Preview: No. 11 Illinois at Duke
DURHAM – Illinois comes to Wallace Wade having won 10 games last season. The Illini return a plethora of staters on both sides of the ball. They’re replacing the top two receivers from last year’s team. Last week, Illinois beat an FCS team and returned a punt for a touchdown.
Sound familiar?
Illinois and Duke are not carbon copies of each other. But they’re more similar than they are different.
The Blue Devils won nine games last year, also return a chunk of starters, lost their top two receivers, and beat an FCS team with a punt return score last week.
“When you have an opponent coming in like Illinois, as well-coached as they are, as many good players as they have,” coach Manny Diaz said, “we have a chance to really show the nation who we are and what we’re all about.”
Nuts and bolts for Illinois-Duke
Time: Noon.
Location: Wallace Wade Stadium.
TV: ESPN.
Announcers: Dave Pasch (play-by-play), Dusty Dvoracek (analyst), Taylor McGregor (sidelines).
Radio link: Click here to listen to the crew that knows Duke best.
Forecast: Mid-80s, sunny, winds around 5 mph at kickoff; high-80s, maybe some clouds, 20% chance of rain by game’s end.
Series; last meeting: Tied 1-1; Illinois won 28-14 in 1965.
Records: Illinois 1-0; Duke 1-0.
What to know for Illinois-Duke
Stat to watch: 7.46.
That’s how many yards per play Illinois had last week against Western Illinois. The Illini had 440 yards and only needed 59 plays.
It’s a clip better than all but one of Illinois’ 13 games last season; falling short of 7.62 against Purdue in a 50-49 win.
Duke, meanwhile, allowed more than 7.46 yards per play once last season — 8.41 by Mississippi in the Gator Bowl. The Blue Devils only allowed more than 7 yards per play in one regular-season game, which was at Miami.
Matchup to watch: Duke’s downfield passing attack vs. Illinois’ secondary.
Duke’s passing attack was explosive in the season opener to the tune of 389 yards.
Things will get more difficult in this game (which isn’t breaking news).
Illinois returned all five starters from a secondary that was decent last season, allowing 6.6 yards per pass (tied for 35th in the country). Against an overmatched Western Illinois team last week, the Illini only allowed 134 yards on 29 passes (4.6 yards per pass).
Quote of the week: “Having been in that league, I almost look at that as an insult to the Big Ten. I feel like that’s kind of what it was. I think the Big Ten has evolved ever since Urban Meyer went through Columbus.” – Diaz pushing back on the stereotype that Big Ten teams are more physical than others and rely on a smashmouth style of football.
(Diaz’s time in the Big Ten were two seasons as Penn State’s defensive coordinator before being hired at Duke. The last season he was there, 2023, Penn State beat Illinois 30-13.)
Players to watch
Opposing offensive player to watch: Wide receiver Hank Beatty (No. 80).
If you break a 102-year-old record held by Red Grange …
Beatty had 133 punt return yards last week, including a 69-yarder for a touchdown. Grange — the Galloping Ghost — had 125 punt return yards in a 1923 game.
It wasn’t just about the big returns, though.
The receiver position was the biggest question mark for the Illini entering the season. Beatty had 20 catches for 294 yards last season; he had five for 108 yards in the opener.
According to Pro Football Focus, 90.2% of Beatty’s career snaps have been in the slot. That means he’ll likely be covered by Duke’s Jaiden Francois or Chandler Rivers.
Opposing defensive player to watch: Linebacker Gabe Jacas (No. 17).
Jacas was a monster as an edge rusher last season and wasted little time racking up stats in the season opener.
The 6-3, 270-pounder had eight sacks and three forced fumbles last season. He had five tackles, two sacks, one forced fumble and one pass broken-up against Western Illinois — and only needed to play 33 snaps (per PFF).
Young Blue Devil to watch: Safety Andrew Pellicciotta (No. 35).
Might as well get used to the name now.
Of the several freshmen who played against Elon, Pellicciotta was arguably the most impressive. The 5-11, 200-pounder had an overall grade of 71.2, the best of any safety or nickel.
“I’ll tell you, Andrew Pellicciotta looked right at home,” Diaz said. “Flying around making tackles, it was not too big for him.”
Mini-takes on Illinois-Duke
What a Duke loss looks like: Feels like this is a game Duke probably loses if it doesn’t do one of the following two things — and if it can’t do either, a definite loss.
– Get pressure on quarterback Luke Atlmyer and create havoc in Illinois’ backfield.
– Establish a consistent and reliable running game.
There’s going to be a contrast of speeds here. Duke wants to play faster than Illinois. The Blue Devils can win a low-snap, grind-it-out game in this one — but the lower number of plays in this one, the more likely an Illinois win becomes.
What a Duke win looks like: Doing the two things above would be a nice foundation.
Or Darian Mensah can throw for another 350-plus yards and three touchdowns. If he’s still on a roll from last Thursday night, Duke can put a big number on the scoreboard.
But the most likely scenario is this winds up a close, competitive, four-quarter game. One team is going to make one game-swinging play late that’s bound to win it.
More often than not, in the past three seasons at Wallace Wade Stadium, that team has been Duke.
