Staff Predictions: UK-Texas takes and picks

Does Kentucky have a chance to do something special and pull the kind of win that fans will never stop talking about?

Or will the Longhorns drop the Cats to 0-4 in the SEC, further cementing Kentucky’s current status in the league’s basement?

Cats Illustrated staff writers Jeff Drummond and Justin Rowland share takes and picks in advance of Kentucky-Texas according to the usual format.

What are the main reasons for Kentucky fans to be optimistic about Saturday’s game?

Jeff Drummond: It’s a challenge to conjure any level of optimism for Kentucky these days when it comes to SEC games, but the Cats will be playing at home against a team that just came off an emotional win over its biggest rival. Could Texas overlook UK after winning the Red River Rivalry game? Always a possibility when you’re dealing with college kids. I would also note that Mark Stoops’ teams almost always win one game you were not expecting them to win. This would be a nice time to break that out.

Justin Rowland: Truthfully that has a lot more to do with Texas’ struggles than anything Kentucky has done to date. We could start with a legitimately positive point like what Cutter Boley did against Texas last year coupled with what he did against Georgia last week.

Then you take a closer look at Texas and realize why the Horns are less than a two touchdown favorite. That offense just has not been close to the level that anybody predicted it would be at. It has nearly cost the Longhorns a chance at the playoff and now they’re digging out of a hole.

The Horns are down a couple of starters on the offensive line and that unit hasn’t been elite this season. And what’s more, Texas is 0-2 on the road this season and there are still a lot of questions about Arch Manning. Maybe Texas will be ripe for an emotional letdown after a big win against OU as an underdog.

What are the main reasons for Kentucky fans to be concerned?

Drummond: I’m not sure there’s a single position matchup where you might give the Cats an edge in this one. The Kentucky offense versus the Texas defense is a difficult challenge, and the Cats’ defense has not shown any signs of being able to slow down an offense with as many weapons as the Longhorns have. UK would likely need a lot of self-inflicted mistakes from Texas to win this one.

Rowland: Have you watched Kentucky football recently? Until we can go into a game with confidence that one turnover won’t spiral into three, it’s going to be tough to have confidence against any SEC team. Kentucky’s recent SEC record and also its recent record in home games doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence.

Boley is going up against one of the nation’s top defenses and they are probably more of a challenge in terms of style than Georgia was. The matchup between Kentucky’s offense and Texas’ defense doesn’t look favorable for the Cats at all on paper.

What if Texas does come in ripe for a letdown but instead is buoyed by that win and sees it as an opportunity to build momentum for a championship push? Texas’ mindset and the quality of its practices this week will have a big factor in the outcome. In fact, that may be the biggest factor in the outcome.

What’s your game prediction and who will be Kentucky’s MVP?

Drummond: Texas 31, Kentucky 19 — The Cats’ SEC woes at Kroger Field continue as they add another loss to a streak that now spans more than two calendar years. Kentucky plays hard, keeps it competitive at times, but just doesn’t have the horses to keep pace with the Longhorns. Jacob Kauwe boots four long field goals as UK’s MVP.

Rowland: There are pathways to this game being close and to Kentucky having an opportunity late. But there’s not enough on paper for me to predict a Kentucky win. The most likely outcome is that Boley allows UK to hit on some bigger plays but the offense will struggle to consistently find success and may even have some big mistakes if they struggle to block the very talented Texas defense. I’ll pick Texas 27-10 and will highlight Ty Bryant who gets another pick.