North Carolina relying on Drake Maye’s progression to overcome deficiencies

There will be a number of college football programs walking a fine line between success and turmoil in the upcoming 2023 season. On3’s resident college football expert J.D. PicKell recently broke down his list of teams walking a tightrope next year. And the North Carolina Tar Heels have found their way onto his list.

“The Tar Heels of North Carolina are a tightrope team,” said PicKell. “They won six games last year by one score, competed for an ACC title, (but) didn’t end up working out how you would like if you’re in North Carolina. But your bet for North Carolina is that Drake Maye is going to propel you to greatness. I think they’re like 9.0; maybe 8.5 wins is the number for them right now for their over-under-win total.

“If you’re taking the over, you believe Drake Maye is that guy. He’s going to live up to the billing that we at On3 believe he’s going to be, being a top-two player in the country, according to our good friend Stat Cat. The belief is that Drake Maye is going to be that dude.”

In starting quarterback Drake Maye, North Carolina has what many believed to be the top quarterback in the ACC and one of the top two quarterbacks in all of college football. But it’s not the offensive side of the ball that has PicKell concerned. Simply put, for him, as good as the Tar Heels offense was in 2022, the defense was equally as bad.

“Now the reason why they’re a tightrope team is — if he is that dude, great — the reason why I am a little bit slower to jump on that hype train is because the defense is not good. The defense allowed over 200 rushing a game, I believe. The defense was the Achilles heel. You also lose Josh Downs, a big-time receiver, to the NFL. You lose your offensive coordinator in Phil Longo, who was the architect behind that offense. If Drake Maye doesn’t perform how we believe he could perform, the pressure responsibility goes back to that defense, and you don’t feel good about that for your defense. You don’t feel good about that if you’re a North Carolina fan.”

Fear not, North Carolina football fans. If the Tar Heels defense spins their wheels similarly in 2023 to the way they did last season, there is still hope for the program. All that needs to be done is for Maye to go above and beyond the performance that he put on last year, putting the team on his shoulders and leading them to victory.

“Now, if Drake Maye just takes over and takes the game to a new level, the whole conversation doesn’t matter. North Carolina is going really good. But I’m just saying, even if Drake Maye just performs the same way he did last year, if they find themselves in six one-score games; let’s say they lose three (or) four of those—different conversation around North Carolina and where they fall in the ACC.