Colorado vs. Florida odds: Win probability, final score prediction in NCAA Tournament

Florida and Colorado face off on Friday in the first round of March Madness, representing the No. 7 and No 10 seeds of the South Region of this year’s NCAA Tournament.

The Gators impressed in the SEC Tournament, making it all the way to the final as the No. 6 seed before falling to Auburn. With Colorado also making it to the Pac-12 Tournament final and defeating Boise State in their First Four matchup to punch their ticket to round one.

Both squads have real potential to make some noise in the tournament given their recent hot streaks, but only one will advance. Here’s everything you’ll need to know from how to watch to who you should bet ahead of the Gators and Buffaloes showdown.

Odds for Colorado vs. Florida

The Gators are narrow 1.5-point favorites over Colorado on Friday according to FanDuel Sportsbook. With Florida having -132 odds on the moneyline and the Buffaloes at +110 odds if they can win the first-round matchup outright in what’s expected to be a close contest.

The point total for the game also sits at an over-under of 159.5 with Friday’s game also potentially being a high scoring affair. As both team’s both ranked third in points per game for their respective conferences this season.

Final score predictions for Colorado vs. Florida

BPI Predicted winner: Florida
BPI Predicted point differential: 3.5
BPI Win probability (for Florida): 62.6 percent
BPI Matchup Quality: 88.4

ESPN’s BPI (Basketball Power Index) also gives Florida a slight edge like FanDuel ahead of Friday’s SEC/Pac-12 showdown. Predicting a 3.5-point differential in favor of the Gators while also giving the Florida a 65.6% chance of eliminating the Buffs from the NCAA Tournament.

The BPI is a model designed to provide a statistical comparison between two teams and predict future success, also giving the game a strong matchup quality score of 88.4. Making this game fourth strongest matchup on Friday’s loaded slate of men’s college basketball action.

KenPom Predicted final score: Colorado 80, Florida 79
KenPom Win probability (for Colorado): 52 percent

KenPom is another predictive system for college basketball, designed to show how strong a team is at a given time, without taking factors like injuries into account.

Unlike FanDuel and ESPN’s BPI, KenPom believes that Colorado will advance to the second round of March Madness with a narrow victory in a high scoring game. Forecasting just a one-point win for the Buffaloes over Florida while also giving them a near coin-flip chance of getting the win at 52% odds.

How to watch Colorado vs. Florida

Time: 4:30 p.m. ET
Channel: TBS, Prime Video (streaming)
Location: Indianapolis (IN)

It’s clear that Florida and Colorado’s matchup could go either way and has the potential to be one of the best first-round matchups of this year’s NCAA Tournament. Featuring two high scoring offense and two of the most evenly matched teams in the opening draw.

You can watch the tournament live on Prime Video, add on your favorite channels and watch at home or on your phone and laptop at work!

KJ Simpson has led the scoring charge for Colorado this season, averaging 19.6 points per game this year for the Buffaloes and 21 points in his last two postseason matchups. Meanwhile for the Gators, Walter Clayton Jr. is their offensive x-factor. Averaging 17.1 points per game in his first season with Florida after transferring in from Iona.