UK-UofL takes and picks
Kentucky and Louisville renew one of college basketball’s top rivalries and this year’s edition is one of the better versions we have seen in a while, at least on paper.
Louisville is a 4.5-point home favorite before tonight’s game at the KFC Yum! Center in Louisville with both teams harboring title aspirations.
It’s the biggest test of the year for either team so far and the Commonwealth will be talking about it for a year.
What are the main reasons for optimism for Kentucky fans?
Jeff Drummond: I’m not sure if “optimism” is the right choice of words for a game being played this early in the season between teams ranked No. 9 and No. 12. I sense a lot of apprehension on both sides. That being said, I liked what we saw from the Cats in their last outing. The healthy return of Jaland Lowe and Denzel Aberdeen has made a huge difference in what we saw in the exhibition games. Defensively, I think Kentucky poses a big challenge for the Cards. Likewise for the Cats’ strength on the glass. Mark Pope also has a lot of depth to throw at Louisville, and there’s not a great drop-off between the starters and the bench. Guys like Aberdeen and Mouhamed Dioubate have a lot of big-game experience, and that could be invaluable in this matchup.
Justin Rowland: Kentucky tends to perform better in this series than Louisville. Some of that is because Kentucky has had more talent and better teams more often than not. But even when you think Louisville has a better chance, more often than not it’s closer than you expect or Kentucky comes out on top. That doesn’t mean this will hold true tonight but it can’t make you feel bad. You feel better about Kentucky football playing against Florida than Tennessee for good reason, I factor game dynamics like that because of years of experience watching how some series take on a life of their own.
The Wildcats are regarded more highly than Louisville nationally by just a hair if you believe preseason publications and pundits. And I think Kentucky has more players who are capable of stepping up and making the kind of splash contributions that could push them over the top. If Kentucky plays like it did against Valparaiso, in other words if Kentucky plays an A game, I think that’s going to be better than Louisville’s A game.
What are the main reasons for concern?
Drummond: Perimeter shooting and free-throw shooting could be the key to this game, and the Cats have been inconsistent in those areas through two exhibition games and two regular-season games. If either of those categories come up short in what figures to be a really close game, it could be a long night for UK. It also seems like preseason SEC Player of the Year Otega Oweh is not fully back in the groove after dealing with the turf toe injury this summer.
Rowland: It’s an early season game and we always thought of Kentucky as a team that will have to hit its stride because of Jaland Lowe starting slow, Otega Oweh coming back from some time away, and Jayden Quaintance’s absence. Given all that it would not be a surprise at all if a talented well-regarded Louisville team can take care of business at home.
I don’t put much stock into any regular season college basketball game when it’s a home win or a road loss. When you start to stack results and trends emerge that can be concerning but this is a tough game on the road against a team, fan base, and coach that have this one circled more than any other game on the schedule. And this year Louisville has some guys who can really hurt them more so than a lot of years in the past.
If UK comes out and plays like it did against Nicholls a win probably isn’t happening.
What’s your prediction for the game and who is your MVP for Kentucky?
Drummond: Kentucky 75, Louisville 71 — It’s a hard-fought game that comes down to the final seconds, but the Cats have too much depth and a guy who delivered in a national championship game in the form of Denzel Aberdeen. He is my MVP with a strong performance on both ends of the floor.
Rowland: I’ll go Kentucky 79, Louisville 78 but could really see it going either way. The fact that Louisville is a 4.5-point favorite is interesting. I’ll say Collin Chandler makes big-time contributions on both ends of the court and has a rivalry game to remember as he starts to really break out this year.