How dangerous is Toledo?

Over the next month or two you will start to read more about Kentucky’s 2025 slate of opponents and the upcoming college football campaign.

Believe it or not, there’s a case to be made for the season-opener against Toledo as the most important game of the season for Kentucky and Mark Stoops.

While Kentucky has had tremendous success in early season and out-of-conference games under Stoops, this year’s game against Toledo should get significant attention. Not just because it’s the opener. Because of the questions for Kentucky after last year’s disappointing season and widespread belief that the Rockets could be a tricky opponent as the Cats are breaking in a new quarterback and working out the kinks with a largely retooled roster.

Kyle Rowland of the Toledo Blade recently ranked the Rockets’ 2025 games by order of difficulty. He picked the Kentucky game, in Lexington, as the toughest on the MAC team’s schedule.

“A win at Kentucky to open the season would set the table for the Rockets,” Rowland wrote. “However, it won’t come easily. The Wildcats may have had a down season, but they’re still an SEC team in their home stadium. Toledo won’t sneak up on Kentucky after what the Rockets did to Mississippi State last season. Don’t forget: Kentucky’s roster is filled with Ohio-born players who are familiar with Toledo. Similarly to the Miami game, a star player is going against his former team, in this case, Toledo running back Chip Trayanum. This could be a win-or-else season for UK coach Mark Stoops, who only has two starters back on offense and five on defense. They’re bringing in well-traveled quarterback Zach Calzada, who has tremendous upside but could also flame out. The defense has talented youth mixed with experienced transfers. The Wildcats have Ole Miss the week after Toledo. Could UT catch Kentucky looking ahead?”

Tucker Gleason runs the show for the Rockets behind center and Toledo is lucky to have him. He’s capable of going through all his progressions and has a ton of experience in the system. Gleason doesn’t have the biggest arm that Kentucky will face and there has been some inconsistency with the accuracy.

His backfield mate will be, of course, Chip Trayanum, who was at Kentucky a year ago. Trayanum didn’t have an opportunity to showcase his skillset in Lexington but he has drawn rave reviews for his performance with Toledo in the spring.

There are plenty of receiving targets for Gleason to spread the ball around to and on defense, the line and the secondary could be strengths at the MAC level. Replacing a lot of talent and production at linebacker will be important, but in the transfer portal era this is a dangerous team because of its blend of top returners, providing experience, and new arrivals.

If there’s a question about the offense it’s probably the line. Kentucky has an opportunity to disrupt things up front if the new pieces from the portal mesh and get off to a strong start. At times last year Toledo’s offense was potent and formidable, difficult to slow down and keep out of the end zone. But in other games they sputtered, and the results typically were not good when they couldn’t put a lot of points on the board.

Toledo defeated Pitt out of the ACC, 48-46 in a six overtime Gameabove Sports Bowl played last year at Ford Field in Detroit. Toledo also dominated Mississippi State in Starkville. The previous season Toledo lost a close one, 30-28, on the road against Illinois. While the program plays in the MAC, the players at Toledo are familiar with games like this against power conference foes.

Throw in the fact that there are probably fewer questions about Gleason in Toledo’s offense than there are about Zach Calzada in Kentucky’s and you can understand why the coaches will want to make sure nobody is looking past Toledo.

Various betting platforms have Kentucky as anywhere between a 9.5 and 10.5-point favorite after the Cats opened -12.5. That means Vegas expects this one to be closer than many other early non-conference games have been for UK under Stoops in recent years.

Gleason is very comfortable operating Toledo’s balanced offense which is heavy on zone read. The Rockets have been known for deploying an effective ground attack but because they struggled up front last season that wasn’t as strong and probably explains the unit’s inconsistency. The hope is that Trayanum can help improve the rushing attack but that may have more to do with the line’s performance than anything else.

On the other side of the ball there are losses up front but the coaches seem hopeful about the players who are stepping up into bigger roles. Linebacker was addressed via the transfer portal and everyone believes the secondary will be the best position unit on the defense and perhaps the team.

Since Toledo is perceived as being strong on the back end, and with Stoops committed to reestablishing a physical mentality, we could see a heavy dose of the ground game with Calzada and the backs so not as much is left to chance through the air.

If Kentucky has taken care of its offseason issues then it should be able to protect its homefield against a dangerous but inconsistent Toledo team. But if the Cats come out of the gate slow or struggle in Week 1, they’ll be facing an opponent that’s capable of taking advantage of it.