UK-Michigan State takes and picks

Kentucky has a chance to notch its first significant win of the season in the Champions Classic against Michigan State tonight.

The Wildcats are 5.5-point favorites against the Spartans in the annual classic which takes place at Madison Square Garden.

Given the Cats’ loss to Louisville at the KFC Yum! Center last week Big Blue Nation is especially dialed into tonight’s game. Here are predictions on the game as well as takes on the matchup from Cats Illustrated writers Jeff Drummond and Justin Rowland.

What are the main reasons for Kentucky fans to be optimistic about tonight’s game?

Jeff Drummond: I think Kentucky is a little further along than Michigan State on the offensive end of the floor, even with Jaland Lowe’s shoulder setback for the Cats. KenPom has UK at No. 8 and MSU at No. 57 in the (granted, small-sample size) offensive efficiency rankings. The Cats have depth of scoring that should really favor them when they go to the bench. Also like the way Mark Pope’s squad is dominating the glass. That is always a key when you’re playing against Tom Izzo’s Spartans.

Justin Rowland: Michigan State has not shot the ball well from outside. It’s never wise to read too much into that going into one game. That could be something that bites them in the long run but it’s also a good sign for Kentucky tonight. UK still has to prove to the BBN that it will be the kind of shooting team that Mark Pope hopes it will be but Michigan State has some real questions there.

Media covering Big Ten basketball picked Michigan State sixth in the conference before the season so this is not an elite opponent on paper.

What are the main reasons for Kentucky fans to be concerned?

Drummond: If Michigan State can control the tempo and play this game in the 60s or 70s instead of UK’s preferred pace, it will give the Spartans a better chance to win. Also have to wonder if we see MSU attempt to make it a physical game like we saw Georgetown do in the exhibition loss and what Louisville did last week in its win over the Cats. Will the game be called loose or tight? Could make a big difference.

Rowland: The illusions of the offseason were shattered at Louisville last week. Almost every year the Big Blue Nation talks itself into something resembling invincibility and that first loss is always a gut punch. It’s a little different this season because the Cats are waiting on the roster to get to the level it’s ultimately expected to be at, but we aren’t far removed from that UofL game and it’s hard to get it totally out of your memory. Kentucky’s defense was good enough for stretches, but not good enough for the game.

While it doesn’t look like one of Tom Izzo’s best teams on paper we also know that Izzo’s Spartans have the ability to out-tough you and muck it up almost any time. So if Kentucky comes out with less than excellent tenacity and fight for loose balls and rebounds then it becomes a 50/50 game.

What’s your prediction for the game and who do you believe Kentucky’s MVP will be?

Drummond: Kentucky 79, Michigan State 73 – I think the Cats bounce back in this one with a good showing at Madison Square Garden. They played poorly at the Mecca last year against Ohio State, so I would expect a more focused approach this time. Mo Dioubate is my MVP in his return home.

Rowland: Kentucky 82, Michigan State 78. I think this will be a very competitive game and given Kentucky’s loss against Louisville I’ll say the Cats come in prepared and focus. When Michigan State makes a run I think guys like Collin Chandler, Mo Dioubate, and Kam Williams will step up with timely answers. But my MVP pick for the game is Chandler. I think he will be ready on the big stage.