Cooper Flagg injury: DraftKings releases hypothetical odds if Duke star was healthy for UNC game

Duke’s Cooper Flagg is very likely to be out for the remainder of the ACC Tournament with his sprained left ankle. That absence has already had a large impact on the projection of the Blue Devils’ semifinal today against North Carolina.

Per Julian Edlow at DraftKings, Duke would have hypothetically opened as a 13.5-point favorite over the Tar Heels if Flagg were to be in the lineup. With him not, though, the Blue Devils opened as just a 7.5-point favorite with that spread already played down to 6.5 points, which adds up to a line that’s by seven points total based almost solely on Flagg’s absence.

“Cooper Flagg is worth 7 points to the spread according to the trading team at @DKSportsbook,” Edlow tweeted today. “Duke would be favored by 13.5 over UNC if Flagg were playing, instead it opened 7.5 and currently sits 6.5.”

This also affected the championship odds for the NCAA Tournament. According to odds at BetMGM, Duke’s chances of winning the national title this season went down from (+320) to (+375) following the injury for Flagg.

Flagg is one of the two best players, let alone freshmen, in all of college basketball with averages of 18.9 points (48.8% FG, 36.8% 3PT), 7.5 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 1.5 steals, and 1.3 blocks. That stat-line includes his numbers in two wins over UNC with Flagg posting 18.0 points (41.5% FG, 42.5% 3PT), 8.5 rebounds, 6.5 assists, 3.0 blocks, and 1.5 steals.

Duke will be without its leader in every statistical category in Flagg for a postseason game against its in-state rival. That naturally would have some effect on the game, with the spread having since been cut in half for tonight’s game.

UNC vs. Duke odds: Current line, win probability, final score prediction, how to watch

For the second time in a week, the top rivalry in all of college basketball will take center stage at the ACC Tournament. That’s with the field’s semifinals tonight delivering a third meeting between the Duke Blue Devils and the North Carolina Tar Heels.

There’s a ton of storylines heading into this one. UNC played Duke close, at least in the first half, last weekend, before the Blue Devils pulled away to win by 13 in Chapel Hill. Now, the Tar Heels can get some revenge and strengthen their resumé for the NCAA Tournament if they can pull that upset this time in Charlotte, especially now with the expected absence of Cooper Flagg.

Odds for UNC vs. Duke

Coming into the game, Duke is a 7.5-point favorite over North Carolina per FanDuel. The Blue Devils are also currently listed at (-345) for the money-line right now while the Tar Heels are sitting at (+270).

The point total for the game is currently set at 154.5 points. It’s certainly feasible that these two teams reach that number when they face off and all the chips are pushed to the center of the table.

Final score predictions for UNC vs. Duke

BPI Predicted winner: Duke
BPI Predicted point differential: 11.2
BPI Win probability (for Duke): 85.7%
BPI Matchup Quality: 88.4

ESPN’s BPI is a model designed to provide a statistical comparison between two teams and predict future success. It agrees with Vegas about what to expect from this game. Leading into the game, BPI is projecting a point differential of 11.2 points in Duke’s favor. It also gives the Blue Devils an 85.7% chance to win the game over the Tar Heels.

BPI also gives this game a matchup quality score of 88.4. It’s among the best quality score of Friday’s college basketball slate.

KenPom Predicted final score: Duke 84, North Carolina 70
KenPom Win probability (for Duke): 89%

KenPom is another predictive system for college basketball. It’s designed to show how strong a team is at a given time, without taking factors like injuries into account. For this game between Duke and North Carolina, KenPom agrees with BPI and Vegas, projecting the Blue Devils to be victorious.

How to watch UNC vs. Duke

Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
Channel: ESPN
Location: Spectrum Center | Charlotte, NC