Conference Championship Weekend: Which games could impact the Sooners?

When it comes to making the College Football Playoff, Oklahoma fans don’t have to worry.

The Sooners all-but-certainly sealed their bid for the playoff on Tuesday, when the CFP Committee left them at No. 8 following their 17-13 win over LSU. The Sooners finished the regular season with a 10-2 record and one of the best resumes in the country.

CFP Chairman Hunter Yurachek said on Tuesday that teams who aren’t playing in Conference Championship weekend can move “up or down” depending on the results, but the Sooners can feel confident about where they are in the field.

Last season, only one team exited the top eight after Conference Championship weekend and that was SMU, who fell to Clemson in the ACC Championship game. Tennessee, which was ranked No. 8 going into the weekend, jumped one spot to No. 7 in the final rankings despite not playing in the SEC Championship.

As of now, the Sooners are getting the best of both worlds. They’re at No. 8 and in line to host a first-round playoff game in Norman, and they get to rest for Conference Championship weekend.

However, their hopes of hosting a first-round game are riding on the results of this weekend. Here are the games that could impact the Sooners’ hopes of hosting:

SEC Championship: No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 9 Alabama

Game info: 3 p.m. Saturday, ABC

Previous meeting: Alabama beat Georgia, 41-24, in Week 8

Everything for the Sooners depends on this game.

If Georgia wins, the Crimson Tide will almost certainly stay behind the Sooners. The Sooners already beat the Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa last month, which is why they were ranked one spot ahead of them in Tuesday’s rankings.

While the Crimson Tide’s appearance in the SEC title game almost certainly guarantees them a playoff spot regardless, a Georgia win would give them a third loss and very likely keep them from moving ahead of the Sooners.

However, this game does have farther-reaching implications. If Alabama loses, will it remain at No. 9? Or will the Committee drop them? And if so, how far? That could certainly impact who the Sooners might host in the first round.

It’s also interesting to consider where Georgia could end up if the Crimson Tide win, but it’s highly unlikely the Bulldogs would drop low enough for to impact the Sooners in a meaningful way.

Preferred outcome: For OU fans, it’s simple. Root for Georgia.

No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 11 BYU

Game info: 11 a.m. Saturday, ABC

Previous meeting: Texas Tech beat BYU, 34-10, in Week 4

This game also has direct consequences for the Sooners, and either outcome could have an impact.

The simplest outcome? If Texas Tech wins, there will be little movement in the rankings. The Red Raiders as Big 12 Champions would hang onto a top-four seed, while the Cougars would likely miss out on the playoffs in favor of an ACC team or the winner of the American Conference.

However, the most chaos would come if the Cougars win. A victory would guarantee the Cougars a playoff spot. Even with a loss, it’s incredibly unlikely the Red Raiders would fall out of the playoff.

So where would that leave the Sooners?

Could the Cougars leap the Sooners with a win? And in that case, would the Red Raiders still be ranked ahead of the Sooners? Or is it possible they would drop below them?

Preferred outcome: For OU fans, it’s simple. Root for Texas Tech to win.

Most likely outcomes

The Sooners are hosting if: Georgia and Texas Tech win. They would likely host Notre Dame in the 8-9 game.

The Sooners are likely on the road if: Alabama and BYU win.

If Alabama and BYU win, the Sooners could travel to several places. Traveling to Texas Tech for the 7-10 game could be the most likely scenario, but Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Oregon aren’t off the table either.

Things get crazy if: BYU wins and Alabama loses.

This is where all scenarios are on the table. Would BYU leap Alabama and the Sooners? And how does that impact Notre Dame?

Summary

While a lot of things could happen this weekend, there’s a few things we know for sure.

Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Oklahoma are ranked 6, 7 and 8, respectively. With all three teams resting this weekend, that block feels settled. The Sooners won’t jump them, and it’s unlikely they can move up any higher than No. 8.

The Committee also tinkered with the rankings on Tuesday, possibly to avoid rematches in the first round. Alabama jumped from No. 10 to No. 9 on Tuesday, leapfrogging Notre Dame in the process. That makes it unlikely the Sooners will play Alabama in the first round, regardless if the Crimson Tide win or lose on Saturday.

There’s other chaos that could come to the playoff field, particularly if Duke upsets Virginia in the ACC title game. But for the Sooners, the focus will be on the SEC and Big 12 title games.

Let the chaos begin.

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