Dale Earnhardt Jr. delivers cold hard truth to Denny Hamlin

The weekend at Michigan ended up with a Denny Hamlin win. But Dale Earnhardt Jr. has a bit of a reality check for Hamlin. NASCAR drivers typically have an “expiration date” of sorts. A time when their performance takes a stark downturn. Could that be around the corner for the Joe Gibbs Racing driver?

Drivers have traditionally won throughout their 40s. A few have been able to keep up their winning ways into their early 50s. However, the one thing that seems to be even more difficult for drivers to overcome is winning after 700 starts.

Denny Hamlin won in his 701st start at Michigan. But how many more does he have left in his career? 57 career wins, and seemingly still at the top of his game, Hamlin might not have many more left.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. talked about the potential for decline on the Dale Jr. Download this week. Is there a reason to worry if you’re Hamlin?

“So, I saw this, and we talked about this in the pre-race, post-race, during the race, I don’t know. Another thing I saw on social media, I’m like, ‘Damn that’s a cool stat.’ After 700 starts, after 700 starts, Jeff Gordon won 6 races,” Earnhardt explained. “After 700 starts, Harvick won 7. Take Richard Petty off the list because he won 22 after 700 starts, but he was 38 or 39 after he made his 700th start. Hell… Take him off the list.”

The NASCAR Hall of Famer continued to explain his thoughts on the matter. He thought Denny Hamlin had a handful of wins left in his career before Michigan. But what now?

“Denny just won. So, he’s got one, after 700. How many more does he win?” Earnhardt said. “Before that race at Michigan, I thought his over/under was six. The line was six wins. Like, could you imagine going into Michigan thinking Denny Hamlin’s going to win only six races the rest of his life at the Cup level? That’s crazy. But that’s what the odds would say. He’s maybe moved that line to eight or nine wins. Maybe 10 wins? Since he won this weekend.”

With Denny being 44 years old, his timeline is unclear. He says that he wants to keep raicng until he is no longer competitive and winning races. Well, Mark Martin was winning races until he was 50. Does Hamlin have six more seasons left? Or is it more limited than that?

“The guy may be looking at two years, but if he still wins three races, is he going to really retire? If he’s still winning?” Earnhardt questioned. “You don’t think he’d be lured to go drive for his own team for a while? He’s going to be like, ‘Oh hell. I’ll drive for myself. I’m going to run at least one year for myself.’ I think he has a plan in his mind when he thinks he’s going to retire, but I think that he’s going to find out when he gets to that doorstep, it’s going to be harder to do than he thinks. But if Jeff Gordon won six and Harvick won seven, and they were on the higher end of the range, right, they were the ones who won more than anyone else, outside of Richard Petty.

“How many, Denny exceeded, the race to 60, right? Because he was in a great car, he’s still in a great car, he’s still got an opportunity to overachieve in these final years. He feels like he’s at the top of his game, better than ever. But could you imagine if he only wins five or six more races in his career? That sounds wild. Improbable, right? But that’s what the math would tell you. That’s what the history would tell you.”

Dale Earnhardt Jr. is being honest. The runway is getting shorter and shorter for Denny Hamlin. As long as he keeps winning, he’s going to be in the sport. But is that one year, two years, three, or six years? We likely won’t know until it happens.