Louisville's path to the ACC Championship Game is clearer than you think

Still in control of its own destiny just three weeks into the season, Jeff Brohm’s Louisville Cardinals have a realistic path to the ACC Championship Game — again. 

The Cards made their first-ever appearance in the conference’s title game, taking on Florida State in 2023, Brohm’s first season, and would have been in contention in the season’s final weeks last year had they not lost to Stanford and/or SMU. 

But this season feels different. And things have opened up in the ACC, with preseason favorite Clemson dropping its ACC opener over the weekend at Georgia Tech.

With Louisville on a bye this week and the first conference/road test coming at Pittsburgh on Sep. 27, it’s a good time to analyze the path to Charlotte. 

What’s changed?

Things in the league look very different from how they did a month ago. Florida State has started the season hot in a make it or break it year for Mike Norvell, soaring into the top-10 after dominant home wins over Alabama (31-17) and East Texas A&M (77-3). The Seminoles are not on the Cards schedule, but aside from games vs. Miami (Oct. 4) and at Clemson (Nov. 8), they have one of the easiest schedules in the ACC. They should easily be in contention for a spot in the playoff come December if they continue to handle business. 

Georgia Tech has emerged as a dark horse in the conference after a 3-0 start and statement wins over Colorado and Clemson. The Yellow Jackets will be ranked when the next AP poll releases, and have an underrated offense with Haynes King and Jamal Haynes leading a dynamic rushing attack. The defense is also the best it’s been under Brent Key.  

Virginia Tech has completely fallen off the radar with an 0-3 start and a 45-26 loss to Old Dominion yesterday. Brent Pry’s tenure with the Hokies is finished and what once looked like a sneaky road test for the Cardinals on Nov. 1, is now one of the easiest games remaining on the schedule. 

In Pittsburgh, the Panthers are still under the microscope without a quality win and an overtime loss at West Virginia yesterday. They’ll enter a bye week before the Louisville game, with the health of star running back Desmond Reid being the main storyline. He exited the game against WVU with a lower body injury and did not return. 

Key games on the schedule 

Miami

As of now, the Hurricanes are the favorites to win the league. But, Mario Cristobal’s teams have imploded at the end of the regular season. Last year, Miami lost two of their final three games after starting 9-0, but something feels different with this year’s team. The offensive line is one of the best in the nation, and with an improved defense, they’ll be in the playoff if they don’t stumble. Louisville’s Friday night date in the Sunshine State on Oct. 17 is probably the biggest conference game on the Cards’ schedule, and the Canes have a bye week prior. 

SMU

It’ll be late November when Louisville goes to Dallas, meaning the game could have ACC Championship Game implications for both teams. However, the Mustangs have struggled in back-to-back weeks, blowing a lead against Baylor and coming from behind at Missouri State. 

Clemson 

Clemson brought back some of the most production in the country, but hasn’t looked good. They squeaked past Troy after struggling to score against LSU, and the defense struggled with the Yellow Jackets’ run game. Simply put, Clemson doesn’t have the grip on the league it used to have, but will visit Louisville on a Friday night (Nov. 14) for the most anticipated home game of the season (besides Kentucky, of course). 

Avoiding a letdown  

This is the key for Louisville under Brohm. The past two seasons, the Cardinals have dropped a game they should have won — Pitt in 2023 and Stanford last fall. Bad losses like those give the U of L less room for error. Virginia, California, and Boston College all visit L&N Stadium this fall, and are all teams that not many are talking about in the conference this season. All three have improved. California just beat Minnesota by 13 at home, and Virginia is seeking a bowl appearance.