Staff Takes and Picks: UK-South Carolina

Kentucky takes on South Carolina tomorrow night in a big test for Cutter Boley, still early in his college career.

Cats Illustrated staff members Jeff Drummond and Justin Rowland share takes and picks in the usual format.

What are the main reasons for UK fans to feel optimistic about the game?

Jeff Drummond: On paper, this matchup is shaping up like some of the years when Kentucky held the upper hand on South Carolina. The Cats have been very good at running the ball, and the Gamecocks have been struggling to stop the run. They gave up 285 yards on the ground last week to Mizzou. Conversely, the South Carolina offense has been woeful at running the ball this season, averaging 2.6 yards per carry. The UK defensive line should have a big advantage against a suspect SC offensive line.

Justin Rowland: If Kentucky can handle this environment I think the game actually sets up very well for them. Kentucky looks like the kind of team that should be able to run the ball well enough to create good down and distance situations for Cutter Boley. If they can do that then it makes his assignment a much easier assignment. South Carolina gave up almost 300 rushing yards to Missouri and the Gamecocks have not looked good in dropping their first two SEC games. If you think Kentucky has an advantage in the trenches then that gives you some confidence they have a good shot.

Sellers was banged up relatively recently and South Carolina hasn’t been able to establish the run. If UK can make the game a matchup between its own efficiency and trying to prevent big plays from LaNorris Sellers then that is the kind of game you could win.

What are the main reasons for UK fans to be concerned?

Drummond: LaNorris Sellers is a really talented quarterback who may be able to compensate for the Gamecocks’ lack of balance if Kentucky does not show improvement in limiting explosive pass plays. He likes to attack downfield, and he’s got dangerous receivers on the perimeter. Not surprisingly, South Carolina is also really strong in special teams again this year under Shane Beamer. The Gamecocks already have three punt returns for touchdowns and always threaten to block kicks. If the Cats have a breakdown in their coverage or protection units, it could make the difference in what is expected to be a tight game.

Rowland: It’s a tough assignment for Cutter Boley. We have seen more proven and experience Kentucky quarterbacks than Boley struggle against the environment in Columbia before. The offensive line gave up three sacks against Ole Miss so as good as the numbers look for this year, Saturday’s game is a tougher challenge than the team has faced in two of three games so far.

Sellers has the ability to rip off huge plays with his arm or legs so you’re never really in the clear unless you break the game open. But the big concern is Kentucky’s recent track record of doing things to lose conference games.

What’s your prediction for the game and who will be Kentucky’s MVP?

Drummond: South Carolina 24, Kentucky 20 – This is a game where I’d like to pick the Cats to pull an upset, but there are two nagging issues that prevent me from doing so: (1) It’s going to be played in a tough environment with an opponent that’s backed into a corner after an 0-2 start in SEC play; and (2) Mark Stoops’ teams have just not performed coming out of open dates over the years. Even the really good UK teams have struggled with them. If the Cats find a way to win, I think kicker Jacob Kauwe could be the difference in a low-scoring affair. He’s my MVP pick.

Rowland: I’ll take Kentucky 23, South Carolina 20. I like the matchup for Kentucky. The question is whether UK can avoid the big mistakes. It’s a tough assignment for a young quarterback but South Carolina has had plenty of its own issues early this year and I think the team will rally for Mark Stoops. I’ll pick Seth McGowan as the top player for Kentucky. He’s playing with something to prove every time he touches the ball.