3-2-1: Cats win ugly opener

Cats Illustrated’s “3-2-1” feature returns with the typical format. Three things we’ve learned, followed by two things we’re asking, and finally, one bold prediction to finish it off.

This edition follows Kentucky’s 24-16 win over Toledo.

Three Things We’ve Learned

The investment in the offensive line appears to have paid off

Kentucky’s offensive line was far from perfect but for a Week 1 performance it was pretty strong. You didn’t hear Jager Burton’s name called much and that’s a good thing because it meant the snaps were good. Notably, there was not a single penalty called against the line for the entire game. Calzada was not sacked once, there were only three tackles for loss, and UK rushed for 5.1 yards per carry.

Considering all that Week 1 was a nice win for the folks involved in college scouting. We will learn a lot more about Shiyazh Pete and Alex Wollschlaeger in the weeks ahead against stronger opponents. Wollschlaeger had a hand in the game’s biggest play. Pete couldn’t quite get out ahead of a screen pass on a third down play. But over the whole course of the game both players were pretty solid and that’s what you were looking for.

UK made a serious investment in its offensive line in order to reestablish that Big Blue Wall identity and the first returns were pretty good.

There is pass rush potential with this group

There might not be a Josh Allen on this group but there are a lot of guys who were recruited for their ability to get after the quarterback. Sam Greene has the power to push an offensive lineman backward. Kam Olds’ length and speed in pursuit showed in his more limited action. Steven Soles had two sacks in the game and pass rush was already a proven strength.

David Gusta has great interior push and there were moments when Mi’Quise Humphrey Grace, Kahlil Saunders, and Jerod Smith all looked like they were getting good push.

PFF gave Kentucky the highest team pass rush score in the nation for Week 1. Ole Miss will be a much bigger test even with the questions on the offensive line, but those questions give UK an opportunity to impact the game with havoc.

Zach Calzada has a lot to prove

He’s going to have to win over the fan base because there were already a lot of skeptics. Before the season he was often listed toward the bottom of SEC quarterback lists. It wouldn’t be wise to write Calzada off after one bad performance. But when you start with 83 yards and so many errant throws against Toledo and you still have to face the tough parts of a top-10 schedule there is justifiable worry.

While Mark Stoops didn’t name a starting quarterback until fairly close to the season, sources indicated he was the likely QB1 going into the year. He got most of the reps with the ones through camp. If Kentucky had lost to Toledo then there might be an immediate quarterback competition. But Kentucky won and Stoops said he expects Calzada to play better moving forward. In other words, don’t expect a quick hook against Ole Miss. No coach is eager for a quarterback competition.

Calzada could have much better days and that would give the receiving corps an opportunity to show something. They didn’t get that chance often on Saturday.

If you listened to Mark Stoops on Monday it sounded like he might not be too far away from thinking about Cutter Boley. He said it would have been premature to pull the plug in Week 1 but don’t be surprised if Boley gets a look if things don’t improve.

Two Things We’re Asking

Will Brad White’s defense give the Cats a chance for a major upset?

If Kentucky is to have a chance against Ole Miss next weekend the upset bid has a lot to do with homefield advantage and Brad White’s defensive prowess. The drive log against Toledo was a thing of beauty until the fourth quarter. And we have seen White come up with schemes that have befuddled opponents in upset wins before. After the offensive showing it’s fair to expect improvement but hopes for an upset probably ride on the defense making plays.

Nobody knew what South Carolina had on its front seven last year until the game against Kentucky in Week 2. Kentucky probably doesn’t have that number of draft picks but a lot of players on the line and at linebacker showed they could get after the quarterback and White’s corner blitzes got home against Toledo.

Ole Miss blew out Georgia State as expected but Austin Simmons did have a couple of picks. The defense needs to force a couple of turnovers to set the offense up next week.

Can Kentucky run the ball against Ole Miss?

It seemed like Kentucky was eager to run the ball early in the game against a Toledo front seven that was entirely new this year. Then they seemed to get away from that a little bit when they turned it over. It was the run game that produced the best results on Saturday.

UK went for 220 yards and three scores on the ground against the Rockets. A lot of that was Dante Dowdell’s 79-yard run, but they still averaged 4.1 yards per carry otherwise.

Kentucky and Ole Miss present tempo challenges for one another. It can create an uncomfortable matchup for either side and both will seek to create the kind of game they are comfortable with. Because Kentucky is rotating more players on defense that could help keep the defense more fresh, but consistently running the ball with efficient success to set up favorable passing situations will be paramount. Georgia State’s Rashad Amos did have some room to run against the Rebels in a blowout loss.

One Bold Prediction

Kentucky will have a chance to win in the fourth quarter

I’m not quite ready to call for an upset. You could still make the case that this game presents Kentucky’s best chance at an upset this year because it’s early in the season, you have homefield advantage, and you’ve consistently seen close games against the Rebels. But I’m willing to say I think Kentucky will have a chance to win in the fourth quarter.

Brad White has some interesting tools at his disposal this year. I think with a better ability to select his own additions from one year to the next you could see that his eye for finding players for his scheme is an even bigger strength. All the guys they brought in were able to generate some push and I suspect the defense will force some problems at times. The Ole Miss offensive line was in the spotlight during fall camp.