Mel Kiper predicts LaNorris Sellers or Drew Allar as the top pick in 2026 NFL Draft without Arch Manning

Arch Manning is eligible to declare for the 2026 NFL Draft, but many doubt the Texas quarterback will move on from college after one season as a starter. That opens room for a new favorite to be selected No. 1 overall in April.

NFL Draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr. is someone who isn’t sold on Manning making the move to the pros just yet. Instead, he had a quick answer for the new top prospect(s): LaNorris Sellers or Drew Allar. However, Kiper believes one already has the edge over the other during the early season.

“It’s a host of quarterbacks, a lengthy list of quarterbacks that could be in that mix,” Kiper said on First Draft. “… But I think when you look at Arch, I don’t know about (him) leaving. I don’t know how you can lean what you’ve seen so far. It indicates it’s almost an automatic so for me, I would go to Sellers.”

Kiper noted that Sellers will be 20 years of age when the 2026 NFL Draft rolls around in April. He compared that to someone like LSU‘s Garrett Nussmeier, who is a highly-touted quarterback in next year’s cycle. He’ll be 24 years old by the time his name’s called.

Sellers has his Gamecocks 2-0 on the young season. He’ll open SEC play against Vanderbilt at home during Week 3.

“Sellers looks the part. I think he’s going to play some outstanding football this year for South Carolina,” Kiper said. “And Drew Allar goes back to Penn State for this year. Wisely, didn’t come out after last year. He’s got some better targets. We’ll see how that emerges and develops.”

Through two games, Allar has looked the part. He’s completed 69.5% (41-59) of his passing attempts for three touchdowns and has helped the Nittany Lions’ offense outscore its opposition 80-11 over the first eight quarters of the new season.

Both programs could find themselves in the College Football Playoff conversation at the end of the season. After all, Allar led Penn State to a national semifinal one season ago, while Sellers helped South Carolina to its best season (9-4) in the Shane Beamer era. Many believe the Gamecocks can take that next step in 2025, while Allar returned with his sights set on a national title.

The 2026 NFL Draft set for April 23 through 25, 2026. Regardless of who’s name is called first — neither should expect to wait long before their name’s called.