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Mississippi State vs. LSU odds: Win probability, final score prediction in SEC Tournament

Barkley-Truaxby: Barkley Truax03/14/24BarkleyTruax
NCAA Basketball: Mississippi State at Louisiana State
Feb 24, 2024; Baton Rouge, Louisiana, USA; LSU Tigers guard Mike Williams III (2) controls the ball against Mississippi State Bulldogs guard Josh Hubbard (13) during the second half at Pete Maravich Assembly Center. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

Mississippi State and LSU are set to tip off Thursday’s SEC Tournament action in what should be an exciting second-round matchup in Nashville.

The two teams had previously matched up late last month, seeing the Bulldogs dispose of the Tigers by 20 points in Baton Rouge. Mississippi State has since lost its last four games of the regular season, while LSU claimed three of its last four.

The winner between the Bulldogs and Tigers will face top-seeded Tennessee in the opening quarterfinal matchup on Friday.

Odds for Mississippi State vs. LSU

Coming into the game, Mississippi State is a 4.5-point favorite over LSU, per FanDuel Sportsbook. The Spartans are currently listed at -210 for the money line as of Wednesday night, while the Tigers are sitting at +172.

The point total for the game is set at 144.5 points. The two squads scored a combined for 154 points during their Feb. 24 matchup.

Final score predictions for Mississippi State vs. LSU

BPI Predicted winner: Mississippi State
BPI Predicted point differential: 6.3
BPI Win probability (for Mississippi State): 72.0 percent
BPI Matchup Quality: 78.5

ESPN’s BPI is a model designed to provide a statistical comparison between two teams and predict future success. It agrees with Vegas about what to expect from this game. Heading into the game, BPI is projecting a point differential of 6.3 points in Mississippi State’s favor. It also gives the Bulldogs a 72 percent chance to win the game over the Gophers.

BPI also gives this game a matchup quality score of 78.5. This ranks the matchup as the No. 4 in quality scores predicted for the day.

KenPom Predicted final score: Mississippi State 76, LSU 71
KenPom Win probability (for Mississippi State): 69 percent

KenPom is another predictive system for college basketball. It’s designed to show how strong a team is at a given time, without taking factors like injuries into account. For Saturday’s game between Mississippi State and LSU, KenPom agrees with BPI and Vegas’ decision to have the Bulldogs take care of the Tigers.

How to watch Mississippi State vs. LSU

Time: 1 p.m. ET
Channel: SECN, FuboTV (streaming)
Location: Bridgestone Arena — Nashville, Tennessee

Fubo’s spring offer just kicked off – For a limited time, new subscribers can save $20 on their first month of Fubo’s Pro, Elite, and Premier plans.

The opening tip between the Bulldogs and Tigers is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET and will air live on the SEC Network. It’s also going to be available to fans on streaming through FuboTV, which has an option for a free trial.