Skip to main content
Join Now

Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State odds: Win probability, final score prediction for Rebels, Bulldogs

IMG_0985by: Griffin McVeigh02/21/24griffin_mcveigh
NCAA Basketball: Mississippi State at Mississippi
Ole Miss forward Jaemyn Brakefield (4) spins toward the basket as Mississippi State Bulldogs forward Tolu Smith (1) defends during the second half during the second half at The Sandy and John Black Pavilion at Ole Miss. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports

Another night in the SEC is upon us, with one of the conference’s premier rivalries set to take place. Mississippi State will play host to the Ole Miss Rebels, an important one for many reasons. More than just a regular season matchup is at stake.

Ole Miss will enter Wednesday night in Joe Lunardi‘s Last Four In, saying the Rebels must get a win to remain in the NCAA Tournament field. Mississippi State is safer than its in-state rival but avoiding a home loss would greatly benefit its standing.

Mississippi State is currently the hot hand, winning three games in a row. Ole Miss just broke a three-game losing streak by taking down Missouri over the weekend. A huge matchup for both teams looking for more than bragging rights.

Odds for Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State

Coming into the game, Mississippi State is a 6.5-point favorite over Ole Miss, per FanDuel. The Bulldogs are also currently listed at -300 for the moneyline, right now, while the Rebels are sitting at +240.

The point total for the game is currently set at 141.5 points.

Final score predictions for Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State

BPI Predicted winner: Mississippi State
BPI Predicted point differential: 8.2
BPI Win probability (for Mississippi State): 78.3 percent
BPI Matchup Quality: 76.2

ESPN’s BPI is a model designed to provide a statistical comparison between two teams and predict future success. It agrees with Vegas about what to expect from this game. Leading into the game, BPI is projecting a point differential of 8.2 points in Mississippi State’s favor. It also gives the Bulldogs a 78.3 percent chance to win the game over the Rebels.

BPI also gives this game a matchup quality score of 76.2, which is the ninth-best quality score of the day.

KenPom Predicted final score: Mississippi State 75, Ole Miss 68
KenPom Win probability (for Mississippi State): 73 percent

KenPom is another predictive system for college basketball. It’s designed to show how strong a team is at a given time, without taking factors like injuries into account. For this game between Mississippi State and Ole Miss, KenPom agrees with BPI and Vegas, projecting the Rebels to lose by seven.

How to watch Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State

Time: 8 p.m. CT

Channel: ESPN2, FuboTV (streaming)

Location: Humphrey Coliseum — Starkville, MS

Humphrey Coliseum will play host for Wednesday night’s rivalry game. This is off the backs of an earlier season matchup at the Pavillion, won down the stretch by Ole Miss.

For fans not attending the game, ESPN2 will be where you can find the broadcast. It’s also going to be available to fans on streaming through FuboTV, which does have an option for a free trial.