2026 NCAA Tournament Predictions: First regular season Bracketology follows early results

The college basketball season is officially underway, with teams across the country already looking to establish their nonconference resume for Selection Sunday. As more analytic models put out their early numbers the data continues to take sharp shifts which will stabilize over time.

The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm that ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-team bracket in March. Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season while accounting for other factors that impact the final bracket.

Until the NET Rankings officially release with a set of data, other metrics and preseason projections fill the gap. Using that information, here is another early look at the 2026 Bracketology field.

Bracketology

Projected 1-line: Houston, Duke, Purdue, Florida
Last four byes: Virginia, Iowa, Texas, Georgia
Last four in: Cincinnati, Nebraska, Maryland, Mississippi State
First four out: West Virginia, Clemson, Texas A&M, Washington

First Four (Dayton)

16 Southern (SWAC) vs. 16 Norfolk State (MEAC)
16 SIUE (OVC) vs. 16 LIU (NEC)
11 Cincinnati vs. 11 Nebraska
11 Maryland vs. 11 Mississippi State

South (Houston)

Oklahoma City
1 Houston (Big 12) vs. 16 Southern/Norfolk State
8 St. Mary’s vs. 9 Oregon
Portland
5 Michigan State vs. 12 Liberty (CUSA)
4 Alabama vs. 13 McNeese (Southland)
Buffalo
6 North Carolina vs. 11 Maryland/Mississippi State
3 Kentucky vs. 14 ETSU (SoCon)
St. Louis
7 UCLA vs. 10 Texas
2 Iowa State vs. 15 Montana (Big Sky)

1-seed Houston

Houston has made an early case as one of the best teams in college basketball, currently holding the top spot in the early Bracketology projections. The Cougars have a younger roster than last season’s Final Four team, but possess as much, if not more, talent to build around.

2-seed Iowa State

Iowa State brings back an experienced core of players from last season, all clicking together well early in the non-conference slate. The Cyclones again look the part of a top seed as role players continue to develop into their new positions on the team.

West (San Jose)

Tampa
1 Florida (SEC) vs. 16 Navy (Patriot)
8 NC State vs. 9 Ohio State
Portland
5 Vanderbilt vs. 12 High Point (Big South)
4 BYU vs. 13 Hawaii (Big West)
San Diego
6 Auburn vs. 11 Utah State (MWC)
3 Arizona vs. 14 Troy (SBC)
Philadelphia
7 Baylor vs. 10 Georgia
2 Illinois vs. 15 FGCU (ASUN)

1-seed Florida

Florida has started well in defense of its national title, even with an opening loss against Arizona. The Gators have already found traction with the new-look roster which leans on the returning talent it brings back in the frontcourt.

2-seed Illinois

Illinois has put together a solid string of results early in the season which show that they have potential to land among the top seeds this season. The Fighting Illini have blended the combination of transfer talent, incoming recruits from across the globe, and returning talent well so far.

East (Washington)

Tampa
1 Duke (ACC) vs. 16 Siena (MAAC)
8 Ole Miss vs. 9 Creighton
San Diego
5 Texas Tech vs. 12 Akron (MAC)
4 St. John’s vs. 13 Utah Valley (WAC)
Greenville
6 Indiana vs. 11 St. Louis (A10)
3 UConn (Big East) vs. 14 Towson (CAA)
Philadelphia
7 Arkansas vs. 10 Cincinnati/Nebraska
2 Michigan vs. 15 Vermont (AEC)

1-seed Duke

Duke again looks the part early with one of college basketball’s top freshmen leading the way for a unit which combines size and length to dominate against most opponents. The Blue Devils look to ramp up their competition in the coming weeks as they round out the non-conference resume.

2-seed Michigan

Michigan has survived multiple close games already, but the analytics and preseason projections still believe in what this unit can become once the rotation is solidified. The Wolverines will need to round into form sooner than later as the challenges keep coming on the schedule.

Midwest (Chicago)

St. Louis
1 Purdue (Big Ten) vs. 16 SIUE/LIU
8 USC vs. 9 Virginia
Buffalo
5 Wisconsin vs. 12 Yale (Ivy)
4 Tennessee vs. 13 Murray State (MVC)
Portland
6 Missouri vs. 11 Memphis (American)
3 Gonzaga (WCC) vs. 14 Oakland (Horizon)
St. Louis
7 Kansas vs. 10 Iowa
2 Louisville vs. 15 South Dakota State (Summit)

1-seed Purdue

Purdue remains in the mix to be the top overall seed early this season, but falls just below Houston and Duke in the early computer numbers. However, the Boilermakers have a resume which matches up with anyone and could build that in the weeks and months to come.

2-seed Louisville

Louisville has started the season off hot, picking up an in-state rivalry win to provide an early resume boost. The Cardinals have a deep rotation which has already started clicking and could find even more chemistry throughout the season.