NASCAR insider predicts Sonoma winner, top-five finishers, longshot

The NASCAR Cup Series takes on Sonoma Raceway for the Toyota/Save Mart 350 on Sunday, the 16th race of the 2024 season.

It’s a race which has been dominated of late by Martin Truex Jr., who has won three of the last five races at the road course. As for who gets it done this time around, Bob Pockrass of FOX Sports is going with a first-time winner at the newly paved 1.99-mile-long road course. Making his picks for Sunday’s race, Pockrass went with Chase Elliott to take the checkered flag.

Elliott, who will start fourth, has found success in his previous seven starts at Sonoma. He’s tallied five top 5s, including a fifth-place finish last year. Elliott finished as the runner-up to Kyle Larson in 2021. Elliott spoke of the new changes to the layout at Sonoma, specifically the addition of the inside wall in Turn 11, instead of the tire barrier.

“It’s fine. There’s wall there,” Elliott said this week. “The tire barrier was there before. So, you know, I don’t really have any issues with it. You don’t want to hit — you didn’t want to hit the tire barriers. You also don’t want to hit the wall. So, take your pick.”

Will Sonoma bring a first-time winner?

Speaking of Larson, Elliott’s Hendrick Motorsports teammate, Pockrass has him finishing as the runner-up to Elliott. Rounding out Pockrass’ top-five is Joey Logano, Tyler Reddick and Ross Chastain.

The former will start on the pole, looking for his first win both at Sonoma and of the season.

“I got a little loose up in Turn 2 and probably left a little bit out there, but it’s hard to hit a perfect lap every corner,” Logano said. “If you can average it all out to be pretty good, it works out. It was great to see the Autotrader Mustang having some speed here in Sonoma. It didn’t seem too bad in race trim either, so hopefully, we turn this into a victory tomorrow.”

Beyond the usual suspects, Pockrass believes that Noah Gragson could be the longshot with the best shot to win. Gragson has never started a Cup Series race at Sonoma. A win would do wonders for Gragson, who is looking for a new ride in 2025 following Stewart-Haas Racing’s announcement last week that it will shut down operations after the 2024 season.