UCLA vs. Oregon odds: Win probability, final score prediction in Pac-12 Tournament

UCLA will continue facing teams from the Beaver State state following their 67-57 win over Oregon State in round one of the Pac-12 Tournament. As they’ll take on the Oregon Ducks in the quarterfinal round at T-Mobile Arena on Thursday.

The Ducks and Bruins represent the No. 4 and No. 5 seeds in the tournament, sitting right alongside each other in the final Pac-12 regular season rankings after being two of five teams in the league to achieve double-digit conference wins this year.

UCLA took home the win in Los Angeles when they faced Oregon during the regular season, but will the Ducks bounce back with a postseason win? Check out both team’s odds to advance to the semifinals along with scoring predictions and more below.

Odds for UCLA vs. Oregon

The Ducks are narrow 2.5-point favorites over UCLA on Thursday according to FanDuel Sportsbook despite losing to the Bruins on the road by eight points in their previous matchup. With Oregon having -152 odds on the moneyline and UCLA at +126 odds if they can win their quarterfinal matchup outright and secure their third straight win.

The point total for the game also sits at an over-under of 130.5, tied for the second lowest point total on college basketball’s entire schedule of conference tournament games on Thursday. With UCLA notably having the Pac-12’s worst scoring offense this season but the league’s best scoring defense.

Final score predictions for UCLA vs. Oregon

BPI Predicted winner: Oregon
BPI Predicted point differential: 3.6
BPI Win probability (for Oregon): 65.2 percent
BPI Matchup Quality: 75.4

ESPN’s BPI (Basketball Power Index) concurs with FanDuel ahead of Thursday’s quarterfinal matchup. Predicting a 3.6-point differential in favor of Oregon while also giving the Ducks a 65.2% chance of eliminating the Bruins from the conference tournament.

The BPI is a model designed to provide a statistical comparison between two teams and predict future success, also giving the Pac-12 showdown a matchup quality score of 75.4. A respectable score for Oregon and UCLA’s game, but the 29th ranked matchup on college basketball’s strong slate of conference tournament games for Thursday.

KenPom Predicted final score: Oregon 68, UCLA 66
KenPom Win probability (for Oregon): 60 percent

KenPom is another predictive system for college basketball, designed to show how strong a team is at a given time, without taking factors like injuries into account.

Similar to FanDuel and ESPN’s BPI, KenPom also believes that Oregon will advance to the next round with a narrow, low scoring victory. Forecasting just a two-point win for the Ducks over UCLA while also giving them a 60% chance of getting revenge on the Bruins from the regular season.

How to watch UCLA vs. Oregon

Time: 5:30 p.m. ET
Channel: Pac Network, FuboTV (streaming)
Location: Las Vegas (NV)

UCLA pulled out a 71-63 win over Oregon when they last squared off on February 3 almost a month ago to the day. With the Bruins blowing an 18-point lead before pulling away late to save the win.

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Sophomore guard Dylan Andrews scored 21 points versus the Ducks in their last meeting and 31 points in the first round of the Pac-12 Tournament. As the Ducks will surely look to slow him down in a rematch from last year’s conference semifinals.