Kentucky-Vanderbilt predictions
If everyone’s being honest few probably expected Kentucky to be in this position one month ago.
The formerly 2-5 Cats are now 5-5 and have two opportunities to gain bowl eligibility.
It won’t be easy against Vanderbilt in Nashville on Saturday, with the Cats as underdogs by more than a touchdown according to Vegas. But that spread has dropped and Kentucky will come in with confidence.
Cats Illustrated staff writers share their takes and picks on the UK/Vanderbilt matchup.
What are the main reasons for Kentucky fans to be optimistic about the game?
Justin Rowland: Kentucky is a much improved football team compared to the one everyone was down and out on a month ago. This is one of the more confident teams in the Southeastern Confidence and they’re playing inspired football with something to prove. Cutter Boley has sustained a quality level of play over a long time and is one of the more promising young quarterbacks in the league. His receivers are improving, the offensive line is coming off two very strong games, and the defense is playing like one of the league’s more solid units for now. Vanderbilt’s pass defense has let them down at times. Kentucky has had success in Nashville and the Cats won their last road game at Auburn. For those down on the quality of wins, Auburn nearly beat Vanderbilt and Florida has been close most of the season. Vanderbilt is a really good team but they have won their home conference games by seven points apiece so the margins are still pretty thin. With everything riding on this game for Vanderbilt if the game is close late maybe some players get tight and make some mistakes.
Jeff Drummond: Kentucky has some nice momentum rolling into this matchup. If you had asked me four weeks ago if the Cats had any chance to win in Nashville,I would have said it was slim to none. But the UK offense continues to improve with Cutter Boley at quarterback, and the Cats have found some playmakers at receiver. You go into games now believing they can score 27-plus points if they need to. Defensively, Brad White’s unit has shut down three of the last four SEC opponents they have faced.
Chris Fisher: This team just shows up every week and battles and in a weird way, it wasn’t until they had nothing left to lose that Kentucky started playing (and coaching) with nothing to lose. Looking back at the close losses to Ole Miss and Texas, even if one of those results were different, the entire complexion of this season would be entirely different. And if you really pay attention to the SEC and the on-field results this season, there’s not a lot of separation top to bottom. And if the Wildcats show up to play and take care of the football, they can play with anybody on any given Saturday.
What are the main reasons for Kentucky fans to be concerned about the game?
Rowland: Vanderbilt is really good. They’re legitimately one of the best teams in the SEC. The offense is potent and really hard to stop. They’re balanced, well led on the field, and are incredible on third down. They’re a very frustrating team to play against with great personnel for their scheme. They are certainly better than the teams Kentucky has defeated over the last three weeks so this is a different challenge altogether. The environment will also be much tougher than it usually is for Kentucky in Nashville. Even when Vanderbilt has lost they have slowed the run pretty well. So I think a lot is riding on Cutter Boley. Diego Pavia is, of course, a great game manager.
Drummond: That Kentucky defense I mentioned above is also starting to show some wear and tear from the rigors of an SEC schedule. The Cats could be without inside linebacker Alex Afari and several important pieces in the secondary, and that’s a bad recipe for a long day against Diego Pavia. Nobody has really found a way to completely shut down the Commodores, and I wouldn’t expect the Cats to be able to win a rock fight in this one like they did against Auburn.
Fisher: Quarterback and Heisman hopeful Diego Pavia just presents a ton of problems with both his arm and his legs. And that could be a particularly tall order for a banged up Kentucky defense.The Commodores have shown the ability to light up the scoreboard this season and even though the UK offense has found itself in recent weeks, I’m still not sure they can keep up without at least slowing down Pavia and the Vandy offense. And Vanderbilt still has an outside shot at the College Football Playoff so I don’t think motivation or focus will be a factor.
What’s your game prediction and who will be Kentucky’s MVP?
Rowland: Vanderbilt 34, Kentucky 24. I think Kentucky is playing some really solid football right now but on the road against a team with playoff aspirations and one of the top players in college football at quarterback is too much in the end. I’ll say Kendrick Law has another good game after last week.
Drummond: Vanderbilt 30, Kentucky 23 — The Cats put up a good fight, but I think you have to give the benefit of the doubt to Heisman hopeful Diego Pavia and the Commodores, fighting to stay in contention for the College Football Playoffs. If UK finds a way to pull the upset, it will need some huge momentum plays from the defense and/or special teams. Give me Ty Bryant for MVP with a big interception in this one.
Fisher: Vanderbilt 27, Kentucky 20 – Even outside of Diego Pavia, the Commodores have play-makers and I think that’s going to be a little bit too tall of an order for Kentucky, who’s beginning to wear thin on the defensive side of the ball. FirstBank Stadium is anything but an intimidating place to play and UK always has its share of fans in Nashville, but as much as they’ve improved, there’s been a night and day difference at home versus on the road, where they’ve scored a combined 30 points in three games this season. The Cats keep it close but Pavia is the difference. UK will have to wait another week to reach bowl eligibility.