NASCAR insider crunches numbers on clinching point totals needed for playoff drivers at Bristol

One race remains in the Round of 16. A date between the Bristol Night Race and the NASCAR Playoffs is here once again. A short week in the schedule with a Saturday night race, but who can emerge at Bristol with a Round of 12 sticker on their car?

Chase Briscoe and Denny Hamlin have advanced to the second round of the NASCAR Playoffs by winning the last two races. Everyone else is going to have to do it with points or a win at Bristol.

Bob Pockrass of FOX Sports did the math. He has the scenarios for each playoff driver to clinch next week at Bristol. Pockrass gave the minimum points needed by each driver, not including stage points or the fastest lap bonus, to advance to the next round

Here are the NASCAR Playoffs drivers capable of locking in on points, and how it breaks down:
Kyle Larson – 8 points (29th place)
Bubba Wallace – 18 points (19th place)
Ryan Blaney – 26 points (11th place)
William Byron – 29 points (8th place)
Tyler Reddick – 31 points (6th place)
Christopher Bell – 36 points (Needs stage points)
Chase Elliott – 40 points (Needs stage points)
Joey Logano – 47 points (Needs stage points)
Ross Chastain – 49 points (Needs stage points)

My math says these are the clinching point total needed at Bristol no matter what anyone else does: Larson 8 (29th and no stage points/fastest lap point), Wallace 18 (19th), Blaney 26 (11th), Byron 29 (8th), Reddick 31 (6th), Bell 36, Elliott 40, Logano 47, Chastain 49 https://t.co/c6IU4YWqQy

— Bob Pockrass (@bobpockrass) September 7, 2025

Finishing P2 is worth 35 points in NASCAR. P1 is worth 40 points, but if you are a playoff driver and win, you advance automatically no matter the points situation.

Of course, depending on the performances of other drivers, these points totals can shift. The race can make or break many of these teams. Only Bowman and Berry are must-win drivers, mathematically that is.

So, for Bell, Elliott, Logano, and Chastain, being 100% safe isn’t really a thing at Bristol. Technically, until the race plays out and drivers DNF or have issues that put them in a bad position on track, or pick up stage points, anything can happen. Josh Berry can tell you that much. His NASCAR Playoffs have been plagued.

For Larson and Wallace, they can lock into the next round of the NASCAR Playoffs before he race is over. If they are able to pick up the points they need in the stages, then it will be a relatively stress-free night of racing.

However, Bristol is anything but “stress-free.” For Austin Dillon, Shane van Gisbergen, Alex Bowman, and Josh Berry – this race is everything. This is the season. So, they have to have strong days, and if they want to advance, likely win.

Drivers are going to try to have their best performance on Saturday night. The NASCAR Playoffs demand the best each and every week. For Chase Briscoe and Denny Hamlin, the stress is completely out the window. They are locked in no matter what. In fact, if either of them win, they would simply lock another driver out. No one would get an automatic pass to the next round. They would also steal the playoff points from a lesser team.