NASCAR Playoff Predictions: Projecting the Field of 16 ahead of Sonoma

The 2024 NASCAR Cup Series playoff picture is starting to take shape now 15 races deep into the 36-race campaign.

11 races remain until the playoffs begin at Atlanta Motor Speedway in September and as of now, nine drivers are provisionally locked into the Field of 16. The four guaranteed spots as multi-race winners this season are Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, William Byron and Christopher Bell. Tyler Reddick, Chase Elliott, Brad Keselowski, Daniel Suárez and now Austin Cindric, who won this past Sunday at Gateway, each have tallied a single victory this season. Cindric’s victory was quite the curveball in the playoff picture, as he entered the race with just a 5.66% chance of making it, according to Racing Insights.

“This is huge for this team,” Cindric said after the race. “I’m so glad I was able to get a win with Brian as my crew chief in the Cup Series. You never know when it’s gonna happen again. I just drove my butt off and hoped for the best.”

Cindric’s surprise triumph leaves seven spots up for grabs ahead of this Sunday’s Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway. Of the drivers still looking for their first win of the season, Martin Truex Jr. (99.06%), Ty Gibbs (97.38%) and Ross Chastain (91.74%) have the best odds of making the playoffs. Truex has historically been great at Sonoma, winning three of the last five races at the road course.

Several drivers on the NASCAR Cup Series playoff bubble heading into Sonoma

The last four in include reigning Cup Series champion Ryan Blaney (72.53%), Alex Bowman (71.98%), Joey Logano (53.90%) and Bubba Wallace (52.39%). Cindric’s win caused quite a shift to the playoff bubble. Wallace, for example, was at 78.21% heading into Gateway. Two-time Cup Series champion Kyle Busch saw his odds plummet from 51.39% to 36.54% after he crashed out early and finished P35.

“It’s very frustrating,” Busch said. “We can’t afford days like that. The No. 8 Rebel Bourbon Camaro wasn’t what it was last year, but it was a top-10 car, and we were going to finish there. Now we’re not going to finish at all.”

The same can be said for Chris Buescher, whose early-season close calls are starting to rear their ugly head. Buescher now has a 40.72% chance at making the playoffs going into Sonoma.

Fortunately for Buescher, Sonoma has been one of his better tracks recently. Buescher is the only driver to have top 5s in both Next Gen races at Sonoma, finishing P2 in 2022 and P4 in 2023. Michael McDowell, another driver on the outside looking in, should be in good position to potentially get a win at Sonoma as well. McDowell has finished inside the top-10 in his last two starts at Sonoma and won his lone race last season at a road course.