a work of art.

This is likely an oversimplification, but to me, one big difference is ball movement.

When the Cats work the ball around with the pass and multiple guys get a touch, we end up with a nice shot. But too often, we see the ball get "stuck" in one player's hands. That is usually Buie, though Audige almost caught up to him in this department in just his first game. The offense falls apart when Buie or Audige are dribbling around too much. Either they force up a bad shot, or someone else finally gets the ball and they have to force a bad shot.

What baffles me is that we seem to do both a lot during a game. I can't figure out what is Collins' philosophy about offense. Does he want the NBA style one-on-one or does he want the ball to move around? There were possessions this afternoon that looked really solid. The ball went around the perimeter. It went into the paint and out. It led to nice cuts to the basket and some wide open jump shots. But then the next trip down, Buie or Audige would dribble around for 10 seconds and then hoist a shot. I would think Collins would be livid if that weren't part of the plan, yet he seems calm and he obviously doesn't scold them for it because they keep doing it. Alot!

We do not have enough skill to do this. We need to execute near flawless team basketball because most teams we'll play in the conference have better athletes with more skill. What we have is experience and, hopefully, chemistry. But that doesn't work if Buie and Audige don't run the offense.

 

[SDakaGordie]

Sometimes the on-ball picks don’t work, and the ball handler is stuck to create on his own.

If the offense worked every time, I’m sure we’d keep doing it!

 

[Hungry Jack]

Defenses like to force Boo to move sideways, and not let him accelerate to the lane. We set a lot of high screens to free him up, but it’s not unusual to see the other guard help.

With that much space, it seems we could design plays to take advantage of the attention focused on Boo.

 

[GatoLouco]

We could play inside out ball more. The ball does not go inside nearly enough. Which is funny considering how much more we scored in the paint against Maryland. To me it reinforces we can force other teams to collapse. Instead we do dribble hand offs and pick and roll too much trying to create movement and penetration.

I watched WI play in a couple of games. While I have not watched nearly enough to be confident I see a team that, like us, does not have a whole lot of options for guys who can slash the defense and find lanes to the basket. We have Audige, they have Davis. Others are like Buie, works in a great while. What WI does that we do not is put the ball inside more and create problems by forcing the defense to close.

 

[Sec_112]

But then the next trip down, Buie or Audige would dribble around for 10 seconds and then hoist a shot. I would think Collins would be livid if that weren't part of the plan, yet he seems calm and he obviously doesn't scold them for it because they keep doing it. Alot!

It's why I give Boo a bit of a pass on his pretty crappy shot selection.

To me, it's pretty clear this staff teaches an advanced analytics belief that an offense can usually find a better shot in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock than in the last 20 seconds.

a) A few years ago, I'm pretty positive a BTN color commentator (I forget who) repeated NU game after NU game that he knows Collins likes shots early in the clock.
b) Buie and Audige aren't the first NU players to walk down the court and crank one up from 28 feet. BMac did it even though he had far less ability to do it. Law did it a ton when BMac was hurt. Falzon was junk after junk. Same with Kopp. Taylor. And God knows Demps would shoot whenever the urge hit him.

And how often have you ever seen Collins jump out of his seat for bad/quick shot selection early in the shot clock? NEVER. I'm pretty sure it's one of his core beliefs.

I'm not making an argument for shots early in clock at all. I know the theory is that the defense isn't totally set, however, then you force pretty athletically disadvantaged NU teams to play defense more than they would.

I just think this is a fact of our world that nobody seems to acknowledge.

 

[wildcatpn]

It's why I give Boo a bit of a pass on his pretty crappy shot selection.

To me, it's pretty clear this staff teaches an advanced analytics belief that an offense can usually find a better shot in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock than in the last 20 seconds.

a) A few years ago, I'm pretty positive a BTN color commentator (I forget who) repeated NU game after NU game that he knows Collins likes shots early in the clock.
b) Buie and Audige aren't the first NU players to walk down the court and crank one up from 28 feet. BMac did it even though he had far less ability to do it. Law did it a ton when BMac was hurt. Falzon was junk after junk. Same with Kopp. Taylor. And God knows Demps would shoot whenever the urge hit him.

And how often have you ever seen Collins jump out of his seat for bad/quick shot selection early in the shot clock? NEVER. I'm pretty sure it's one of his core beliefs.

I'm not making an argument for shots early in clock at all. I know the theory is that the defense isn't totally set, however, then you force pretty athletically disadvantaged NU teams to play defense more than they would.

I just think this is a fact of our world that nobody seems to acknowledge.

Why do so many people think this team is at such a big deficit athletically? I would argue that we are more athletic than half the teams in the Big 10 this year. Did anyone feel there was an athletic disadvantage against Maryland today? I didn’t. I would also expect we will be fine athletically against Penn State, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Rutgers, Iowa and Nebraska. Even teams like IU who have an elite athlete in Jackson-Davis don’t look to me as a team that will overwhelm us athletically. Kopp starts for them for God sake and Simmons and Roper are way better athletes than him along with Audige and Berry. Obviously Purdue and a couple other top teams have great athletes but this NU team with Nance, Audige, Buie, Berry, Simmons, Roper and even Beran can stack up to many teams pretty well athletically.

 

[GatoLouco]

Why do so many people think this team is at such a big deficit athletically? I would argue that we are more athletic than half the teams in the Big 10 this year. Did anyone feel there was an athletic disadvantage against Maryland today? I didn’t. I would also expect we will be fine athletically against Penn State, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Rutgers, Iowa and Nebraska. Even teams like IU who have an elite athlete in Jackson-Davis don’t look to me as a team that will overwhelm us athletically. Kopp starts for them for God sake and Simmons and Roper are way better athletes than him along with Audige and Berry. Obviously Purdue and a couple other top teams have great athletes but this NU team with Nance, Audige, Buie, Berry, Simmons, Roper and even Beran can stack up to many teams pretty well athletically.

You are right. In the sense that we do not lose against anyone in height or weight. We do not get pushed around.

But, overall, we lose in speed against most of the conference. Audige is the only one with the capability of beating a defender off the dribble. Buie gets pushed off his lane like crazy. Berry does not even try. That’s where we have a deficit. It was pretty apparent when playing Providence or Wake Forest.

 

[SDakaGordie]

Kudos to Collins for finally getting us to this level! (I still think we are average in Big).

 

[Sec_112]

Why do so many people think this team is at such a big deficit athletically?

Key word ... "teams" ... plural.

I was talking about Collins philosophy and recruiting track record over a number of years.

 

[PURPLECAT88]

We could play inside out ball more. The ball does not go inside nearly enough. Which is funny considering how much more we scored in the paint against Maryland. To me it reinforces we can force other teams to collapse. Instead we do dribble hand offs and pick and roll too much trying to create movement and penetration.

Wow. I could not agree more. When Young is in the game, he should get a touch on the block on virtually every half court set. Nance either on the block or in the high post. Both are solid, willing passers who also have to be defended as scorers.

Sec.112 is right though. Collins believes, and there's apparently analytical evidence to back it up, that an early open shot is better than the danger of having to force something as the shot clock winds down. I think as the season wears on, Buie and Audige particularly will get better at judging when that early shot makes sense and when to get into a set and run the offense through the center.

 

[NUCat320]

I noticed in the Wake Forest game that, on crucial possessions, we frequently got double high screens for Boo specifically to get the ball to Nance at the top of the key. Staff definitely (and rightfully) trusts Nance to initiate and make good decisions with the ball.

 

[GatoLouco]

Wow. I could not agree more. When Young is in the game, he should get a touch on the block on virtually every half court set. Nance either on the block or in the high post. Both are solid, willing passers who also have to be defended as scorers.

Sec.112 is right though. Collins believes, and there's apparently analytical evidence to back it up, that an early open shot is better than the danger of having to force something as the shot clock winds down. I think as the season wears on, Buie and Audige particularly will get better at judging when that early shot makes sense and when to get into a set and run the offense through the center.

The thing about the ball getting inside is not that it's expected the players getting it score a ton of points. Most times it is just used to create an advantage, kick it out, defender is off balance and there's a penetration, a 3 point shot... I don't know if this is true or just my impression, but I feel I have lately seen more guards posting up in college ball. Does not even have to be your low post players necessarily. Always felt Audige could do some damage being fed in the post.

 

[Sec_112]

When Young is in the game, he should get a touch on the block on virtually every half court set. Nance either on the block or in the high post. Both are solid, willing passers who also have to be defended as scorers.

I couldn't agree more about Young. Not simply because he makes good decisions. He might also be the best passer on the team.

On the other hand, I wonder if Nance is the opposite. Yes, he played well near the end of the game yesterday. However, I'm not a big fan at all of his decisionmaking and ball handing near the top of the key. I'm not set on this idea, but too often when he's forced to pass out there, he panics a bit. He makes a bad play or hands off the ball to Buie in a bad position that breaks the momentum of the set.

 

[GatoLouco]

I couldn't agree more about Young. Not simply because he makes good decisions. He might also be the best passer on the team.

On the other hand, I wonder if Nance is the opposite. Yes, he played well near the end of the game yesterday. However, I'm not a big fan at all of his decisionmaking and ball handing near the top of the key. I'm not set on this idea, but too often when he's forced to pass out there, he panics a bit. He makes a bad play or hands off the ball to Buie in a bad position that breaks the momentum of the set.

Top of the key is a tricky place. Worst place to put the ball on the floor. Shortest distance to get a hand on your dribble or grip and lose it.

 

[PURPLECAT88]

I couldn't agree more about Young. Not simply because he makes good decisions. He might also be the best passer on the team.

On the other hand, I wonder if Nance is the opposite. Yes, he played well near the end of the game yesterday. However, I'm not a big fan at all of his decisionmaking and ball handing near the top of the key. I'm not set on this idea, but too often when he's forced to pass out there, he panics a bit. He makes a bad play or hands off the ball to Buie in a bad position that breaks the momentum of the set.

I've seen that too and will have to watch it closer, but the sense I get is that when Nance gets the ball, particularly late in the shot clock, the rest of the team kind of watches. That's when you see him get into trouble. When his teammates make cuts to the rim (Buie) or work to find open spaces at the 3-point line (Berry), Nance does tend to find them.

It's my nature as a fan to, quoting Tom Petty, remember the good times just a little more in focus. You might be right that he panics more often than he should.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

I couldn't agree more about Young. Not simply because he makes good decisions. He might also be the best passer on the team.

On the other hand, I wonder if Nance is the opposite. Yes, he played well near the end of the game yesterday. However, I'm not a big fan at all of his decisionmaking and ball handing near the top of the key. I'm not set on this idea, but too often when he's forced to pass out there, he panics a bit. He makes a bad play or hands off the ball to Buie in a bad position that breaks the momentum of the set.

Young is a better passer than Nance.
Nance is a better scorer than Young.
Nance, in my opinion, is the increasingly rare forward who excels in scoring from 7-15 feet.
He can dunk too, obviously, but he is damned good in midrange stuff that everybody else tries to avoid.

 

[SimpsonElmwood]

I couldn't agree more about Young. Not simply because he makes good decisions. He might also be the best passer on the team.

On the other hand, I wonder if Nance is the opposite. Yes, he played well near the end of the game yesterday. However, I'm not a big fan at all of his decisionmaking and ball handing near the top of the key. I'm not set on this idea, but too often when he's forced to pass out there, he panics a bit. He makes a bad play or hands off the ball to Buie in a bad position that breaks the momentum of the set.

Young, Nance and Williams are very good passers.

There have been a lot of improvements this year. The top 3 are: help defense (I know some feel it leaves shooters open), rebounding - especially secondary rebounding from the guards including Greer and Buie, and passing crispness - getting the ball to guys who can immediately shoot or drive. The latter is a combination of better passes and better movement off the ball. Cuts are more purposeful this year.

 

[pawildcat_rivals209725]

The thing about the ball getting inside is not that it's expected the players getting it score a ton of points. Most times it is just used to create an advantage, kick it out, defender is off balance and there's a penetration, a 3 point shot... I don't know if this is true or just my impression, but I feel I have lately seen more guards posting up in college ball. Does not even have to be your low post players necessarily. Always felt Audige could do some damage being fed in the post.

If you have the physical advantage over the person guarding you, posting up is a good move no matter what position you play. I see it a lot in Division II, where guards can range anywhere from about 5-9 to 6-5 in size. The team I follow has a couple of 6-5 "tweener" guys who are both good leapers. If they get the average guard into the paint, it's an almost automatic bucket.

 

[GatoLouco]

If you have the physical advantage over the person guarding you, posting up is a good move no matter what position you play. I see it a lot in Division II, where guards can range anywhere from about 5-9 to 6-5 in size. The team I follow has a couple of 6-5 "tweener" guys who are both good leapers. If they get the average guard into the paint, it's an almost automatic bucket.

Very true. And even if the physical advantage is not there, but you are crafty (Young, good example), you can still get an advantage. Because it's not an area of the court you need your feet set and a good form stroke to put the ball in the basket. A semi hook, an off balance shot, a fade away, can all be high percentage shots 3 feet from the basket. So the defense has to do something.

 

[TheC]

I couldn't agree more about Young. Not simply because he makes good decisions. He might also be the best passer on the team.

On the other hand, I wonder if Nance is the opposite. Yes, he played well near the end of the game yesterday. However, I'm not a big fan at all of his decisionmaking and ball handing near the top of the key. I'm not set on this idea, but too often when he's forced to pass out there, he panics a bit. He makes a bad play or hands off the ball to Buie in a bad position that breaks the momentum of the set.

Am I the only one who was cringing when Nance had the ball at that the top of the key and took that hard dribble, pull-up jumper?? It went in and was a HUGE shot in the game, but if it hadn't..... it really wasn't a great shot choice.

 

[ThatadultfromHolland]

Very true. And even if the physical advantage is not there, but you are crafty (Young, good example), you can still get an advantage. Because it's not an area of the court you need your feet set and a good form stroke to put the ball in the basket. A semi hook, an off balance shot, a fade away, can all be high percentage shots 3 feet from the basket. So the defense has to do something.

Young works so hard and efficiently to get the same shot off in the post. That’s his only shot he scores consistently down there. I can’t remember which shoulder without watching. It’s so funny watching people completely hedge towards it and then he does a fake and they still bite. Then score. Ability to pass out of the post probably helps.

 

[GatoLouco]

Young works so hard and efficiently to get the same shot off in the post. That’s his only shot he scores consistently down there. I can’t remember which shoulder without watching. It’s so funny watching people completely hedge towards it and then he does a fake and they still bite. Then score. Ability to pass out of the post probably helps.

100%. Young has an instinct that most players do not have. He understands how to get to the angle he needs to shoot with his right hand. He does not even have a left hand shot if it's not a layup. He's 6'10 and has fairly long harms, but also can't jump. Going against other 6'10 or more guys with longer harms that can jump. And yet, he makes it work.

 

[PurpleFaze]

Biggest thing with current team is we have options so guys like Boo and Audige need to be smart enough to know when it isn’t their night to not shoot us out of games. We shouldn’t be seeing any 4/19 games.

Audige makes a big difference because he can drive and create his shot off the dribble.

The shots I hate to see are the ones where we don’t pass the ball at all and someone like boo puts up a 3 from 5 feet behind the arc about 10 secs into the shot clock.

We need more aggressive play from Beran. Example being the dunk he had yesterday in first half when he went to the hoop hard. He’s kind of in the same phase Nance was before middle of last season where he blows too many easy buckets because he is timid around the rim.

 

[freewillie07]

Am I the only one who was cringing when Nance had the ball at that the top of the key and took that hard dribble, pull-up jumper?? It went in and was a HUGE shot in the game, but if it hadn't..... it really wasn't a great shot choice.

Is it really any worse than the same shot from Audige, or an off-balance floater from Boo? Obviously, it went in, so I was fine with it, but I also want Nance to be assertive late in games.