Virginia vs. Duke odds: Win probability, final score prediction for UVA, Blue Devils

Virginia will travel to Durham on Saturday to take on No. 10 Duke in a matchup that will have major implications in the Blue Devils’ quest to win the ACC regular season title.

Duke currently sits 1.0 game back from No. 9 North Carolina in the current conference standings, which means every game leading up to their rematch on March 9 is a must-win for Jon Scheyer’s squad. Virginia ranks right below Duke, but is 2.5 games back from the top spot.

This will serve as the only matchup between the Cavaliers and Blue Devils during the regular season. Virginia has dropped two of its last three coming into the matchup, while Duke has split its last two games.

Odds for Virginia vs. Duke

Coming into the game, Duke is a 9.5-point favorite over Florida, per FanDuel Sportsbook. The Blue Devils are currently listed at -490 for the moneyline as of Saturday morning, while the Cavaliers are sitting at +365.

The point total for the game is set at 124.5 points.

Final score predictions for Virginia vs. Duke

BPI Predicted winner: Duke
BPI Predicted point differential: 12.0
BPI Win probability (for Duke): 89.7 percent
BPI Matchup Quality: 78.7

ESPN’s BPI is a model designed to provide a statistical comparison between two teams and predict future success. It agrees with Vegas about what to expect from this game. Heading into the game, BPI is projecting a point differential of 12.0 points in Duke’s favor. It also gives the Blue Devils an 89.7 percent chance to win the game over the Gators at home.

BPI also gives this game a matchup quality score of 78.7, which ranks No. 18 in quality scores predicted for the day.

KenPom Predicted final score: Duke 69, Virginia 58
KenPom Win probability (for Duke): 84 percent

KenPom is another predictive system for college basketball. It’s designed to show how strong a team is at a given time, without taking factors like injuries into account. For Saturday’s game between Virginia and Duke, KenPom agrees with BPI and Vegas’ decision to have the Blue Devils take care of the Cavaliers on their home court.

How to watch Virginia vs. Duke

Time: 6 p.m. ET
Channel: ESPN, FuboTV (streaming)
Location: Cameron Indoor Stadium — Durham, North Carolina

The opening tip between the Cavaliers and Blue Devils is scheduled for 6 p.m. ET and will air live on both ESPN. It’s also going to be available to fans on streaming through FuboTV, which has an option for a free trial.