Kentucky-Auburn takes and predictions
Kentucky is an 11.5-point underdog going into a road game at Auburn this weekend so the Cats’ are decided underdogs in their bid to notch a first SEC win.
There’s some optimism for the offense with Cutter Boley rolling along but the defense has major questions. Auburn offers its own challenges.
Cats Illustrated staff writers Jeff Drummond and Justin Rowland share their takes and predictions according to the typical format.
What are the main reasons for Kentucky fans to be optimistic about the game this weekend?
Jeff Drummond: You can see the Kentucky offense building confidence with each week. Cutter Boley is playing really well at quarterback, and he’s starting to get some wide receivers to step up and make big plays in the passing game. I like how Bush Hamdan is using all of his weapons right now, particularly the increased targets for guys like Seth McGowan and Jason Patterson out of the backfield. Auburn isn’t a team that one would expect to score a bunch of points on Saturday, so I think UK has a chance to make it competitive.
Justin Rowland: The offense is making progress and Auburn doesn’t know how to win games very well. Those are the two main things you would hang your hat on. Cutter Boley has had three good games in a row and put up big numbers against Tennessee. If he can continue to play at a high level it could give the team a chance. He’s faced some talented teams and has kept the offense moving so there’s good reason to believe they could have some success this weekend if he continues throwing the ball well. But the bigger source of optimism would come from Hugh Freeze’s difficulty winning games on the Plains. This program had four home losses last season so UK’s 1-10 record there since 1965 has to be balanced out with the Tigers’ recent performance. And they’ve lost four games this year, struggling in close games.
What are the main reasons they should be concerned?
Drummond: The Auburn defense is really strong, so the Cats have a big challenge to sustain drives and get the ball in the end zone. Meanwhile, the Kentucky defense appears to be headed in the other direction right now. I think that’s the big reason for the large point spread in this one. The Tigers may be struggling offensively, but Tennessee scored with ease all night long against UK last week. Auburn has to be coming into this matchup thinking it’s a chance to get right on the offensive side of the ball.
Rowland: Kentucky doesn’t know how to win either. Whatever Auburn’s problems have been, Kentucky’s have been worse. The Wildcats’ lows have been lower and their highs have also been lower than Auburn’s this season. It would probably take a good game from Kentucky and a bad game from Auburn for the Cats to win on that field. Has Kentucky done enough overall to give much confidence they’re ready to go on the road and win on that field?
While Auburn’s passing game has been ugly Kentucky’s defense has really struggled. They’re around No. 100 in yards per play. If they can’t slow down the Auburn run game it’s going to be a long day and the Tigers could keep Boley on the sidelines for a lot of it.
Auburn has allowed five straight opponents to pass for more than 200 yards but the Tigers have six interceptions and two touchdowns allowed during that time. It’s a big challenge for the Kentucky offense.
What’s your prediction for the game’s outcome and who will be Kentucky’s MVP?
Drummond: Auburn 27, Kentucky 20 — The Cats keep it close for most of the day, but I can’t see them bringing home an SEC road win at this time. If they do, I think Cutter Boley has to have another monster passing game like he did last week to earn MVP honors.
Rowland: Auburn 26, Kentucky 13. At this point I think you have to believe that Boley is an asset for them, not just as a promising future prospect but as a player right now. But that isn’t enough for me to pick a road SEC win. Auburn runs the ball well enough and extends drives more consistently than Kentucky and the Cats play behind for most of the game. Boley is the MVP with a couple of touchdown passes. As promising as UK’s offense has been, Auburn’s defense hasn’t given up much.