Michigan Dominates Opening Month of College Basketball Futures At BetMGM

Written by Chase Kiddy — With a month of college hoops now in the books, the NCAA basketball futures market at BetMGM is starting to take shape. 

The big winner of this early period is Michigan. As college basketball approaches its light holiday schedule, the Wolverines (+375) have posted several high-profile Quad 1 blowouts, making them an obvious title favorite.

Michigan began to crank up its intensity as the Thanksgiving holiday approached. Since Nov. 24, the Wolverines have earned consecutive wins over San Diego State, Auburn, Gonzaga, Rutgers, and Villanova. They won those five games by a combined margin of 179 points. 

In other words, they’re averaging 35-point wins against likely NCAA Tournament teams.

If this season has a magical, out-of-nowhere squad that compares favorably to Todd Golden’s 2025 Florida team, the early returns suggest it’s Michigan. The team is deep, with nine different players averaging at least five points per game. It’s big and rangy, often opting for a lineup with three players who are at least six-foot-nine. Leading scorer Yaxel Lendeborg is flying up the John Wooden Award odds board.

The national championship market has made a huge adjustment on Michigan during its current run. The maize and blue opened at +2500 and were +700 as recently as last week. Today, the Wolverines are all the way down to +375, and no other team is shorter than 10-to-1. 

All this line movement is a reaction to both Michigan’s fundamentals and incoming betting action. At BetMGM, players have taken notice; Michigan now accounts for a market-high 10.6% of all championship tickets and 13.7% of handle, as of Dec. 8. The Wolverines have become BetMGM’s No. 1 liability in the 2026 national championship market. 

Purdue, Duke Meeting Expectations

Purdue (+1000) and Duke (+1100) entered the season as two of the top chalk picks in the national championship market. They remain near the top of the market because they’ve made good on expectations, at least so far.

Amusingly, they’ve sustained their success this season in completely different ways.

Duke is riding another crop of phenomenal freshmen to championship contention. Rookie Cameron Boozer has a good case to make that he’s the best player in college basketball this season, averaging a 23/10/4 stat line on 56% shooting. He’s also good for two steals and one block per game. Overall, four of Duke’s top seven scorers on the season are freshmen, and they lead the nation with four Quad 1 wins. 

Meanwhile, in West Lafayette, this year’s Purdue team looks more like a classic college basketball winner: A veteran, senior-heavy, guard-led team that still gets excellent inside-out play from All-American point guard Braden Smith and All-American forward Trey Kaufman-Renn. The focus on those two has actually freed up two-guard Fletcher Loyer to shoot a career-high 46% from behind the arc. He leads the team (by a hair) with 14 points per game.

Yes, Michigan is getting all the love right now. But Duke and Purdue will be big favorites to get to the Final Four as well, so their college basketball national championship odds may not stay this long forever. 

Savvy bettors may consider this the best buy point they’re going to get on two major preseason favorites. The pair combine for 18.5% of tickets and 19.4% of handle, so there’s still plenty of appetite for these two major challengers to Michigan’s ascendency.

Arizona, Iowa State Ready to Challenge Houston In Big 12 Country

Houston was another preseason favorite that received early recognition alongside Duke and Purdue. Based on the level of talent on the team and the recent accomplishments of the Cougars under Kelvin Sampson, it would be foolish to dismiss them completely.

But Houston has more of a fight on its hands in the rugged Big 12 than some fans may have anticipated before the season. One month in, both Arizona (+1000) and Iowa State (+1200) have jumped the Cougs (+1400) in the championship table, meaning it could be another slugfest at the top of the Big 12 standings. 

Iowa State is ranked No. 2 by KenPom. The Cyclones rank in the top 10 in both adjusted offensive efficiency and adjusted defensive efficiency – a key historical indicator for successful March Madness contenders. They’re also 3-0 against Quad 1 opponents.

So far, that success hasn’t translated to much betting action, as Iowa State accounts for only 1.9% of tickets and 1.7% of handle – market exposure comparable to Tennessee and Texas Tech.

Arizona has been a trendier futures bet, which could be at least partially tied to the success of freshman forward Koa Peat. The Arizona native is averaging a 16/5/3 stat line playing swing in the middle of Arizona’s lineup. 

LeBron James’ second son, Bryce, is also a freshman on the team. He has yet to play in a game, but some public bettors may be interested in taking a flier on the Wildcats anyway. 

John Wooden Update: Cameron Boozer already an Odds-On Favorite

Bettors have centered around Duke’s star freshman forward as a big favorite in the developing Wooden Award market. That’s not terribly surprising, considering he’s averaging a double-double and No. 2 nationally in points per game. 

Smith (+900) and Lendeborg (+1200) are second and third in the table at BetMGM.

The other lingering name here is outstanding BYU freshman AJ Dybantsa, priced as 17-to-1. 

If nothing else, Dybantsa’s highlights from this week’s Clemson game alone are probably enough to convince anyone he deserves to be mentioned here.