Houston vs. Kansas odds: Win probability, final score prediction for Cougars, Jayhawks

One of three AP top 10 matchups on Saturday, No. 4 Houston travels to No. 8 Kansas for the Cougars first taste of Big-12 action against the winningest program in college basketball history.

The Cougars enter Saturday in sole possession of first place in the Big 12 Conference rankings, while Kansas sits in fourth place one game back. Two games separate No. 1 from No. 8 in the conference, so a Jayhawks win would shake the standings up completely.

Despite Kansas playing at home, they are not favored to defeat the fourth-ranked Houston Cougars. Here’s how the odds broke down across the board.

Odds for Houston vs. Kansas

Coming into the game, Houston is a 1.5-point favorite over Kansas, per FanDuel Sportsbook. The Cougars are currently listed at -125 on the moneyline as of Saturday morning, while the Jayhawks are sitting at +105. 

The point total for the game is set at 134.5 points, which suggests a defensive, Big-12 slugfest inside Allen Fieldhouse.

Final score predictions for Houston vs. Kansas

BPI Predicted winner: Houston
BPI Predicted point differential: 6.8
BPI Win probability (for Houston): 75.3 percent
BPI Matchup Quality: 87.2

ESPN’s BPI is a model designed to provide a statistical comparison between two teams and predict future success. It agrees with Vegas about what to expect from this game. Heading into the game, BPI is projecting a point differential of 7.8 points in LSU’s favor. It also gives the Tigers a 75.5 percent chance to win the game over the Razorbacks at home.

BPI also gives this game a matchup quality score of 66.9, which ranks inside of the top 10 in quality scores predicted for the day.

KenPom Predicted final score: Houston 69, Kansas 64
KenPom Win probability (for Houston): 67 percent

KenPom is another predictive system for college basketball. It’s designed to show how strong a team is at a given time, without taking factors like injuries into account. For Saturday’s game between Houston and Kansas, KenPom agrees with BPI and Vegas’ consensus, projecting the Jayhawks to lose by roughly 2-6 points points.

How to watch Houston vs. Kansas

Time: 4 p.m. ET
Channel: ESPN, FuboTV (streaming)
Location: Allen Fieldhouse — Lawrence, Kansas

The opening tip between the Cougars and Jayhawks is scheduled for 4 p.m. ET and will air live on ESPN. It’s also going to be available to fans on streaming through FuboTV, which has an option for a free trial.