Mississippi State vs. Alabama odds: Win probability, final score prediction for Bulldogs, Tide

No. 24 Alabama hosts Mississippi State on Saturday in the second of two conference matchups between the Crimson Tide and Bulldogs.

Alabama enters Saturday’s SEC matchup in sole possession of first place in the current conference standings. South Carolina and Auburn are right behind them one game back, and an upset road win for the Bulldogs would be have significant ramifications on the outlook of the conference heading into February’s slate.

During the two team’s first meeting in January, Mark Sears scored 22 points as Alabama went on to defeat the Bulldogs 82-74 after an 8-0 run to end the game. Alabama looks to sweep the season series with a win at home on Saturday night.

Odds for Mississippi State vs. Alabama

Coming into the game, Alabama is an 8.5-point favorite over Mississippi State, per FanDuel Sportsbook. The Crimson Tide are currently listed at -430 on the moneyline as of Saturday morning, while the Bulldogs are sitting at +330. 

The point total for the game is set at 155.5 points. Alabama comes into the game averaging an SEC-high 89.4 points per game. Meanwhile, Mississippi State averages 74.5 — 10th best in the conference.

Final score predictions for Mississippi State vs. Alabama

BPI Predicted winner: Alabama
BPI Predicted point differential: 12.1
BPI Win probability (for Alabama): 85.6 percent
BPI Matchup Quality: 81.5

ESPN’s BPI is a model designed to provide a statistical comparison between two teams and predict future success. It agrees with Vegas about what to expect from this game. Heading into the game, BPI is projecting a point differential of 12.1 points in Alabama’s favor. It also gives the Crimson Tide an 85.6 percent chance to win the game over the Bulldogs at home.

BPI also gives this game a matchup quality score of 81.5, which ranks inside of the top 20 in quality scores predicted for the day.

KenPom Predicted final score: Alabama 83, Mississippi State 74
KenPom Win probability (for Alabama): 79 percent

KenPom is another predictive system for college basketball. It’s designed to show how strong a team is at a given time, without taking factors like injuries into account. For Saturday’s game between Alabama and Mississippi State, KenPom agrees with BPI and Vegas’ consensus, projecting the Bulldogs to lose by roughly 8-13 points.

How to watch Mississippi State vs. Alabama

Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
Channel: SEC Network, FuboTV (streaming)
Location: Coleman Coliseum – Tuscaloosa, Alabama

The opening tip between the Bulldogs and Crimson Tide is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET and will air live on the SEC Network. It’s also going to be available to fans on streaming through FuboTV, which has an option for a free trial.