Staff Picks and Takes: UK-UGA
Kentucky is up against major odds in an early Saturday game at Georgia. Cats Illustrated writers Jeff Drummond and Justin Rowland share game takes and picks according to the usual format.
Keep up with all the action in the House of Blue game thread tomorrow.
What are the main reasons for optimism for Kentucky?
Jeff Drummond: It’s hard to summon a drop of optimism for this particular matchup, but perhaps you can look back on last year’s matchup — ending with a highly competitive 13-12 win for the Bulldogs — as a sign that you just never really know. I think UK is better team than it was last year, and UGA might be slightly weaker than the team that came to Lexington a year ago.
Justin Rowland: I think the most you can do is point out certain things that could mitigate what seems to be something impossible. It would definitely be a shocking upset. But shocking upsets in games with lines like this do take place. Maybe Georgia comes out emotionally down after a loss to Alabama and Kentucky rallies with something to prove. If Kentucky can play a conservative brand of football and milk the clock it could still be within range in the second half. Georgia has not been a dominant team this season. The Bulldogs had a great win at Tennessee but it took all they had, and lost at Alabama. That means they’re definitely a top tier team but maybe not the UGA of the very best Smart teams. Hey, we’re talking optimism in this question!
What are the main reasons for concern against the Bulldogs?
Drummond: Georgia is still Georgia. It’s a roster loaded with four- and five-star talent. The Bulldogs will have an advantage at nearly every position matchup on the field. But, above all right now, Kentucky just can’t put points on the board. It’s going to be hard to be in this game without scoring more than 27 points, and the Cats just don’t seem capable of doing that.
Rowland: The matchup is tough. Traditionally under Stoops the difficulty with Georgia was that the teams played similar brands of football but the Bulldogs just did it better. Some other games recently have played out differently but the common theme is it’s just hard for Kentucky to score against UGA. Kentucky has averaged about nine points per game against Georgia the past eight seasons. It’s hard to win games like that. The way some of those games play out, the margins haven’t been all that bad. But it has been hard for Kentucky to ever truly test Georgia’s defense. That has to change and the offense has to prove it at this point, especially after the game against South Carolina. The defense also has to play up to the standard of its better years to have a chance. There have been too many missed tackles and issues for you to have too much confidence in that unit against the UGA offense.
What’s your prediction for the game and who will be Kentucky’s MVP?
Drummond: With this game being played in Athens and the home team coming off an emotional loss to Alabama, you’d be hard-pressed to find a single UK fan thinking about pulling an upset. That said, games between Kirby Smart and Mark Stoops are typically closer than anyone believes they will be. I’ve got Georgia 34, Kentucky 16. Willie Rodriguez is the MVP for the Cats, catching a few Cutter Boley passes to keep some drives moving better than we saw last week at South Carolina.
Rowland: There are several things to consider here. These games are typically hard-hitting, physical, and often ugly. If it’s ugly, that’s good news for Kentucky. That means the game is within range and the home crowd is a little restless. I just don’t like the matchup on either side, the venue, or the fact that UGA is coming off that loss. Maybe the Cats prove me wrong but I’ll say UGA 35, UK 10 with the game rarely in doubt. I’ll go with Dante Dowdell as a darkhorse MVP with UK looking to get run the ball to avoid the kind of spiral we saw in the second quarter last week.