Racing Insights predicts full order of finish for NASCAR Save Mart 350 at Sonoma

Ahead of the Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway this weekend, Racing Insights has provided their full finishing order prediction for Sunday’s race.

Last season’s victor at Sonoma was Martin Truex Jr., and the No. 19 wheelman is in search of his first win of the 2024 campaign at the moment. Will he be able to get the job done this weekend in California, or will other road course savants, like Chris Buescher, Chase Elliottor Michael McDowell spoil the party? It’ll certainly be an unpredictable event, but Racing Insights did their best.

Check out their full finishing order prediction below, which utilizes their “advanced statistical formula that includes current track, current track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to arrive at a projected winner and full race results.” Many of the sports most popular wheelmen are well represented.

1) Chase Elliott

Once again, Chase Elliott barely missed a top ten, which seems to be happening a lot to the No. 9 over the course of 2024. Still, he finished P13 in Illinois, a solid afternoon for the sport’s most popular driver.

Throughout his career, Elliott has become known as a road course savant. He finished P5 during NASCAR’s date in Sonoma last season, so he’ll be looking for more this time around, as he looks to add to his win total. Racing Insights believes in him.

2) Tyler Reddick

The No. 45 of Tyler Reddick enjoyed success in Illinois. The 23XI Racing wheelman finished P4 on the afternoon, a more than solid finish for the driver who’s turning himself into a contender week-in and week-out.

While Reddick is usually a huge threat on road courses, he finished P33 in Sonoma last season. We’ll see if he can bounce back with a better run when the Cup Series returns to California this weekend.

3) Kyle Larson

The idea of being denied a playoff waiver weighed heavy on Kyle Larson’s mind in Illinois, but it was made official he will be eligible to race for the championship on Tuesday morning. He still battled for a top ten in Illinois, finishing P10.

Road-course racing hasn’t exactly been easy for Larson, but he did win an Xfinity Series race at COTA earlier this season, and he finished P8 in Sonoma last season. There’s some merit towards seeing him in victory lane.

4) Martin Truex Jr.

Sunday afternoon in Illinois was a race Martin Truex Jr. would like to forget. The Joe Gibbs Racing veteran ended up finishing P34 on the day, certainly not what the No. 19 would’ve preferred coming into the weekend.

Last season, Truex Jr. was victorious during the Cup Series’ trip to Sonoma. A win was never more needed by the Joe Gibbs Racing wheelman, and he’ll hope to take the checkered flag once again on Sunday.

5) William Byron

William Byron’s championship odds remained the same after a P15 finish in Illinois. He didn’t exactly have an eventful afternoon, but he secured a finish that you can’t simply complain about afterwards, at the least.

Alas, Byron has a win on the only other road course NASCAR has run in 2024, as the No. 24 dominated at COTA. A similar result wouldn’t be out of the question for the Hendrick Motorsports star.

Racing Insights’ Sonoma Prediction — P6 through P38:

6) Christopher Bell
7) Chris Buescher
8) Ty Gibbs
9) A.J. Allmendinger
10) Michael McDowell
11) Alex Bowman
12) Denny Hamlin
13) Ross Chastain
14) Kyle Busch
15) Daniel Suarez
16) Joey Logano
17) Austin Cindric
18) Ryan Blaney
19) Brad Keselowski
20) Chase Briscoe
21) Austin Dillon
22) Bubba Wallace
23) Ryan Preece
24) Justin Haley
25) Todd Gilliland
26) Erik Jones
27) Carson Hocevar
28) Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
29) Corey LaJoie
30) John Hunter Nemechek
31) Zane Smith
32) Noah Gragson
33) Harrison Burton
34) Josh Berry
35) Kaz Grala
36) Daniel Hemric
37) Will Brown
38) Cam Waters

There’s certainly a large contingent of fans who wouldn’t turn down a Chase Elliott victory at Sonoma this weekend. It would be his second of the season. We’ll see if the No. 9 proves Racing Insights correct, or if a different victor emerges from the pack.