Oregon State Football 2025 ESPN FPI Projections + 2024 Review
With ESPN recently releasing its 2025 Football Power Index season projections, BeaversEdge takes a closer look at what the computer models think of Oregon State’s upcoming season. They break down projected win/loss totals, playoff chances, and much more!
Oregon State 2025 FPI
| FPI | Rank | Projected Win/Loss | Win Out% |
| -4.5 | 80th | 6.4-5.6 | 0.1% |
Per ESPN’s analytics (see more below), Oregon State is projected to be around the 6-7 win mark in 2025. There’s a 68.5% chance the Beavers will reach six wins and a 0.6% chance that they’ll reach the 12-team College Football Playoff.
Oregon State’s odds across the board have dipped compared to last season (see below), but I’d argue that the Beavers field a stronger top-to-bottom team in 2025, and have a chance to exceed these mid-level expecations. It also perhaps indicates what we all knew entering this season, and it’s that the schedule is more challenging, with more 50-50 type games that could be the difference between a 6-7 win season and an 8-9 one. I also think nationally, there’s a little bit of unknown with this year’s Beaver squad, so they may be flying under the radar, so to speak.
| 6 Wins | Playoff % | Make NC | Win NC |
| 68.5% | 0.6% | 0.0 | 0.0 |
For comparison, I wanted to take a look back at last year’s FPI data that was released last summer.
2024 FPI
Oregon State’s numbers were better across the board, most notably with a near 90% chance to reach the postseason, a top-40 FPI rank, and a near 10% chance to reach the College Football Playoff. As we all know, things didn’t shake out that way as the Beavers went 5-7 a year ago, so that just shows how much variance can be in these projections, and how they are just that, projections.
| FPI | Rank | Projected Win/Loss | Win Out% |
| 5.3 | 38th | 7.9-4.1 | 0.9% |
| 6 Wins | Playoff % | Make NC | Win NC |
| 88.5% | 9.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily. FPI data from seasons prior to 2019 may not be complete.
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