NASCAR Playoff Predictions: Projecting the Field of 16 ahead of Michigan

Ahead of the FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan International Speedway, the crew at Racing Insights has updated their playoff projection for the NASCAR Cup Series.

Racing Insights “uses a combination of current standings and historical performance at upcoming tracks to determine the probability of each driver winning or making the playoffs on points,” per their website, and they’ve been thrown for a loop after the drama from last weekend’s race at Richmond.

Austin Dillon won the race, but the No. 3 has seen his playoff eligibility revoked after NASCAR reviewed his actions at the end of the Cook Out 400, where he spun Joey Logano and hooked Denny Hamlin coming to the checkered flag. He still has a couple more bites at the apple left, but it’s hard to imagine Dillon getting it done again.

Regardless, there’s 12 wheelmen who have already qualified for the playoffs due to winning a race, which you can see below. That leaves four spots to be filled, with two races until the regular season comes to a close.

Automatic Qualifiers for the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs:

1. Kyle Larson (4 Wins)
2. Denny Hamlin (3)
3. Christopher Bell (3)
4. William Byron (3)
5. Ryan Blaney (2)
6. Tyler Reddick (1)
7. Chase Elliott (1)
8. Brad Keselowski (1)
9. Alex Bowman (1)
10. Joey Logano (1)
11. Daniel Suarez (1)
12. Austin Cindric (1)

Last 4 In

• Martin Truex Jr. (99.99%)
• Chris Buescher (71.90%)
• Bubba Wallace (71.12%)
• Ty Gibbs (62.63%)

According to Racing Insights, Martin Truex Jr. is as good as guaranteed to make it into the Round of 16, at the least. Chris Buescher and Bubba Wallace have come close to finding wins in 2024, but they’re currently projected to race their way in. Joining them will be the young Ty Gibbs, who edges out Ross Chastain for the final spot, per the projections.

First 4 Out

• Ross Chastain (56.39%)
• Kyle Busch (9.94%)
• Michael McDowell (3.82%)
• Chase Briscoe (2.89%)

Meanwhile, Chastain comes the closest of the First 4 Out to making the playoffs, by a wide margin, but he remains on the outside looking in. Kyle Busch, Michael McDowell and Chase Briscoe have under a 10% chance, per Racing Insights, but perhaps one of them could shock the world at either Michigan or Daytona.

Could an unexpected wheelman get the job done and sneak into the playoffs, like Austin Dillon almost did at Richmond? Of course, and that’ll keep viewers tuned in over the next couple of weeks, before the playoffs begin. Still, it’s unlikely, considering the algorithm Racing Insights has deployed ahead of Michigan.