Keys to an Upset

Texas opened as a 12.5-point favorite against Kentucky and the line is now -13.5 for the Longhorns. That means the Horns are decided favorites but it also means that stranger things have happened that a hypothetical Kentucky win.

While few people are picking a Kentucky upset after Texas’ win against Oklahoma there are some things that would make an upset bid much more likely.

Cats Illustrated takes a look at some factors that could shape the game based on how the season has gone so far.

1. Kentucky’s defense must win the matchup with Texas’ offense

This almost seems like a non-negotiable because it’s hard to see Kentucky’s offense consistently getting the best of a Texas defense that is only surrendering 11 points per game. To put more of a fine point on it, almost any conceivable Kentucky upset bid involves the defense turning in a strong showing. Texas only allows 2.49 yards per carry and has picked off eight passes compared to three touchdown passes allowed. Texas’ prime vulnerability has been on offense.

While the Horns’ average of 28.5 points per game looks good they only scored seven against Ohio State, 21 against Florida, and 23 against Oklahoma. That means Texas is only averaging 17 points per game against power conference competition.

Texas has only converted 32% of its third down attempts in its two losses. In its four wins, three of which were against non-power conference teams, the Horns have converted 43% of third downs.

When you look at the drive chart at the end of tomorrow’s game it needs to be ugly for the Texas offense. Lots of punts, turnovers, or turnovers on downs. Drives that a short and eating up a small amount of clock.

There’s a problem with this path. Kentucky’s defense has not been on the same level as the best defenses Mark Stoops or Brad White have had and the numbers bear that out.

2. In particular, Kentucky’s defensive line needs to dominate.

Given that Kentucky’s defense may need to convincingly win the matchup with Texas’ offense, the most likely way for that to happen is clear. Kentucky’s defensive line needs to be the most dominant unit in the game.

We’re talking most likely upset paths, so the defensive line is in focus. A unit that has Mi’Quise Humphrey-Grace, David Gusta, Kahlil Saunders, Tavion Gadson, and others has a chance against a Texas offensive line that hasn’t been great.

Texas has allowed 10 sacks (No. 50 nationally) and ranks No. 81 in tackles for loss allowed. And that’s in spite of the Longhorns running fewer plays than most of the teams in the SEC.

Kentucky’s havoc numbers have not been especially strong of late after a promising opener against Toledo. But given the defensive line talent and the pass rush ability of some of the EDGE guys brought into the program this year, getting after it in the backfield and forcing Arch Manning mistakes seems like an obvious key to the game.

PFF gives Texas the ninth-best pass protection score in the SEC through half the season. For context, Kentucky’s offensive line rates eighth in the same PFF metric. PFF also gives Kentucky the sixth-best pass rush score in the league.

3. Shiyazh Pete and Alex Wollschlaeger have their best games of the season

If that happens and Kentucky is able to neutralize or slow down the Texas pass rush it would be a tremendous help for Cutter Boley.

Boley put up good numbers and did quality work against a very talented Georgia defense, but one that isn’t known for getting after the quarterback as much as some other teams. Against Texas, Boley is likely to encounter a lot more pressure, at least situationally. Play-calling will have to account for this danger from the very earliest part of the game because Kentucky has had too many sacks allowed against the better teams it has played. Many of those sacks have not been on the offensive line but that speaks to how important Boley’s own decision making will be.

For Boley to have a real chance against such a talented defense, one he did some good things against last year, the offensive line has to pass protect. The tackles are in the spotlight. Shiyazh Pete and Alex Wollschlaeger have had quality seasons but they haven’t been perfect. Sometimes Wollschlaeger’s need for more strength has shown up and Pete sometimes oversets. Tight ends and backs will be helping the tackles quite often but those two transfer tackles are very important.

4. Short-yardage conversions on offense

We could spotlight the need for Kentucky’s offense to stay in manageable down and distance situations against a team that can set you behind the chains. That will be important, although Boley does give Kentucky more opportunity to hit big plays than a lot of other UK quarterbacks we’ve seen in recent years.

But Kentucky is going to have to convert short-yardage situations and Texas has been good at getting off the field in third and shorts. Opposing teams have run the ball 14 times in third and short (3rd and 1-3 yards to go) situations this year and have only converted 50% of those opportunities.

Kentucky’s offense probably isn’t going to score a ton of points against the Texas defense but the offense does have to stay on the field long enough to help the defense. Kentucky has converted 14-of-18 first down rush attempts in those situations. That’s a good clip and it needs to carry against Texas. This variable alone won’t be enough to carry Kentucky to victory. But it’s the kind of detail that will determine the outcome of drives and who has the ball.

5. The home crowd impacts the game

It’s tough to tell what the atmosphere will be like at Kroger Field on Saturday night. The team has been spinning its wheels with three SEC losses and basketball is right around the corner.

Regardless of the kickoff atmosphere, the team needs to start the game well enough to create a great home field atmosphere. Texas is 0-2 on the road this season and its offense has really struggled on the road. There may be a tendency to assume Arch Manning is definitely trending in the right direction but he hasn’t won a road game this season.

We’re looking for potential vulnerabilities in the Longhorns and the fact that they haven’t proven they can go on the road and win the SEC yet means it’s something we’re interested in.