NBA Draft: Eight College Freshmen with Draft Decisions to Make
The NBA Draft will take place on June 26-27 this year, putting us less than four months away from seeing Commissioner Adam Silver at the podium. As we are winding down the college basketball season, there are a lot of questions still out there. We have talked about the parity in this draft ad nauseam, with a large portion of players not differentiating themselves into different tiers.
With that, some questions still need to be answered. I wanted to look through the current college freshman class at some players whose status is hoovering. Players projected to be drafted, but could also make a case to come back to college to boost their stock higher. In years past, we have seen players projected to be first-round draft picks, come back to improve their stock. This year, the draft range each player is seeing is so vast, that it could make these decisions interesting.
Remember this is fluid. We still have post-season college basketball to be played, along with NBA Draft workouts and combines. Players can improve, stall, or lower their stock over the next four months. But here we are, on March 11, so let’s discuss eight freshmen who will have a decision to make come NBA Draft night.
G Carlton Carrington, Pittsburgh
The Buzz: Carlton Carrington has a lot of the tools that teams are looking for at the highest levels. The 6-foot-5 guard is comfortable on or off the ball, he can create offense and process, and he can put the ball in the basket. Strength will be a big thing for him, as he is still one of the youngest players eligible for this draft. He will need to tighten the handle and work on his playing off his base in the paint. While Carrington has been inconsistent this season, he has gotten hot over the last few weeks. A return year at Pittsburgh would bring possible lottery talk, but with the finish he has seen to this season team eyes are open. His tools project.
As he has continued to get better, his name has started heating up. As it stands I would lean toward him leaving for the NBA Draft.
G Robert Dillingham, Kentucky
The Buzz: There is electricity with Robert Dillingham’s game. His ability to create offensive opportunities for himself brings fans to their feet on a nightly basis. With that said, his defense has made him unplayable to close games at times this season. He does have good length and he does have some twitchy athleticism. Dillingham has re-tooled his shot this season, and with that he has seen a lot of success, shooting 44.5 percent from three on the season. With all his offensive exploits the ball does have a tendency to stick in his hands and his decision-making can be up and down over the course of a game. The Kentucky roster lists Dillingham at 6-foot-3 and 176 pounds. There are only four players in the NBA this season who played in 40 games and averaged 15.0 or more minutes per game. The margins are narrow for him, and how he measures during the workout part of the draft could be big for him.
At this point in time, I would expect Dillingham to stay in the NBA Draft.
F Justin Edwards, Kentucky
The Buzz: Justin Edwards came to college with a lot of expectations. And while he got off to a slow start, he has started to find his comfort zone as the season has progressed. Edwards showed early that he had a less-than-creative handle and was a streaky shooter from three, both concerns coming out of high school. Over his last 11 games, in February and March, Edwards has stepped things up averaging 11.2 points and 1.2 steals while shooting 17-33 (51.5%) from three. The wing understands team defense and he is aggressive in the passing lanes. I would like to see him rebound better and he has now shown consistent processing this season, but Edwards is quick in transition, able to turn defense into offense, and he fills the lanes with a purpose, running straight to the front of the rim. Another year would help show consistency with the jump shot and continue to progress his handle in getting to his spots as a scoring threat. Justin Edwards turned 20 in December.
As things currently stand, I could see Edwards staying in the NBA Draft.
F Kyshawn George, Miami
The Buzz: Kyshawn George had a lot of preseason buzz. A late-bloomer from Switzerland, George had a recent growth spurt where he kept his guard skills in a lengthy 6-foot-8, 205-pound frame. This season was one of flashes for George. Due to injuries, he was thrust into the starting lineup for a good amount of the season. And he showed the tools that make him so intriguing. For starters, George is shooting 41.7 percent from three on the season. He handled well in the open floor and showed some athleticism in transition. The handle was loose in traffic and the processing was a step slow for a lot of the year. Another year in college, would allow him to take on a more featured role, and let him tighten things up. George is older for a freshman, as he will be 20 on NBA Draft night.
While George would benefit from another year in college, I could see a scenario where his draft stock, in this draft, becomes too high to pass up.
F Kwame Evans, Oregon
The Buzz: Kwame Evans came to Oregon as a McDonald’s All-American leading to lofty expectations. Evans came along at his own pace, showing what allowed him to be considered a premier connecting piece in high school. While he is not an alpha player, his 6-foot-9 frame and 7-foot-0-plus wing span allow him to guard multiple positions. He can handle the ball in the open floor, move it around as the ball does not stick, and he can knock down a spot jump shot. While the frame checks boxes, the question remains, what does he do at the next level? Evans will need to continue adding strength, but his skill set does span across the board. Another year in college could allow Evans to take on more of a primary role and develop an identity as a player.
Looking at things on March 11, I could see his decision going either way.
G Jared McCain, Duke
The Buzz: Jared McCain came into college with a lot of wins on his resume. The 6-foot-2 guard won a Nike Peach Jam E16 Championship, a California Open Division State Championship, and a gold medal with USA Basketball. He started the season a little show for Duke, but quickly picked things up in December. McCain has shown mental toughness and a willingness (and ability) to make a play. McCain is listed at 6-foot-3, 200 pounds by Duke, he is not very lengthy and has averaged 1.8 assists to 1.2 turnovers this season. He has shot 40.6 percent from three and 87.3 percent from the free throw line. Coming back to college would allow him an opportunity to show on-ball creation. But there is a long history of winning and shot-making on his resume.
At this point in time, it would not surprise me to see McCain stay in the NBA Draft.
F Collin Murray Boyles, South Carolina
The Buzz: Collin Murray-Boyles missed the first part of the year battling mononucleosis. The lefty from Columbia, South Carolina by way of Mount Pleasant (UT) Wasatch Academy wasted no time showcasing his production. In SEC play, Murray-Boyles is averaging 11.9 points, 7.1 rebounds, 2.1 assists, and 1.2 blocks. The freshman has a nose for the ball and a way of finding production. Listed at 6-foot-7, 233 pounds Murray-Boyles has attempted five threes on the season – all misses – and he is shooting 68.4 percent from the free-throw line. He plays well from the mid-post, able to dribble, shoot, and pass from that area. Another year in college would help add to that range, show he can guard perimeter-based forwards, and create opportunities going right. There is no denying his timing on the defensive end and ability to finish through contact from the left half of the court.
While I would expect him to test the NBA Draft waters, at this point in time, I would not be surprised to see Collin Murray-Boyles back in college next season.
G Reed Sheppard, Kentucky
The Buzz: Coming off the bench for most of the season, Reed Sheppard has been excellent. The Kentucky legacy guard has shown he can connect the pieces and step up in big moments to knock down a shot. Sheppard also has some excellent court awareness on the defensive end. His SEC-leading 2.5 steals per game is tricky because he is a streaky off-ball defender and can get beat in the half-court on the ball. Offensively, Sheppard has proven to possibly be the premier shooter in college basketball. He is shooting 52.6 percent from three on 4.4 attempts per game. In the five games Sheppard started, he showed some inconsistencies as the primary ball handler, doubling his turnover output from 1.7 to 3.4. While he has been inconsistent in distributing from the paint, he has also been inconsistent in finishing in the paint. Kentucky lists Sheppard at 6-foot-3, 185 pounds. As a complimentary guard, measurements could be big for him. Sheppard has been one of the more consistent players this entire season, not showing too many highs or lows throughout. Sheppard will be 20 years old on the night of the NBA Draft. This one could be one of the more interesting decisions throughout the 2024 NBA Draft process.
While it would make sense for him to leave, I would not be surprised to see him come back.