NFL Draft analyst believes Arch Manning has 'most to prove' this season

Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning has yet to play a game since being named the team’s full-time starter. Still, there is a ton of hype for the young quarterback, and even increasing NFL Draft speculation.

One of ESPN’s NFL Draft analysts, Field Yates, had Manning going first overall in his most recent mock draft. Despite already sitting there, Yates shared on Get Up that Manning also has the most to prove of any quarterback who could be in the 2026 NFL Draft. After all, he doesn’t have the experience that other quarterbacks have.

“In my mock last week, Arch Manning went number one overall to the Cleveland Browns,” Field Yates said. “An order determined by the Football Power Index here at ESPN. But it’s pretty simple. He’s made two starts in his career. He’s got under 100 career passing attempts.”

Arch Manning came to college with plenty of hype. The next quarterback in the Manning family, there’s been excitement surrounding him going back to high school. That was exacerbated by his pedigree as a recruit. He’d go to Texas as a five-star recruit and the top-ranked recruit overall in the Class of 2023.

In his playing time at Texas, which trough two seasons has come as a backup or in relief of Quinn Ewers as he battled injuries, Arch Manning has flashed that talent. In that time, he’s completed 63 of 95 passes for a 66.3 completion percentage. He has 969 career passing yards for nine touchdowns and two interceptions. He’s also rushed for 115 yards and four touchdowns on his career.

“I think the traits are off the charts here for Arch Manning,” Yates said. “But he has not yet been a starter in a game in which it was a true test of an opponent. That changes Saturday afternoon in Columbus when he faces off against the defending national champions. The ceiling is tremendous here for Arch Manning, but it’s going to take a massive, massive year to prove that he belongs in that number one pick consideration. Whether it’s in 2026 in Pittsburgh or the following year, because of course, there has been some suggestions from his grandfather that he is going to stay for at least two more years at Texas.”

Field Yates referenced Archie Manning saying earlier in the summer that his grandson, Arch, would be back at Texas in 2026 and not entering the NFL Draft. That remains to be seen, though. Arch pushed back on those comments recently, and if he struggles, then he may want to return to school to continue to develop.

Arch Manning is getting thrown into the deep-end as Texas’ full-time starting quarterback. The Longhorns open on the road against Ohio State to open the 2025 season, meaning Manning will be able to prove something about himself very quickly.