Denny Hamlin reacts to NASCAR Xfinity Series Championship 4, predicts winner at Phoenix

And then there were four. This Saturday at Phoenix Raceway, four drivers will race for the 2025 NASCAR Xfinity Series championship: Connor Zilisch, Justin Allgaier, Jesse Love, and Carson Kvapil.

How would Denny Hamlin rank them based on speed? Zilisch and Allgaier are in their own tier, followed by Love and then Kvapil, Hamlin said on Monday’s Actions Detrimental podcast.

“Connor Zilisch, let’s just rank him at one. And then you got Justin Allgaier, that’s two. Based on speed all year, it’s 88, 7, 2, 1,” Hamlin said. “I don’t know what Carson Kvapil’s stats have been this year. It was interesting, he started the year off and I’m thinking he’s gonna win a lot of races. [He] just plateaued, like really plateaued.

“I just thought that 1 team was very underwhelming for the bulk of the season. Seven top 5s in the Xfinity Series is not much, not much at all. I just feel like Jesse’s been faster than Carson. Jesse was pretty good at Phoenix last year.”

Xfinity Series championship race: Denny Hamlin makes his pick

Zilisch is thought to be the favorite and there’s good evidence to support that. This season, the 19-year-old has a series-leading 10 wins, 19 top 5s and 22 top 10s. He’s led 986 laps, more than any driver in Xfinity.

The driver who has led just 13 fewer laps than Zilisch? That would be Allgaier, the reigning Xfinity champion and Zilisch’s JR Motorsports teammate. Allgaier didn’t win last year’s championship race at Phoenix, but his second-place finish was enough to secure him his first championship.

Allgaier is a seasoned veteran of the series and knows his way around Phoenix. He’s got the same equipment as Zilisch and for all of those reasons, Hamlin is picking Allgaier to repeat.

“You gotta think like the 7 car last year in the championship race, Justin Allgaier was very, very dominant. You gotta think he’s gonna be pretty tough again, but you also got the 88 who is part of that team and has gotten better on all types of tracks throughout the season. I still think it’s gonna be a close one,” Hamlin said. “I think Justin’s experience at Phoenix will counter whatever success the 88 is having throughout the season, so I think that’s gonna be a 1A and 1B type of race. And then Jesse will be right there near them. Carson is gonna need to find some speed.

“… I’ll give the nod to Justin just based off of his car is gonna be just as prepared as the 88, he’s not gonna get beat on equipment. I believe this is where experience will benefit him well. That might be one of his best racetracks. They were lightning fast [last year]. So, Justin’s my pick.”