Kentucky-Indiana Predictions

Will Kentucky finally notch its first meaningful win of the season or will the blues continue for the blue and white?

That’s the question everyone is asking with Indiana set to arrive in Lexington. Kentucky is the home favorite but every real test this year has ended in a loss.

Cats Illustrated staff members make their predictions before UK-IU.

Jeff Drummond: This feels like a must-win situation for Mark Pope. Kentucky is 0-4 against quality competition this season, and the Wildcats simply cannot afford to slip to 0-5 with a second big game on its home floor at Rupp Arena. It’s time to start stacking some good wins. It won’t be easy. Indiana just crushed Penn State 113-72 on Tuesday night. One-time UK portal target Lamar Wilkerson went off for 44 points and 10 3-pointers, so he’ll clearly be the focus of the Cats’ defensive efforts. I look for Otega Oweh and Denzel Aberdeen to take turns attempting to slow him down, and those are solid matchups for the UK defenders. Wilkerson will have to work to get his on Saturday. Offensively, the Cats need a couple of guys to step up, be it Trent Noah or Kam Williams or Jaland Lowe. If they do, I think Kentucky wins this one 78-73.

Chris Fisher: Given Kentucky’s 0-4 mark vs. marquee opponents and the current state of its 2026 recruiting efforts, things are already ugly in Lexington. But I shudder to think what it will look (or sound) like if Indiana, led by a couple of former UK portal targets in Lamar Wilkerson and Reed Bailey, comes into Rupp Arena and leads the Hoosiers to a victory.

But parroting what I said last week prior to the North Carolina game, until I see it, it’s just difficult to pick the Wildcats to win in this spot simply based on the body of work we’ve seen to this point. The Tar Heels didn’t even play well in that game and were still able to come into Rupp Arena and leave with a win. It gets even harder to see the vision when we don’t know what Jaland Lowe will look like if he plays extended minutes and whether Mo Dioubate will even play at all.

This was the rivalry when I was a kid so as much as it pains me, give me IU over UK 72-66 in another ugly one at Rupp.

Justin Rowland: I know Kentucky is the Vegas favorite but this is the kind of spot where I’ll just believe it when I see it. Four tests, four losses. It’s been very ugly when a team has had the size, length, and talent to pressure the guards and push the offense back. Kentucky is actually one spot ahead of IU in KenPom’s rankings (19th and 20th respectively). The problem for me, in picking a Kentucky win, is that nothing that we’ve seen against the bad teams translates against better teams. And even in a 35-point win against NCCU there were so many defensive lapses the other team couldn’t capitalize on. Maybe this is the day Kentucky gets it turned around. If they get a win we start to talk about how they can build on it and create some momentum. But for a team that has not been good so far I’ll pick IU 75-70, though Otega Oweh has a solid game.