Football Improvement Opportunities: Defending Scott Stadium
UVa opens fall camp next week, ahead of a pivotal 2025 season. With the season opener against Coastal Carolina just over a month away, we’re looking at a few areas of opportunity for the Hoos to improve this fall, in hopes of seeing it translate to a better record and return to the postseason. Today, we’re starting with UVa’s need to better defend their home turf.
Typically teams that struggle over the course of a few years tread water at home but struggle mightily on the road, but for the Hoos, it’s been as tough to get a win on their home field as it has been on the road. In the Tony Elliott era, UVa is just 6-12 in home games. In the same span, UVa is 5-10 on the road, with the same win percentage, 33.3%, as they have at Scott Stadium.
Of UVa’s six home victories, three came against FCS opponents; Richmond twice and William and Mary. Another came at the expense of Group-of-Five ODU. That Monarchs team went 3-9 and it took a game-winning field goal at the gun for the Hoos to pull that one out. Against Power-4 opponents, UVa is just 2-11 at home; against ACC competition, they’re 2-10. Comparing this record against Elliott’s predecessor, it stands in stark contrast. Bronco Mendenhall was a .500 coach at UVa, but in his years leading the program, the Hoos typically were a tough out at home. Virginia went 26-13 at home in the Mendenhall era, and 25-8 after his first year in charge, and 21-12 with fans in the stands, removing the COVID year played in empty stadiums.
There isn’t a specific reason for the downturn at home, except for the fact that UVa has simply struggled across the board during that time. Still, some of the challenges, like attendance and a less-than-intimidating home environment, existed in the Mendenhall era, too, and the program found ways to win those games. Virginia’s home schedules haven’t exactly been a gauntlet, either. In three years, UVa has faced three opponents that were ranked on the day of the game: #22 Pitt in 2022 (the Panthers won by 30), #21 NC State in 2023 (the Wolfpack won on a last-second field goal), and #12 SMU last year (the Mustangs won by 26). UVa has mustered four offensive touchdowns in 180 minutes against ranked opponents at home. If UVa had won home games at the same clip as they did under Mendenhall, the program would be 17-17 under Elliott instead of 11-23; they would have made a bowl game last season, and would have been much closer the previous two seasons.
Attendance has certainly not helped the cause. UVa failed to get a home crowd bigger than 45,000 last year, and averaged 38,999 fans through the gates. Though it’s fair to wonder if that many butts were actually in seats at kickoff, and we can say with certainty that far fewer remained after halftime in most of those games. Enthusiasm has remained pretty low in the fanbase, as least as far as ticket sales go, really since Covid. In the three-year Elliott era, Virginia has had just one 50,000+ crowd, against JMU in the home opener with attendance boosted by a local opponent that brought at least 10,000 fans and UVa fans turned up for that game at least in part as it was the first home game following the tragic shooting in the fall of 2022. Outside of that game, UVa hasn’t hit 45,000+ in attendance since hosting Virginia Tech in 2021, the final game of the Mendenhall era. UVa has had six games under 40,000 fans since 2022, with six coming in ACC games, including two of the three against ranked foes. The fact that those games couldn’t drive out more fans, plus the fact that only 42,976 came to the 2023 game against rival Virginia Tech, which used to be a very tough ticket, demonstrates a lack of demand.
That lack of demand has led to the players having to drum up energy in a half-empty stadium, and a place that opponents have been able to win consistently. It also doesn’t help that the Elliott era has been plagued by early kickoffs, which usually aren’t the best atmospheres. Of the 18 home games in the last three years, 12 have been early kickoffs.
Virginia finally gets a seven-game home slate in 2025, their first since 2021. It’s impossible to know exactly how good a slate of opponents will be, but the schedule looks relatively manageable at this point. The Hoos host three non-conference games, starting with the opener against Coastal Carolina on August 30th. The Chanticleers won’t be a pushover as they’ve been a consistently competitive program in the Sun Belt, but if UVa can play as they did in Conway last year, they’ll have a great chance to start the season 1-0. UVa’s home tilt with William & Mary on September 13th can be categorized as a must-win. The Hoos also host Washington State for Homecomings on October 18th. The Cougars are in a transition year after losing their coach to Wake Forest and a bunch of key transfers to the portal. It’s hard to know what to make of Washington State right now, but it’s another winnable game.
UVa’s ACC schedule features two early-season home games and two near the end of the campaign. UVa hosts Stanford and Florida State in back-to-back weeks in September, the latter game coming on a Friday night. Stanford fired their coach in the spring and hired Frank Reich as an interim replacement; it seems likely, given the shakeup and Stanford’s recent performance, that the Cardinals will be picked to finish near the bottom of the ACC. Florida State is coming off of a rough injury-plagued season, but have talent to turn things around quickly. Their performance will likely come down to the installation of Gus Mahlzahn’s offense and the play of transfer QB Thomas Castellanos, who is oddly the only P4 starting quarterback to lose at Scott Stadium in the Elliott era (Duke played their third-string QB in 2023).
Virginia hosts Wake Forest in November. The Deacs are in a reset under new coach Jake Dickert, and will likely be picked towards the bottom of the ACC, but have some intriguing talent, with competitive upside. And then of course, there’s Virginia Tech to end the regular season. The Hokies are breaking in two new coordinators and seem to be in a pivotal year four under Brent Pry.
It’s not exactly a murderer’s row, and for a team that has thrived at home, it looks like a pretty manageable slate of conference games.
UVa has every opportunity to have a successful home season in 2025. If they can get off to a fast start, perhaps that will lead to better home-field environments, which will increase the likelihood of more home wins. If UVa can’t get it together on their home field, and the program ends up making changes, then we’ll look back at the past four seasons as an era with a strangely low success rate at Scott Stadium.
