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Dale Earnhardt Jr. breaks down NASCAR playoff picture, singles out drivers to watch

Brian Jones Profile Picby: Brian Jones07/23/25brianjones_93
Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Dale Earnhardt Jr. is looking forward to how the NASCAR playoff picture plays out as the regular season winds down. On Dale Jr. Download, Earnhardt took a look at how the playoffs are shaping out with five regular-season races remaining.

“That [playoff] cut line every year has moved,” Dale Earnhardt Jr. said. “Every single year, someone below the line has won their way in, and that’s going to move the cut line above Bubba Wallace, which is right now Chris Buescher.

“So Chris Buescher is at +44, and he’s 19 points behind Alex Bowman, who is at +63. If there is a new winner in the next couple of weeks from below the cut line, that sets Chris Buescher on the cut line, and then Alex Bowman has to really truly understand what his role is every single week.”

Earnhardt then asked if the cut line moves, how does Bowman separate himself from Buescher? The NASCAR Hall of Famer then said it’s possible there could be two new winners in the next five races.

“Maybe last year, we had three guys that were above the cut line at this point that did not make the playoffs,” Earnhardt said. “You’re never safe.”

Looking at the NASCAR playoff standings

Because Earnhardt believes the cut line will move, he said, “I would be paying attention less to what Bubba Wallace and [Ryan] Preece are doing.” He also mentioned that Tyler Reddick is likely safe since 156 points above the cut line.

Wallace is 16 points above the NASCAR playoff cut line and has the final spot. The first four out are Preece (-16), Kyle Busch (-39), Ty Gibbs (-52) and Michael McDowell (-77). There are 12 drivers who have clinched a spot in the playoffs, and those 12 are Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, Shane van Gisbergen, William Byron, Ryan Blaney, Austin Cindric, Joey Logano, Chase Elliott, Chase Briscoe, Ross Chastain and Josh Berry.

The five races that remain in the regular season are Indianapolis, Iowa, Watkins Glen, Richmond and Daytona. Of the drivers who are on the outside looking in, Gibbs will be the one to watch since he is taking on Ty Dillon in the final round of the NASCAR In-Season Challenge, which takes place at Indianapolis on Sunday.