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Greg McElroy gives Brian Kelly a 50% chance to win a national championship at LSU

IMG_6598by:Nick Kosko05/15/24


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Greg McElroy is high, so to speak, on Brian Kelly’s chances to win a national championship at LSU.

He put the percentage at 50% for the remainder of his tenure. On the surface, 50% is he will or he won’t, simply that. Yes or no.

But, the percentage for any coach to win a national title might be pretty low, unless you’re Nick Saban or Kirby Smart these days.

“I think Les Miles is a solid coach, I don’t think he’s elite. I think Ed Orgeron is a solid coach, I don’t think he’s elite. I think Brian Kelly is elite,” McElroy said on Always College Football. “That’s why I think the percentage chance that he will win a national championship at LSU is 50%. Now remember, people are going to hear that they’re going to say ‘50%, I mean, that seems a little low, or perhaps seems a little high. Winning a national championship is outrageously difficult. Outrageously difficult.” 

LSU won it all five years ago, led by Orgeron. Let’s not forget the 2007 team led by Miles as well. By that logic, it seems like LSU could win it all with Kelly, who’s a better coach than those two.

“And frankly, I think 2019 LSU was about as talented a team as you could ever construct,” McElroy said. “Ed Orgeron deserves immense credit for constructing that team and that roster the way he did and adjusting his philosophy and all these other things. But I can tell you this, I think in 2007 LSU won a national championship in spite of their head coach. 

“No disrespect Les Miles, just my personal opinion. So I think this place and the players that you have access to, is about as good as it gets. So I think Brian Kelly before he shuts it down at LSU, there’s a 50% chance that he wins a title.”

With veterans back, LSU could be very good or the team could stumble and fall to the middle of the pack of the SEC.

“I mean, the expectation obviously, is to be, you know, competing for national championships,” Bengal Tiger’s Billy Embody said on Andy Staples On3. “I mean, the only higher expectations around LSU are for the baseball team. And so I mean, right or wrong, that’s just the reality of it. But LSU has a team that if they can be coached up better, and we talked about that with Bo Davis, coaching that group at Texas on the defensive line, Blake Baker is obviously taking over as defensive coordinator, and they’ve got a really good staff on that side of the ball. 

“Just schematically and putting it together, better and more organized, can help them improve into the, let’s say the 70s of college football defenses. That would be a win and then it’s about the offense holding up its end of the bargain that they have. Even when Jayden Daniels was still kind of learning as LSU’s first year starter, they were showing some flashes, some promise and had some good games as well. But you could see this team honestly going anywhere from eight wins to running the table.”