ESPN Expert takes several unders on Steelers, Aaron Rodgers following signing

Aaron Rodgers finally made his expected signing of this offseason last week by joining in time for minicamp with the Steelers. Still, as seems to be the consensus on this move, ESPN’s Joe Fortenbaugh is pessimistic about what this means this season for Pittsburgh.

Fortenbaugh took a look at the Steelers through the lens of some of the odds at ESPN Bet, during ‘Get Up’ on Friday. That started by him taking the unders on a pair of passing props, under 22.5 touchdowns and under 3,200.5 yards, for Rodgers with his new team.

“Under. Doesn’t seem like a big number but, since the NFL moved to a 17-game schedule four years ago, you get an average of about 13 quarterbacks per year who hit this mark. So, again, it’s not something that’s hit all that frequently,” Fortenbaugh said of the passing touchdown total. “Age is a concern. Health is a concern. The offensive line is a concern. The depth at the wide receiver unit is a concern. Second half of that schedule is brutal as well. I’d play under 22.5.”

“This would also be an under, but not as convincing,” Fortenbaugh then said of the total for passing yardage. “Again, the last four years, since we moved to a 17-game schedule, about 17 quarterbacks per year hit this mark. Little less confident in this one. But, the one thing to keep in mind? When you’re going to bet overs on passing, you need teammates, playmakers. You need a favorable schedule, especially indoor games. One indoor game this season for Pittsburgh. Late in the year, it’s going to be a lot of outdoor games, lot of weather, lot of wind. That wreaks havoc on the passing game.”

These are gambles by Fortenbaugh on the decline of Rodgers by the age of 42 at the end of this season. That’s with him having exceeded both of those totals in every full season of his career, including the past two he has played for the New York Jets and Green Bay Packers, where the play began to fall a bit for the former MVP. Again, though, there’s only so much optimism right now about the addition of Rodgers, especially on his third team in four years, that’ll have a so-so offense to work with against difficult competition now in the AFC North.

However, from there, Fortenbaugh took the biggest under of the trio, taking under 8.5 wins for Pittsburgh. That would mean the end of the franchise’s streak of 21 seasons at .500 or better, including all of their 18 under Mike Tomlin. That said, even with Rodgers, Fortenbaugh sees some signs that the Steelers could have their first losing record since 2003.

“You get the trend here. We’re going to go under 8.5,” stated Fortenbaugh. “A couple things to keep in mind. As of right now, the Steelers are a ‘dog in 11 of 17 games; 11 of 17, they’re listed as an underdog. Last year, Aaron Rodgers, with the Jets when he was an underdog? 0-6. Didn’t spring a single upset. Now, on top of that, couple of big regression indicators. Number one, last five years, Pittsburgh has won 71% of their one-score games. That’s not going to continue. Regression indicator number two, last year, Pittsburgh was number two in the NFL in turnover differential. Good luck maintaining that. 10th hardest schedule in the NFL as well.”

“It’s going to be close, but I’d go under 8.5,” Fortenbaugh said.

If any franchise were to prove this all wrong, based on the past two decades, it’s Pittsburgh. Even so, based on his opinion and statistics, the Steelers, and now Rodgers with them, could be in for one of their two-worst seasons of the century.