2025 Season Opener Preview: Army vs. Tarleton State Matchup Breakdown
Curtis Harris, GBK Football Analyst, breaks down Army’s 2025 season opener against Tarleton State.
Matchup Overview
Army Black Knights
- 2024 Recap: Army exploded to a 12–2 record, won the AAC championship in their first season in the conference, and returned to the CFP Top 25 for the first time in program history
- Program Strength: Defense remains a strong suit—Army led the AAC in scoring defense last year, returning five primary starters and several contributors
- Offensive Transition: Replacing Bryson Daily—2024 AAC Offensive Player of the Year and record-setting QB—is the biggest question mark. Dewayne Coleman is expected to step in as starter after a mixed performance in limited action last year.
- Home Field Edge: Under Head Coach Jeff Monken, Army is 46–10 in home games since 2016. They open the season at Michie Stadium, their first of five home games in 2025
Tarleton State Texans
- Recent FCS Success: Tarleton State enters the 2025 season ranked No. 6 in Hero Sports’ FCS Preseason Top 25, after finishing 10–4 in 2024 and making the second round of the FCS Playoffs
- Returning Core: All‑Conference QB Victor Gabalis leads the offense. The defense returns 11 of its top 12 tacklers, including standout DL Brandon Tolvert and safety Blake Smith
- Roster Turnover: Lost its top two WRs and star RB (~2,000 rush yards), but added strong transfer depth across the line and skill positions, including incoming RB Tylan Hines from Hawaii and several offensive line reinforcements
- Strategic Scheme: Runs a pro-spread offense under longtime head coach Todd Whitten, paired with a 4–3 defense under Tyrone Nix
Key Factors & Themes
| Category | Army (FBS) | Tarleton State (FCS) |
| Experience | AAC champion, proven defensive continuity | Rising FCS program, fast upward trajectory |
| Quarterback Play | Uncertainty replacing Daily with Coleman | Gabalis experienced, efficient signal‑caller |
| Defense | Elite, disciplined, experienced unit | Notable returners and dynamic front seven |
| Roster Depth | Loss of top offensive playmakers but OL returns | Many transfers plugging holes; offensive depth helps |
| Upside for upset | High—power option, home-field energy | Confident, strong defense, motivated to prove FCS can compete |
Betting & Projection Notes
- FCS Over FBS Upset Watch: HERO Sports lists Tarleton State at #8 among most likely 2025 FCS-over-FBS wins. A win over a 2024 12‑win Army would mark just their second ever FBS victory. Their previous FBS win was a 2021 rout of New Mexico State (43‑17)
- Consensus and Odds: As of early August, no official betting lines or spreads have been published — the matchup is fresh, with both teams 0–0
Final Thoughts & What to Watch
- How Army Opens the Season Without Bryson Daily: Their triple‑option attack is legendary, but Coleman must demonstrate command and protect the football.
- Tarleton’s Offensive Efficiency: Can Gabalis and the new weapons sustain scoring against a disciplined Army defense?
- Turnovers & Field Position: Classic service academy games often come down to turnovers and special teams — focus will be on who wins the hidden yardage battle.
- Flow of the Game: Early success by Tarleton State may force Army to try to play faster, potentially opening up mismatches in space.
Pregame Prediction
- Army is expected to control the line of scrimmage, feed their run-heavy attack, and lean into their veteran defense. However, Tarleton State has the firepower and motivation to make this competitive, especially early.
- A dominant Army win is the most likely outcome, but an upset by Tarleton isn’t out of the question if they force turnovers and sustain drives.
